اثربی ثباتی اقتصاد کلان بر نرخ باروری زنان در ایران (با کاربرد داده های پانل استانی)

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای

مقاله 2، دوره 22، شماره 10، اسفند 1394، صفحه 1-15   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/erd.v22i10.45526

نویسنده

زهرا افشاری^*

دانشگاه الزهرا

چکیده

در این مقاله به بررسی اثر بی ثباتی اقتصاد کلان بر نرخ باروری زنان در استان های ایران در دوره ی زمانی 1385-1391 پرداخته شده است .
نتایج نشان می دهد که یک رابطه ی منفی بین سطح توسعه استان و نرخ باروری وجود دارد. از آنجا که توسعه اقتصادی و تغییرات متعاقب آن باعث افزایش سطح آموزش عالی زنان ، و در نتیجه افزایش سن ازدواج می شود بر نرخ باروری اثر منفی دارند. نتایج این مدل با نظریه نوسازی لیبنشتاین مطابقت دارد. همچنین نقطه مقابل برخی از تحقیقات نتایج این تحقیق نشان می دهد که باروری یک واکنش مثبت به نرخ مشارکت زنان و نرخ رشد در امد سرانه و یک واکنش منفی به بیکاری نشان می دهد. ننایج حاصل با دیدگاه مکتب پنسیلوانیا که پیش بینی میکند که باروری رفتار موافق ادواری داردهم سو است .

کلیدواژه‌ها

باروری؛ نرخ مشارکت زنا ن؛ بیکاری؛ رشد محصول ناخالص سرانه؛ داده های پانل

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