Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Import Demand of MENA Member Countries

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای

Article 10, Volume 21, Issue 8, February 2015   

Document Type: Research article

DOI: 10.22067/erd.v21i8.43936

Authors

Mehdi Behrad-Amin^* ; Gholamreza Zamanian

Abstract

University of Sistan and Baluchestan

Abstract
The exchange rate as a key variable in economic policies have been considered. Moreover , the volatility and uncertainty of exchange rates and their effects on international trade in terms of policy is extremely important. Although most trade models argue that exchange rate volatility increases the uncertainty and risk and therefore reduce trade flows, including imports, however, some studies suggests the opposite. This study investigates the impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on import demand of member countries of the MENA. The period of study is during 1980 – 2012. The EGARCH model is used to generate the log of GARCH variance series and the panel data with random effects method was used to estimation of the model. The variable of real exchange rate uncertainty imposes a negative impact on real import in the long run. In the long run, a rise in real exchange rate uncertainty can improve the country’s trade balance by substantially lowering import demand, but can harm industrial production at the same time. Therefore, stabilization of real effective exchange rate via major nominal exchange rates may deem necessary.

Key words : exchange rate uncertainty, EGARCH, imports, Panel data

JEL Classification : F11, F14, F17, F31

Keywords

exchange rate uncertainty; EGARCH; imports; Panel Data

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