نگرشی امنیت پژوهانه به بحران های پایه ای قرن 21

پژوهش ‎های جغرافیای سیاسی

مقاله 6، دوره 2، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 7، اسفند 1396، صفحه 127-167   

نوع مقاله: مقالات علمی -پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/pg.v2i7.72368

نویسندگان

محسن جان پرور؛ آرش قربانی سپهر^* ؛ محمدرضا میرشکاری

دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

جهان امروز شاهد پیشرفت­ها و تغییرات در عرصه­ های مختلفی بوده است. این تغییرات در عرصه فناوری­ ها، علم و غیره اگر چه با هدف رفاه و آسایش انسان­ها به انجام رسیده است اما در کنار خود، به نوعی زمینه شکل‎گیری بحران­های جدید در حوزه‌های مختلف را فراهم آورده است. به بیانی دیگر، تحولات ناشی از پیشرفت­ در حوزه­ های مختلف جهت رفاه و آسایش انسان­ها، زمینه شکل­دهی به اشکال جدیدی از بحران­ها را فراهم آورده است. تحقیق حاضر با روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و مبتنی بر یافته ­های کتابخانه­ ای تلاش کرده است که مهمترین بحران­ها در عصر حاضر را مورد شناسایی قرار بدهد. نتایج حاصل از تحقیق حاضر نشان دهنده آن است که با وجود تعدد بحران­ها در عصر حاضر شش بحران پایه­ای در قرن 21 به صورت غالب، جهان را تحت سیطره خود درآورده و سرچشمه سایر بحران­ها خواهد بود. این بحران­ها عبارتند از تغییرات اقلیمی، انرژی، غذا، آب، جنگل­ها و ناپایداری شهرها. شناخت این بحران­های پایه­ای در قرن حاضر کمک خواهد کرد که ریشه سایر بحران­ها شناسایی شده و به صورت اساسی با بحران­های پیش­رو جوامع انسانی برخورد شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

امنیت پژوهی؛ بحران؛ قرن 21

مراجع

1. Adeli, E. & Yakshshaki, A. (1975). Forest Support. Tehran: Tehran University Press. (In Persian).

2. Ahmadi, S. (2011). Application of Conflict Strategy (CSI) in Determining Food Security Status, Case Study: Ali Abad Katoul, Master's Degree in Agricultural Economics, Gorgan, University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Supervisor: Farhad Shirani Beid Abadi. . (In Persian).

3. Alavi, A. S. (2012). Unstable margin, challenge to the sustainable city, Journal of Seven Cities. 3(41-42). 80-72. (In Persian).

4. Ardakani, S. R., & Daraei, M. (2016). Water and Drought Crisis and its Impact on Urban Life. Paper presented at Third Ecological Conference and Exhibition and Future Crisis, Tehran: Iran. . (In Persian).

5. Badri, S.A. (2006). Introduction to Crisis Management (Principles and Basics), Educational booklet of the municipal organization and rural. . (In Persian).

6. Bagherzadeh Azar, F., Ranjpour, R., Karimi Takanlou, Z., Motakkar Azad, M. A., & Asadzadeh, A (2016). The Impact of Economic Variables on Food Security in the Provinces of Iran: Measuring and Comparing, Journal Applied Theories of Economics, 3(4), 76-47. (In Persian).

7. Bemanian, M.R., & Mahmoudinejad, H. (2009). Urban Security and Design. Tehran: Heleh Publications. (In Persian).

8. Biranvand, A., Babaei Kafaki, S., & Kiadaliri, H. (2011). Investigation the Ecological Factors Affecting Fire Spread in Forest Ecosystems (Case Study: Kakareza-Lorestan). Journal of Renewable Natural Resources Research. 2(2), 1-13. (In Persian).

9. BP. (2008). Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2008. Pdf,P. P. 7-8,Accessed at: www. b. p. com.

10. Braden, K. Shelly, F (2000). Engaging Geopolitics, London, person Education.

11. Bruinsma, J (2003). World Agriculture: Towards 2015/2030. An FAO Perspective. Earthscan, London.

12. Bulkeley, H. and Newell, P (2015). Governing climate change,Second edition. Routledge, London and New York.

13. Coyle, E.D. Simmons, R.A (2014). Understanding the Global Energy Crisis, Purdue Studies in Pulic Policy, Purdue University Press e-books.

14. Derakhshan. M. (2012). Energy Security and Future Developments in Oil and Gas Markets, Strategic Quarterly, 21(64), 188-159. (In Persian).

15. Dolatshahi Piruz, M. & Tahmasebi Ashtiani, H. (2010). Human, Energy, Environment and Outlook to the Future, Strategic Quarterly, 19(56). 343-313. (In Persian).

16. Ebrahimzadeh, I., Esmaeil Negad, M. (2017). The Future Challenge of Climatic Refugees Regional Developments Case study: South Khorasan. Geography and development Iranian Journal, 15(48), 1-18. (In Persian).

17. Eftekhari, A., & Nasri, Gh. (2004). Methodology and theory in security research. Tehran: Strategic Studies Research Center. (In Persian).

