Electricity Demand Analysis in Iran by Using Cointegration and ARIMA Modeling (1363-1388)

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 6، دوره 15، شماره 25، مهر 1387   

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/pm.v15i25.1814

نویسندگان

سعید صمدی صمدی^* ؛ شهیدی شهیدی؛ محمدی محمدی

چکیده

Electricity industry is older than 100 years in the world and every nation has selected a kind of system depends on interference of government or private sector in electricity industry. But today, generally, in all over the world, electricity industry is moving towards competitive markets and process of reforming structure. Electricity industry in Iran is passing a new structure from natural monopoly structure to competitive markets in which producers compete for selling energy. In this sitvation, study about the situation of economical industry of electricity in Iran is too important. Using cointegration analysis and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling; the present article focuses on this issue by both providing electricity demand estimation and forecast for electricity demand in Iran. The study concludes that consumers' respond to price and income changes is quite limited and therefore there is a need for economic regulation in Iran electricity market. Furthermore, forecasting future demand indicate that per capita demand of electricity increases with annual growth rate of 4/4 percent and this shows that growth rate of electricity consumption in Iran is very high