Effects of climate change on the length of growth stages and water requirement of wheat and barley (Case Study: Birjand Plain)

بوم شناسی کشاورزی

Article 2, Volume 7, Issue 4 - Serial Number 26, December 2015, Pages 443-460   

Document Type: Scientific - Research

DOI: 10.22067/jag.v7i4.26666

Authors

Mitra Rahmani¹; Majid Jami Al-Ahmadi^{* 1}; Ali Shahidi²; Mostafa Hadizadeh Azghandi³

¹Department of Agronomy and Plant Breeding, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran

²Department of Water Engineering, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran

³Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Birjand, Iran

Abstract

Introduction
The global climate is changing and, despite efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, weather variation is inevitable. Meanwhile, agriculture as a major water consumer will require adaptation to these variations, along with other challenges, to guarantee its persistence and sustainability. Given the arid and semi-arid climate of Iran, water, as a main limiting factor for agricultural production, plays an important role in determining the type of farming activities (Osamu et al., 2005). Crop water requirements and evapotranspiration are the main cause of water consumption in agricultural sector, the both accepted to face a dramatic increase in future under influence of increasing temperatures resulting from climate change (Koocheki et al., 2001). In this regard, the foreknowledge about future changes in climate and its effects on agricultural water use can be helpful for farmers and decision-makers. This study aimed to evaluate the climatic conditions of Birjand plain in the next two decades, and to investigate the effects of climate change on water consumption of wheat and barley as two main crops in this region.

Materials and methods
In the present survey, the effects of estimated climate change in Birjand plain on water requirement of wheat and barley and wheat yield in the 2010-2039 period were studied. Based on average weather data for the last thirty years from Birjand synoptic stations, climatic parameters of temperature and precipitation for the time period of 2010-2039 were simulated with LARS-WG5 using A1 scenario confirmed by the IPCC. Wind speed and relative humidity also were estimated for the future period. Common planting and harvesting dates were obtained from local farmers and Birjand Agriculture Organization and duration and crop coefficients (Kc) for early, developmental, middle and final crop growth stages in the current period were extracted from FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56. For the future period, these dates and growth stages duration were estimated by matching the average daily temperature at the current time with the time of their occurrence in the future. The reference and crop evapotranspiration were calculated based on Penman-Monteith equations and effective rainfall was determined with USDA method. Crop water requirement was also calculated using the CropWat software and effects of climate change on crop yield was evaluated using DSSAT model. The genetic factors were taken from the study of Mansouri (2012) in Birjand. Other required input data (edaphic and crop data) obtained from Agricultural Organization and local farmers.

Results and discussion
The results showed that the minimum and maximum temperatures of the future years will increase, and there would be an approximately 3.5 percent more annual rainfall in the future decades. The largest temperature increase will occur in cold months, with a maximum rise in temperature of 2 °C in February. Overall, the average maximum temperature for 2010-2039 would be up to 0.6 °C higher than current period in Birjand. These higher temperature will result a significant decrease in the length of crop growth period, so that the time of planting to maturity will be reduced from 240 and 219 days (in current terms) to 227 and 193 days (in the future) for wheat and barley, respectively. Koocheki et al. (2001) has estimated 26 days shorter growing season for wheat in Mashhad due to higher temperatures in future. Despite higher reference evapotranspiration, crop water requirement will drop in the future between 19.5 percent (wheat) to 22.5 percent (barley), due to earlier planting of these crops and their shorter growing period. Indeed, due to the shorter duration of crop growth under climate change condition, the wheat yield will be reduced by about 30 percent. It was also previously estimated that despite an increase in carbon dioxide, wheat yield will be lower between 13 and 28 percent towards year 2050, which depends to location and employed general circulation models. Obviously, the agricultural practices and management should improve to comply with the inevitable climate changes. Increasing tolerance of wheat cultivars grown in this area to higher temperatures, especially during flowering time, can be effective in order to adapt to climate change.

Conclusion
Climate change is one of the main challenges facing the agricultural sector, especially in arid and semi-arid regions, and simulation of its effects in the future, can be useful for the planning and policy making to ensure food security for the community and welfare for the producers. The models which used in this study have already been successfully used in different studies.Our results showed that the use of these models to predict climate change and its effects on crops water requirements in Birjand plain will be possible with a good accuracy.

