Statistical Analysis Of Heat Waves and Maximum Temperatures of Kermanshah and Their Relation with the North Atlantic Oscillation

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

Article 4, Volume 4, Issue 1 - Serial Number 13, January 2015, Pages 59-76   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/geo.v4i1.34872

Authors

Mostafa Karampoor^{* 1}; Behrouz Nasiri¹; zouhreh Miranji²; Parsa Gholami³; Khadijeh Moradi⁴; Saeid Basati³

¹Lorstan university

²Shaid behashti university

³lorstan university

⁴Esfahan University

Abstract

Kermanshah station as station coordinates 34 degrees 21 minutes north latitude and 47 degrees9 minutes east longitude has been extreme temperature fluctuations and predict for the analysis of Kermanshah and their relationship with the NAO is considered to carry out this study, data relating to the maximum annual absolute maximum temperature.. رnowadays one of the most important discussions in the scientific circle is the discussion about climatic changes’ increase in the average temperature of the globe and its consequence that more or less has been paid attention to in our country as well. In this research the attempt was to pay attention to the survey of increase data in the maximum temperature of Kermanshah. Farin make the temperature effect on natural and human ecosystems And directly associated with the human condition and comfort climate And their role in natural processes and human activities is undeniable The temperature in the precipitation of the most important climatic factors considered in determining the distribution of roles and other elements that affect climate. Thus the annual absolute maximums of date in the specific station during a 50- year period (1961-2010) have been used. The correlation method (logarithmic’ poly nominal) and Mann- Kendall statistical test have been used for testing the meaningfulness of fluctuation direction of series temperature and its diagram has been drawn by using the MATLAB software. The results show that the temperatures of two decades of 1970 and 1980 have been lower and three decades of 1990 and 2000 have been higher than the long- term average and the decade of 1980 has been the coldest of the decades. The general result of this research shows that there are seasonal fluctuations in maximum temperature of Kermanshah which are not meaningful. The model of halt winter has been recognized as the best model for predicating the temperature of maximum extreme of Kermanshah which the diagram in a Minitab was drawn and the results of this predication shows that there is an abnormal increase in the temperature of 2014 and 2019. the temperature of the elements which are directly related to climatic conditions and welfare of human life and its role in human activities and natural processes is undeniable . The precipitation temperature is considered the most important elements in determining the role of climate and climate affect the distribution of other elements (Alijani and Ghavidel Rahimi, 1384). The sharp changes in temperature adversely impacts to biological lifeforms. Among the adverse effects of temperature changes is (hot and cold wave) loss of organisms in the ecological conditions of low and high temperature range . Similarly the effects of this phenomenon on the climate construction of facilities and buildings is very high and the occurrence of such phenomena losses will be very large. Increase in energy consumption during the occurrence of this phenomenon is including their adverse effects. Nowadays, climate change science and its application to a large extent, is considerable importance And understand the causes and nature of these changes, the most important objectives is data collection weather and climate monitoring and climate phenomena (khorshiddost and colleague, 1388 and 1389). Increase in average global temperature profile and changes of climate change is The whole idea to consider climate change.the situation of Kermanshah is 34 degrees 21 minutes north latitude and 47 degrees 9 minutes east longitude minutes. The results show that the distribution of the probability of recurrence given extreme maximum temperature wasnot normal in the Kermanshah Instead of the normal logs will follow . In fact, the show is log normal Linear methods have limitations due to non linear part (Plynvmyal) can be used Due to the extreme temperatures of maximum long-term average and the results were compared with the temperature during the 5 1960, 1990 and 2000, higher And the 1970 and 1980 to be below average are 50 years . In this regard, the coldest 1980s and 2000s warmest decade of Kermanshah . Comparison of long-term period of 2010 - 1961 and 2010 - 1990 show The increase in 0/42 ° C maximum temperature during the last 21 years. None of the studied extreme temperature changes in the peak intensity changes of Kermanshah not linear and parabolic regression will follow decade long trend in the 1980s and 1990s when the trend is much stronger than the other . The general trend of the maximum temperature change is gradual upward climb However, the extreme maximum temperature Kermanshah gradual changes when using the six degrees Plynvmyal shown In mid-2000 Series (2005) show a sharp decline . Extreme maximum temperatures in the normal range located in Kermanshah more years Only in 1964, 1969, 1973, 1981, 1994 and 1997 is strongly positive anomalies in the range Using the Mann - Kendall found The maximum extreme temperature changes when Kermanshah despite showing no significant trend of increasing The maximum extreme temperature changes, although the changes in long-term averages will show . But the extreme maximum temperature changes in the Kermanshah is no mean Meanwhile, the 21-year Kermanshah station from 1990 to 2010 despite a linear increase of about 3%, no significant changes during the 21 years. The results of the model Holt - Winters it was obtained during 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2019 is higher than the upper threshold,. Years 2013, 2015, 2016, , 2017 and 2020 the normal threshold and only2018 was lower than normal threshold The years 2014 and 2019, with temperatures 3/44 ° C warmest years Between the actual temperature and the pre projected to be Kermanshah. Measures the accuracy of the model prediction Holt - Winters and the normal distribution and histogram frequency data showed and The validity of the method was applied to predict the acceptable level And quantities been projected with the distance High reliability Printable the occurrence Using Pearson correlation coefficients associated with the NAO index and the heat wave was determined. The highest correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the cold seasons and temperatures ranged from one month to find a negative, While the correlation coefficient for the three-month lag in the warm seasons and the relationship is positive

Keywords

Maximum temperature; North Atlantic Oscillation; Heat waves; Halt-Winters; Kermanshah

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