کاربرد لاجیت ترتیبی تعمیم یافته در تعیین عوامل اجتماعی- اقتصادی مؤثر بر آلودگی آب‌های زیرزمینی (مطالعه موردی: آبشویی نیترات در کشت برنج)

مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 2، دوره 32، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 39، فروردین 1397، صفحه 17-29   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.v32i1.63261

نویسندگان

حمید امیرنژاد^* ؛ احمدرضا شاهپوری؛ مهسا تسلیمی

دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

چکیده

استفاده غیربهینه و بیش از حد کودهای حاوی نیترات باعث آلودگی آب‌های سطحی و زیرسطحی شده و در چرخه حیاتی انسانی و زیست محیطی اثر منفی دارد. هدف این مطالعه، بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر ورود نیترات به آب‌های زیرزمینی در کشت برنج در شهرستان ساری است. بدین جهت از 106 کشاورز شالیکار شهرستان ساری در سال 1394 مصاحبه به عمل آمد و بعد از جمع‌آوری و استخراج اطلاعات، از روش لاجیت ترتیبی تعمیم یافته با احتمالات متناسب جزئی برای بررسی عوامل موثر بر ورود نیترات به آب‌های زیرزمینی استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که متغیرهای سطح درآمد، استفاده از کود حیوانی، نوع مالکیت زمین، سطح زیر کشت برنج، پرداخت آب‌بها و آشنایی با کشت ارگانیک بر سطوح سه‌گانه متغیر وابسته (میزان ورود نیترات به آب زیرزمینی) از نظر آماری اثرات معنی‌دار متفاوتی دارند. در پایان پیشنهادات کاربردی نظیر تغییر در نظام قیمت‌گذاری آب و کود، ترویج و تبلیغ استفاده از کودهای ارگانیک و کشت ارگانیک برنج پیشنهاد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

آلودگی آب؛ احتمالات متناسب جزئی؛ روش لاجیت ترتیبی تعمیم یافته؛ کود شیمیایی؛ مازندران؛ منابع آب

مراجع

1- Bakhshi A., Shahnazari H., and Tahmasebi R. 2013. Simulated nitrate transport paddy rice fields of Mazandaran in canola growing season for water resources management. Journal of Water and Irrigation Management (Journal of Agriculture), 3(2): 29-42. (In Persian).

2- Antweiler W., Copeland R. B., and Taylor M. S. 2001. Is Free Trade Good for the Environment? The American Economic Review; 4(2): 877- 908.

3- Asteriou D. 2007. Applied econometrics: a modern approach using Eviews and Microfit Rev.ed. 2007: 236-442.

4- Azmoodeh M. 2013. History of economic thought. Nashre Nei. (In Persian)

5- Babiker I.S., Mohamed M.A.A., Hayama T., and Kato K. 2005. A GIS-based DRASTIC: model for assessing aquifer vulnerability in Kakamigahara heights, Gifu Prefecture, central Japan. Journal of Science of the Total Environment, 345(1-3): 127-40.

6- Baltagi H. 2002. Econometrics Analysis of Data, second Edition، John Wileys Sons، Ltd: 216-288.

7- Beghin J., Dessus S., et al. 1997. The trade and environment nexus in Mexican agriculture. A general equilibrium analysis. Agricultural Economics, 17(2–3): 115-131.31

8- Dehkordi A., Afioni M., and Mosavi S. F. 2005. Assessment of changes in nitrate concentrations in groundwater in in zayandehrood, Isfahan province, Journal of Ecology, 39: 33-40. (In Persian)

9- Di H. J., and Cameron K. C. 2002. Nitrate leaching and pasture production from different nitrogen sources on a shallow stony soil under flood-irrigated dairy pasture. Australian Journal of Soil Research, 40(2): 317-334.

10- Dinardo N. John. 1997. Econometric methods, 4th Ed, c1997, 124-136.

11- Fazeli M., Kalantari F., Rahimi M.H., and Khubyari A. 2011. Investigating the temporal and spatial distribution of nitrate pollution of groundwater Zydun plains. Water Engineering Journal, 4(8):45-51. (In Persian)

12- Fewtrell L. 2004. Drinking-water nitrate, methemoglobinemia, and global burden of disease. A discussion. Environmental Health Perspective, 112 (14): 1371-1374.

13- Fronsec P. 2001. Quantitative models in marketing research, the dependent variable is the two-choice: 97-116.

14- Gibson RS., Vanderkooy PC., Mclennanc CE., et al. 1987. Contribution of tap water to mineral intakes of Canadian preschool children. Arch Environ Health, 42(3): 165-172.

15- Goolsby D. A. 2000. Mississippi Basin nitrogen flux believed to cause Gulf hypoxia. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 81(29):321-327.

16- Grazhdani D. 2015. Contingent Valuation of Residents’ Attitudes and Willingness to- Pay for Non-Point Source Pollution Control: A Case Study in AL-Prespa, Southeastern Albania, Environmental Management 56:81–93.

17- Green W.H. 1993. Econometric Analysis, second Edition, Macmillan.

18- Grossman G.M., and Krueger A.B. 1995. Economic growth and the environment Quarterly, Journal of Economics, May, 353– 358.

19- Gujarati D.N. 2005. Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hill.

20- Hsiao C. 1986. Autoregressive Modeling and Money-Income Causality Detection. Journal of Monetary Economics, pp. 85-106.

