سناریوهای همه‌پرسی استقلال کردستان عراق

پژوهش نامه ایرانی سیاست بین الملل

مقاله 5، دوره 7، شماره 2، دی 1398، صفحه 133-166   

نوع مقاله: مقالات

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jipr.v7i2.70070

نویسندگان

علیرضا سمیعی اصفهانی^{* 1}؛ سارا فرحمند²

¹یاسوج

²پیام نور قزوین

چکیده

     «پیشمرگه­های کرد» پس از تهاجم داعش، به طور غیررسمی کنترل برخی از مناطق شمالی رها شده توسط نیروهای نظامی عراق را در دست گرفتند و درنتیجه خواسته­ها برای استقلال کردستان قوت گرفت. این رویداد، پیامدهای داخلی و منطقه­ای مهمی را می­تواند برای اقلیم کردستان عراق درپی داشته باشد. از این­رو، هدف نوشتار پیش­رو بر پایۀ روش آینده­پژوهی و تکنیک سناریوپردازی، پاسخ به این پرسش اصلی است که با توجه به رویدادهای کنونی و پیش بینی روند آینده آن­ها، چه سناریوهایی پیش­روی حکومت اقلیم کردستان قرار دارد؟ بر این پایه، پنج سناریو در سه دسته­بندی را می­توان مطرح نمود: الف) سناریوی مطلوب: 1) انجام مذاکرات اقلیم کردستان با دولت مرکزی عراق، ایران، ترکیه، آمریکا و متحدان غربی آن و اعلام استقلال کردستان؛ 2) استقلال اقلیم کردستان و بهره­گیری از توان­مندی­های اقتصادی اربیل برای تاثیرگذاری بر کنش­ها و واکنش­های سیاسی آینده؛ ب) سناریوی محتمل: 1) میانجی­گری بازیگر ثالث و کسب امتیاز اقتصادی و سیاسی در اداره مناطق مورد مناقشه و ایجاد سیستم کنفدرال در ازای تعویق یا کنار گذاشتن استقلال کردستان؛ 2) علام فوری استقلال کردستان عراق پس از شکست مذاکرات احتمالی با حکومت مرکزی عراق و دولت­های منطقه­ای و فرامنطقه­ای؛ ج) سناریوی ممکن: ایجاد کردستان بزرگ. یافته­های پژوهش حاضر نشان می­دهد که پیامدهای حاصل از برگزاری رفراندوم 25 سپتامبر 2017، اقلیم کردستان را دچار مشکلات عدیده کرده است؛ بنابراین چنانچه حکومت اقلیم کردستان نتواند بر این بحران غلبه کند بسیاری از دستاوردهای فعلی در حوزه اقتصادی، آزادی سیاسی، اجتماعی، فرهنگی را از دست خواهد داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عراق؛ اقلیم کردستان عراق؛ کردها؛ رفراندوم استقلال خواهی؛ دولت مستقل

مراجع

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