18. Emadzadeh, M., Sharifi, A. M, Dallali Isfahani, R. & Safdari, M. (2003). An analysis of the trend of energy intensity in countries: OECD. Journal of Business Research. 28. 118-95. (In Persian).

19. Farajzadeh Asl, M. & Beygom Hosseini, A. (2007). Neyshabour plain water crisis analysis, Journal of Humanities, Special Issue of Geography. 238-215. (In Persian).

20. Farajzadeh, D., Tavakkoli, R. & Sarrafpour, R. (2003). Food Arrangements and Planning Model for Crisis Situations. Journal of Military Medicine. 5. 318-309. ([In Persian).

21. Ghaffarian, M. R., Salehi, A. & Bashari, N. (2016). Climate Change; Maintain production resources to support food security. Tehran: Third Crisis Management Comprehensive Conference. 10-1(In Persian).

22. Ghalibaf, M. B., Pishgahifard, Z. & Hosseini, S. M. (2014). Analysis the Role of Food in Geopolitical Competition with Emphasis on Geopolitics of Food. International Quarterly of Geopolitics. 10(1). 189-160. (In Persian).

23. Ghalibaf, M. B., Pishgahifard, Z., Afzali, R. & Hosseini, S. M. (2014). Exploring and explaining the role of food in geopolitical contests with an emphasis on food geopolitics, International Quarterly of Geopolitics, 10(1). 189-160. (In Persian).

24. Ghorbani Sepehr, A., Janparvar, M. & Mirashkari, M. R. (2017). A Realistic Attitude to Hydropolitics in Southwest Asia. Proceedings of the Conference on Water Diplomacy and Hydropolytic Opportunities in West Asia. 21-1. (In Persian).

25. Gonzalez perez, J. A. , GonzalezVila, F.J., Almendors, G., Knicker, H (2004). The effect of fire on Soil organic matter- a review. Environ. Int. 30, 855-870.

26. Hafeznia, M. R. (2011). Principles and Concepts of Geopolitics, Third edition, Mashhad: Papeli publication. (In Persian).

27. Hashtarkhani, S. (2011). Effective factors on caloric demand in urban areas of Iran, Master's Thesis for Economic Sciences, Payame Noor University of Tehran, Supervisor: Farhad Khodadad Kashi. (In Persian).

28. http://www. daneshnameh.roshd.ir

29. http://www.drynet-net.org

30. International Organization for Migration (IOM) , (2010). Assessing the Evidence: Environment, Climate Change and Migration in Bangladesh (Dhaka: IOM), 26.

31. Iran Water Resources Management Organization. (2011). Summary of the country's water comprehensive plan. (In Persian).

32. Irandost, K. (2009). Informal Settlements and Marginal Myths, Tehran: processing Company and Urban Publications. (In Persian).

33. Izadi, H. (2015). Food Tourism, An opportunity for sustainable rural development in Iran. Rural Research Quarterly, 6(1), 96-65. (In Persian).

34. Janparvar, M., & Ghorbani Sepehr, A. (2017). Urban Geopolitics, Tehran: Publications of Iranian Association of Geopolitics. (In Persian).

35. Janparvar, M., & Taghizadeh Saroukolai, A. (2016). Human Hazards, Tehran: Entekhab publication. (In Persian).

36. Jensen, M. N (2006). More Large Forest Fires Linked to Climate Change, The University of Arizona: Global Warming update.

37. Kaviani rad, M. (2011). Processing of the Concept of Environmental Security (the relationship of security and ecology), International Quarterly of Geopolitics. 7(3). 100-80. (In Persian).

38. Mahkouee, H., Jajarmi, K. & Pishgahifard, Z. (2014). Environmental Threats in Geopolitical Countries of the Persian Gulf, Emphasizing Water Resources Crisis, Journal of Regional Planning, 4(13). 143-133. (In Persian).

39. Modiri, A. (2006). Crime, Crime, Violence and Security in the Public Spaces of the City, Journal of Social Welfare Research, 6(22). 28-11. (In Persian).

40. Mohammad Jani, I. & Yazdanian, N. (2014). Analysis of the State of the Water Crisis in the Country and Its Management Requirements, Trend Journal, 21(65-66).144-117. (In Persian).

41. Mohammadi, H. (2008). Atmospheric hazards, Tehran: Tehran University Press.

42. Mojtahedzadeh, P. (2002). Political Geography and Geographic policy, Tehran: Semat Publication. (In Persian).

43. Nellemann, C., Henriksen, R., Raxter, P., Ash, N., Mrema, E (2014). The Environmental Crime Crisis – Threats to Sustainable Development from Illegal Exploitation and Trade in Wildlife and Forest Resources. A UNEP Rapid Response Assessment. United Nations Environment Programme and GRID-Arendal, Nairobi and Arendal.

44. Rahimi, F. (2013). Energy Crisis, Following the Growing Energy Consumption in the World, Iranian Economic Newspaper, 10 (2474). (In Persian).

