مطالعه نقش توسعۀ مالی بر نحوۀ اثرگذاری رانت منابع طبیعی بر اَشکال مختلف سرمایه در ایران

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 2، دوره 24، شماره 13، فروردین 1396، صفحه 30-68   

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/pm.v24i14.61521

نویسندگان

فرزانه احمدیان یزدی^{* 1}؛ مسعود همایونی فر²؛ محمدحسین مهدوی عادلی²؛ محمدعلی فلاحی²؛ سید محمد حسینی³

¹دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

²فردوسی مشهد

³سازمان تبلیغات اسلامی مشهد

چکیده

توسعه مالی از موضوعات بسیار مهم در ارتباط با رشد و توسعه کشورهای غنی از منابع است. چنانچه این کشورها با بهره‌گیری از کارکردهای اصلی توسعه بخش مالی، موجب هدایت رانت منابع به سرمایه-گذاری‌های مولد و در نهایت تبدیل آنها به سایر اشکال سرمایه شوند، می‌توانند رشد و توسعه پایدار در اقتصاد کشورشان ایجاد کنند. از آنجا که رانت منابع طبیعی دارای اثرگذاری متفاوتی بر انباشت اشکال مختلف سرمایه است، ارائه راه‌کاری در جهت بهبود نحوه این اثرگذاری می‌تواند برای کشورهای دارنده این منابع مفید باشد. در این مطالعه، نقش توسعه مالی به عنوان یک زیرساختار مؤثر بر نحوه اثرگذاری رانت منابع بر انباشت سرمایه‌های خارجی، فیزیکی، انسانی و اجتماعی در قالب یک سیستم معادلات همزمان و با بهره‌گیری از تکنیک رگرسیون غلتان طی دوره 1970-2014 برای کشور ایران مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. برآوردکننده SUR در سیستم معادلات همزمان نشان می‌دهد که رانت منابع طبیعی دارای اثرگذاری منفی بر سرمایه فیزیکی و اثرگذاری مثبت بر سرمایه‌های خارجی و اجتماعی است. نحوه اثرگذاری رانت منابع بر انباشت سرمایه انسانی مختلف است؛ به طوری‌که در برخی دوره‌ها مثبت و برخی دوره‌ها منفی است. نتایج حاصل از رگرسیون غلتان برای هر کدام از معادلات نشان می‌دهد که توسعه مالی موجب کاهش اثرگذاری منفی رانت منابع بر سرمایه فیزیکی و افزایش اثرگذاری مثبت آن بر سرمایه اجتماعی است؛ اما در مورد انباشت سرمایه خارجی و انسانی، توسعه مالی نتوانسته در راستای بهبود اثرگذاری رانت منابع بر انباشت این دو شکل سرمایه در ایران عمل کند. در مجموع بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده از این مطالعه می‌توان گفت که توسعه مالی بخش بانکی در ایران می‌تواند به عنوان راه‌کاری در جهت بهره‌گیری از مواهب حاصل از رانت منابع طبیعی در اقتصاد کشور مورد توجه ویژه سیاست‌گذاران و محققان قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

رانت منابع طبیعی؛ توسعه مالی؛ سیستم معادلات همزمان؛ رگرسیون غلتان

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