آثار افزایش قیمت کالاهای خوراکی بر رفاه و فقر خانوارهای شهری ایران

مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 1، دوره 32، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 42، دی 1397، صفحه 287-298   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.v32i4.69715

نویسندگان

نیلوفر اشک تراب¹؛ زهرا نعمت الهی²

¹دانشگاه شیراز

²دانشگاه کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری

چکیده

هدف اصلی این پژوهش بررسی تأثیر افزایش قیمت کالاهای خوراکی بر رفاه خانوارهای شهری است. به‌منظور بررسی رفتار مصرف‌کنندگان و برآورد کشش­های قیمتی کالاهای مورد مطالعه از رهیافت دیتون استفاده شده است. براساس این رهیافت واکنش مصرف‌کنندگان نسبت به افزایش قیمت کالاهای خوراکی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. بدین منظور از اطلاعات مربوط به هزینه و درآمد خانوارهای شهری مرکز آمار ایران در سال 1393 استفاده شده است. داده‌های این بررسی نیز شامل مخارج و مقادیر مصرف کالاهای خوراکی و همچنین ویژگی­های جمعیتی اندازه خانوار و میزان تحصیلات سرپرست خانوار است. پس از تخمین تابع تقاضای کالاهای خوراکی خانوار با استفاده از سیستم تقاضای تقریبا ایده­آل درجه دوم (QAIDS)، کشش قیمتی و درآمدی محاسبه شده است. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده، در نتیجه­ی اعمال سه سناریوی افزایش قیمت، با 15 درصد افزایش قیمت‌ها، 144 خانوار (98/1 درصد) به خانواده های فقیر و زیر خط فقر اضافه شده­اند. با افزایش 25 درصدی قیمت­ها، 253 خانوار (5/3 درصد) و با افزایش 50 درصدی قیمت­ها 503 خانوار (93/6 درصد) به زیر خط فقر منتقل شدند. بنابراین با توجه به اینکه خوراکی­ها، سهم بالایی از سبد مصرفی خانوارهای شهری را به خود اختصاص داده است، می‌بایستی جهت حفظ سطح رفاه خانوارها، حمایت‌های مالی لازم انجام شده و معادل تغییرات جبرانی محاسبه شده جهت حفظ مطلوبیت خانوارها، پرداخت گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

افزایش قیمت؛ کالاهای اساسی؛ فقر؛ تابع تقاضای QAIDS

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