45. Rahimi, H. (2003). Water Crisis; The World's Unclear Problem, Peyk Nour Magazine, 1(2), 33-23. (In Persian).

46. Rastad, H. (2009). Investigation the effect of fire on physical and chemical properties of soil and restitution in forested grassland masses in Gilan province forests, MSc master's degree in forestry, Gilan University. To the advice of Dr. Ali Salehi. (In Persian).

47. Razavian, Mohammad Taghi and Parviz Aghaee (2013). Investigating and evaluating the sense of social security in the sample neighborhood case (Comparative Study of Jamaran and Fatemi Localities), Geographical Quarterly and Urban Planning of Zagros Outlook, 6(20). 57-43. (In Persian).

48. Reiss, Martin (2013). Last century, translation by Hossein Davari, Tehran: Ketab Nashr Publishing. (In Persian).

49. Rezvani, M., & Hashemzadeh, F. (2013). Investigating the Effective Factors on the Destruction of Forests and the Effect of Exit of Traps on the Area of the Northern Forests of the North of Iran (Fouman), Journal of Wood and Forest Technology Science, 20(138). 125-138. (In Persian).

50. Sabermaash Eshghi, N., Mohseni, S. (2000). Wind Energy Efficiency, A Stage for Sustainable Development. Kerman: Proceedings of the Third National Conference on Environmental Health. (In Persian).

51. Sadeghi, S. Sh. (2012). Russian Energy Policy Strategy in Eurasia: Opportunities and Obstacles. Foreign Relations Quarterly. 4(1). 246-219. (In Persian).

52. Sarafi, M. (2002). Internal migration and the issue of urban management, with emphasis on the conditions of Iran. Urban Management Quarterly. 3(10). 15-6. (In Persian).

53. Sh, S. h. & Damari, B. (2017). Conceptual Model of Food Security and Nutrition in Iran, Journal of Research Center for Social Factors Affecting Health, 4(3). 237-228. (In Persian).

54. Shakib, H. & Moghadasi Mousavi, A. (2006). Crisis management in the capital, Proceedings of the second construction seminar in the capital, Tehran University, 13-1. (In Persian).

55. Shamsipour, A. A., Miri, M. & Safarrad, T. (2012). Statistical analysis of the dust phenomenon in the southwestern part of Iran, Journal of Ecology, 38(3). 134-123. (In Persian).

56. Shamspooya, M. K., Mohammad Nejad, A., Lashgari, A., & Ghorbani Sepehr. (2017). Governance of Climate Change, Mashhad: Papeli Publications. (In Persian).

57. South centre.(2016). Food and Energy Crisis: Time to Rethink Development Policy. Reflections from the High Level North-South Dialogue on Food and. Energy Security, South Centre, Geneva, 17 Juan.

58. Sultana, F (2011). Suffering for water, suffering from water: motional geographies of resource access, control and conflit, Geography Department.

59. Taheri, A. & Dindar, L. (2012). Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Seafood with Emphasis on the Sea of Makran. The First National Conference on the Development of Makran Coasts and Islamic Republic of Iran's Marine Authority. Chabahar. 6-1. (In Persian).

60. Taheri, S. D. & Alizadeh, K. (2011). Access and maintain water resources in crisis, Avicenna Scientific Journal, Fourteenth. 1(2). 60-56. (In Persian).

61. UN-HABITAL (2003). The Challeng os Slums, Global Report on Human Settlement, The United Nations Human Settlements Program, Nairobi, Kenia.

62. Velayati, S. & Kadivar, A. A. (2006). Environmental Challenges of Iran's Forests and Rangeland and Its Consequences, Journal of Geography and Regional Development. 7. 72-53. (In Persian).

63. Wallace, A (2016). Indian Water Crisis Cause and Effect: Political and Agricultural, Filed Under News, scribewilcox.com.

64. World Watch Institute (2007). State of the World, New York.

65. Yazdani, E. & Tuyserkani, M. (2011). An Analysis of the Geopolitical Competitions of Powers in the Strategic Energy Ellipse. Journal of Geographic Research. 26(4). 186-149. (In Persian).

66. Zamani, S. (2009). The world is facing a food security crisis, Journal of the Report, 19(214). 51-50. (In Persian).

67. Zare Salmasi, H. (1995). Introduction to Sustainable Development, Forest and Rangeland Journal, No 29. 48-43. (In Persian).

68. Zare, A. (2004). The Importance of Trees and the station of Forests in Iran, Journal of the Islamic Association of Students of Moscow, 9. 7-3. (In Persian).

69. Zarghani, S. H., Sajasi Ghedar, H. & Mousavi S. Z. (2016). Income on Immigration and Security, Tehran: Geopolitical Society Publishing. (In Persian).

70. Zerakar, A., Kazemi Zamani, B., Ghorbani, S., Ashegh Moalla, M., & Hamidreza Jafari. (2013). Preparation of spatial dispersion map for forest fire hazard using multi-criteria decision making and geographic information system (Case Study: Three Forest area in Gilan province), Journal of Forest and Poplar Research, 21(2), 230-218. (In Persian).