Evaluation of Bilateral Trade Potentials Between lran and EU Countries

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 5، دوره 16، شماره 28، اسفند 1388   

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/pm.v16i28.2604

نویسندگان

حسینی حسینی^* ؛ پرمه پرمه

چکیده

This article is intended to assess the capacity and trade potential in products between Iran and 25 European Union member countries by using 4 indices of Drysdale, Cosines, Trade Potential and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) for the period of 1999-2003. Some findings of the research are as follows: The estimation of Iran’s export potential for exporting to the European Union members during the period of 1999-2003 shows that the most part of Iran’s export potential belongs to Germany with an annual amount of $1/24billion. Countries such as Italy, Netherlands, France and Belgium have the next high ranks respectively. The least value of Iran’s export potential with an amount of $5 million belongs to newly acceded countries to European Union including Slovenia, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovak, Estonia and Malta. The most part of the Iran’s unused export potential belongs to UK (89%) and next ranks belong to Netherlands, Finland and Portugal. As regards Iran’s import potential, the highest rank belongs to Germany ($3/7 billion) and next ranks are for Italy, France and Belgium. On the other hand, the least value of Iran’s import potential, with less than $100milion, is for Cyprus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Malta. According to Drysdale Index calculation, Italy had the highest degree of trade complementarily with Iran in 1999 and countries such as Poland, Slovenia, Lithuania and Spain had the next ranks. In the same period, the least degree of trade complementarily belonged to Estonia, Latvia and Ireland. This index had been faced with some fluctuations during the period. The value of Drysdale Index for Lithuania, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and Finland was more than 1 and for the others was less than 1. Cosines Index for Iran’s export and EU’s import also indicates that Cyprus and Ireland has the most potential for trade cooperation with Iran, while the Malta has the least one. The important point is that the differences of index values among the EU countries are very low. Cosines Index for Iran’s import and EU’s export also shows that UK and Austria have the highest degree of potential for trade cooperation with Iran and Malta has the lowest one. The findings show that 25 of EU member countries and Iran have totally about 4944 items of goods for export according to the “RCA” index. Italy with 2097 items and Malta with 168 items have the most and least ranks in this field. Among the 4944 “RCA” items, 4637 items (94%) belong to EU member countries and only 307 items (6%) belong to Iran.

Keywords: Trade Promotion, Trade Capacity, Bilateral Trade Potential, European Union and Iran.