تأثیر آستانه‌ای بدهی‌های خارجی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای گروه D8: مدل رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانلی (PSTR)

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای

مقاله 3، دوره 23، شماره 11، مرداد 1395، صفحه 89-120   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/erd.v23i11.51119

نویسندگان

محمد جعفری¹؛ ابوالقاسم گلخندان^{* 1}؛ صاحبه محمدیان منصور²؛ اعظم السادات میری²

¹دانشگاه لرستان

²لرستان

چکیده

این مقاله با استفاده از مدل رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانلی (PSTR) به‌عنوان یکی از برجسته‌ترین مدل‌های تغییر رژیمی، تأثیر آستانه‌ای بدهی‌های خارجی را بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای گروه D8 طی دورۀ زمانی 1991 تا 2013 مورد بررسی قرار داده است. به این منظور از متغیر بدهی‌های خارجی کل به‌صورت درصدی از تولید ناخالص داخلی به‌عنوان شاخص بار بدهی و متغیر انتقال استفاده شده است. نتایج آزمون خطی‌بودن، قویاً وجود رابطۀ غیرخطی بین متغیرهای مورد مطالعه را نشان می‌دهد. هچنین لحاظ‌نمودن یک تابع انتقال با یک پارامتر آستانه‌ای که بیان‌گر یک مدل دورژیمی است، برای تصریح رابطه غیرخطی بین متغیرهای مورد مطالعه کفایت می‌کند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که حد آستانه‌ای 12/34 درصد است و پارامتر شیب نیز 83/1 برآورد شده است. در رژیم اول بدهی‌های خارجی تأثیر منفی اندکی بر رشد اقتصادی دارد که پس از عبور از حد آستانه‌ای، در رژیم دوم این تأثیرگذاری منفی افزایش می‌یابد. لذا بدهی‌های خارجی نه‌تنها نقش برجسته‌ای در تسریع رشد اقتصادی کشورهای گروه D8 ایفا نمی‌کند؛ بلکه افزایش آن مانعی در جهت رشد اقتصادی این کشورهاست.

کلیدواژه‌ها

بدهی‌های خارجی؛ رشد اقتصادی؛ کشورهای گروه D8؛ مدل رگرسیون انتقال ملایم پانلی (PSTR)

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