21- Jalali Koutenaei N., Naseri A., and Salahshour J. 2008. Water requirement and crop coefficient of rice (case study: Tarom cultivar) by lysimetric type N-Type in Mazandaran province Mahmoud Abad city. 2nd National Conference on Irrigation and Drainage Network Management, Ahwaz, Chamran University. (In Persian)

22- Josuma G., et al. 1987. Groundwater contamination: Use of models in decision- making, kluwer Academic Publisher, 178p.

23- Kamiab Talysh F., Razavipour Komala D., and Rezaei M. 2011. Evaluation of nitrate leaching losses during rice growing season. 12th Congress of Soil Sciences, Tabriz, Iran 12- 14 September 2011. (In Persian)

24- Khazaei S.H., Khorasani N., Talebi Jahromi KH., and Ehteshami M. 2010. Investigation of the groundwater contamination due to the use of Diazinon insecticide in Mazandaran province (case study: Mahmoud Abad City). Journal of Natural Environmental, Iranian Journal of Natural Resources, 63(1): 23-32. (In Persian with English abstract)

25- Knobeloch L., et al. 2000. Et al Blue babies and nitrate contaminated well water. Environmental Health Perspective, 108 (7): 675-678.

26- Krapac I. G., et al. 2002. Impacts of swine manure pits on groundwater quality. Environ Pollute, 120 (2): 475-92.

27- Lee C.-C., Chiu Y.B., et al. 2010. The environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for water pollution: Do regions matter? Energy Policy, 38(1): 12-23.

28- Liao S.H. 1994. Knowledge Management Technologies and Applications- Literature Review from 1985 to 1994. Expert Systems and Applications, 25 (2): 155-164.

29- Madala G. S. 1998. Unit roots, Cointegration and Structural change, Econometica, 47, 261-266.

30- Managi S., A Hibiki A., et al. 2009. "Does trade openness improve environmental quality?" Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 58(3): 346-363.

31- Matyas L. 1992. Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model", The Model for assessing aquifer vulnerability in Kakamigahara heights, Kifu Prefecture.

32- Mazandaran Regional Water Organization. Department of Water Resources basic studies. The statistical report. 2014. Ministry of Energy. (In Persian)

33- Ministry of Agriculture. 2015. Statistical Yearbook. (in Persian)

34- Mohammadi H., Moarefi Mohammad A., and Nojavan Solmaz. 2017. Factors Affecting Farmer’s Chemical Fertilizers Consumption and Water Pollution in Northeastern Iran. Journal of Agricultural Science. 9 (2): 234-241.

35- Moradzadeh M., Moazed E., and Sayyad G. A. 2013. Simulate nitrate leaching in a sandy loam soil treated with zeolite using software Hydrus-1D. Knowledge of soil and water, 23(1):95-108. (In Persian)

36- Nolen BT. 2001. Relating Nitrogen Sources and Aquifer Susceptibility to Nitrate in Shallow Ground Water of the United States. Ground Water, 39(2): 35-48.

37- O’Donoghue C., Buckley C., Chyzheuskaya A., Grealis E., Green S., Howley P., Hynes S., and Upton V. 2015. The Spatial Impact of Economic Change on RiverWater Quality 1991- 2010, European Association of Agricultural Economists, 150th Seminar, October 22-23, 2015, Edinburgh, Scotland.

38- Ouedraogo I., and Vanclooster M. 2016. A meta-analysis and statistical modelling of nitrates in groundwater at the African scale, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 2353–2381.

39- Phelps E. S. 1961. The Golden Rule of Accumulation: A Fable for Growthmen, American Economic Review, Vol1: 638-643.

40- Rodriguez-Galiano V., Paula Mendes M., Jose Garcia-Soldado M., Chica-Olmo M., and Ribeiro L. 2014. Predictive modeling of groundwater nitrate pollution using Random Forest and multisource variables related to intrinsic and specific vulnerability: A case study in an agricultural setting (Southern Spain), Science of the Total Environment, 476–477, 189–206.

41- Sedaghat M. Earth and Water Resourcees (Groundwater). Tehran: Payame Noor university publication; 2008. (In Persian)

42- Shahnoushi N., Firouz Zareh A., Zhaleh Rajabi M., Dourandish A., and Shahidi Yasaghi S.A. 2012. Bread waste products (causes and consequences). Ferdowsi University of Mashhad. Mashhad. (In Persian)

43- Shariat Panahi M. 1998. Quality principles of water and wastewater treatment. Tehran University. Tehran. (In Persian)

44- Sheikh Zeineddin A., Esmaeili A., and Zibaei M. 2016. Policy incentives to reduce nitrate leaching in farmlands: Case study irrigation and drainage network Doroudzan. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 30(2): 127-135. (In Persian)

45- Singh M. P. 1985. Import Policy for a Developing Economy. Allahabad, India: Chugh Publications.

46- Suri A. Econometrics (Advanced) along with the use of Eviews 8 and Stata 12. The Ethnography. (In Persian)

47- Williams R. 2006. Generalized ordered logit / partial proportional odds models for ordinal dependent.

48- Williams R. 2010. Generalized ordered logit models. Midwest sociological meetings, Chicago.

49- Wooldridge Jeffrey M. 2005. Introductory econometrics, 3rd, c2005 World Economy, 20, No.3, Blackwell Publishers. Oxford.

50- Zare Abyaneh H., Nouri H., Liaghat A., Karim V., and Nouri H. 2011. Calibration of nitrate leaching and water table fluctuation in paddy rice fields using DRAINMOD-N software. Journal of Soil and Water Sciences, 15 (57): 49-60. (In Persian).