تغییرات امنیت غذایی ناشی از سیاست حذف یارانه انرژی در بازار گوشت ایران

مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 1، دوره 30، شماره 1، فروردین 1395، صفحه 1-9   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.v30i1.42324

نویسندگان

فاطمه فتحی^* ؛ محمد بخشوده

دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

اجرای فاز دوم هدفمندی یارانه ی انرژی، بخش دام و طیور را که سهم زیادی از مصرف انرژی در بخش کشاورزی ایران را به خود اختصاص داده است تحت تأثیر قرار خواهد داد. در این مطالعه به بررسی اثرات سیاست افزایش تدریجی قیمت حامل های انرژی، بر امنیت غذایی خانوارها پرداخته شد. سناریوهای مختلف افزایش قیمت حامل های انرژی در بازارهای عمودی و افقی گوشت با استفاده از مدل چندبازاری جابجایی تعادل (EDM) شبیه سازی شد. نتایج نشان داد که تغییر قیمت گوشت مرغ و سپس گوشت گاو و گوساله ناشی از واقعی شدن قیمت انرژی به ترتیب بیشترین اثر را در دریافت پروتئین حیوانی خانوارها بخود اختصاص خواهند داد. با پرداخت نقدی و افزایش تقاضای مصرف کنندگان، سهم گوشت قرمز در کاهش عناصر دریافتی خانوارها بیشتر شد اما پرداخت نقدی کاهش کالری و پروئتین حیوانی دریافتی خانوارها، را جبران نخواهد نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

امنیت غذایی؛ بازار گوشت؛ قیمت انرژی؛ مدل جابجایی تعادل

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