Keywords: Crop coefficient, Evapotranspiration, General atmosphere circulation model, LARS-WG

References
Koocheki, A., Nassiri Mahallati, M., Sharifi, H.R., Zand, E., and Kamali, G. 2001. A simulation study for growth, phenology and yield of wheat cultivars under the doubled CO2 concentration in Mashhad conditions. Desert 6(2): 117-127. (In Persian with English Summary)
Mansouri, E. 2012. Predict of wheat cultivars yield impact of climate change in Southern Khorasan province by using DSSAT model. MSc Thesis in Water Resources Engineering. Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand. (In Persian with English Summary)
Osamu, T., Yoshida, K., Hiroaki, S., Katsuhiro, H., and Hajime Tangi, H. 2005. Estimation of irrigation water using Cropwat model at KM35 Project Site, in Savannakhet, LAO, PDR. Proceedings of the International Symposium on Role of Water Sciences in Transbounday River Basin Management. 10-12 March. Ratchathani, Thailand.

Keywords

Crop coefficient; Evapotranspiration; General Atmosphere Circulation Model; LARS-WG

References

1- Abbasi, F., Malbusi, S., Babaeian, I., Asmari, M., and Borhani, R. 2010. Climate change prediction of south Khorasan province during 2010-2039 by using statistical downscaling of ECHO-G data. Journal of Water and Soil 24(2): 218-233. (In Persian with English Summary)

2- Adinalp, C., and Cresser, M. 2008. The effect of global climate change on agriculture. American- Eurasian Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Science 3(5): 672-676.

3- Alizadeh, A. 2011. Soil, Water and Plant Relationship. 12th Ed. Emam Reza University Press, Mashad, Iran 356 pp. (In Persian)

4- Alizadeh, A., Dehghani-Sanij, H., and Moosavi, M. 2010. The effect of using on farm real time climatic data for calculating irrigation requirement on water use effeciency of corn. Iranian Journal of lrrigation and drainage 4(2): 308-318.

5- Alizadeh, A., Sayari, N., Hesami Kermani, M.R., Bannayan Aval, M., and Farid Hossaini, A. 2010. Assessment of climate change potential impacts on agricultural water use and water resources of Kashaf rood basin. Journal of Water and Soil 24(4): 815-835. (In Persian with English Summary)

6- Allen, R.G., Pereira, L.S., Raes, D., and Smith, M. 1998. Crop evapotranspiration guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper. NO. 56, Rome, Italy.

7- Ashraf, B., Mousavi-Baygi, M., Kamali, G.A., and Davari, K. 2012. Evaluation of wheat and Sugar beet water use variation due to climate change effects in two coming decades in the selected plains of Khorasan Razavi province. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage 6(2): 105-117. (In Persian with English Summary)

8- Babaeian, I., Najafi nik, Z., and Zakizadeh, A. 2005. The preliminary study and evaluation of the weather generator models. A Case Study: The evaluation of LARS-WG model on selected stations Khorasan. Climatology Center. Project Report. (In Persian)

9- Baguis, P., Roulin, E., Willems, P., and Ntegeka, V. 2010. Climate change scenarios for precipitation and crop evapotranspiration over central Belgium. Theoretical Applied Climatology 99: 273-286.

10- Banivahab, A.R., and Alijani, A. 2005. Studying droughts and forecasting precipitation and temperature in Birjand area. Geographical Research Quarterly 37(52): 13-31 (In Persian with English Summary)

11- Bradley, N.L., Leopold, A.C., Ross, J., and Wellington, H. 1999. Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 96: 9701-9704.

12- Craufurd, P.Q., and Wheeler, T.R. 2009. Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops. Journal of Experimental Botany 60(9): 2529-2539.

13- Emam, Y. 2007. Cereal Production. The third Ed. Shiraz University Press, Shiraz, Iran 192 pp. (In Persian)

14- Farajzadeh, M., and Feyzi, V. 2012. Climate change assessment of Tabriz weather station at 2010-2100 period using downscale data LARS-WG model. Territory (Sarzamin) 9(1): 65-78. (In Persian with English Summary)

15- Fitter, A.H., and Fitter, R.S.R. 2002. Rapid change in flowering time in British plants. Science 296: 1689-1691.

16- Fulu, T., Masayuki, Y., Yinlong, X., Yousay, H., and Zhao, H. 2006. Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China. Agricultural and Forrest Meteorology 138: 82-92.

17- Frich, P., Alexavder, L.V., Della-Marta, P., Gleason, B., Heylock, M., Klein Tank, A.M.G., and Peterson, T. 2002. Observed coherent change in climatic extremes during the second half of the 20 century. Climate research 19: 193-212.

18- Hussain, S.S., and Mudasser, M. 2007. Prospects for weat production under changing climate in mountain areas of Pakistan-An econometric analysis. Agricultur Analysis 94: 494-501.

19- IPCC. 1995. Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific Technical Analyses. Cambridge University Press 878 pp.

20- Kamali, G. 1989. Bioclimatic studies of saffron in Southern Khorasan. Iranian Research Organization for Science and Technology. Research Report. (In Persian)

21- Kardavani, P. 2007. Drought and Ways of Dealing with it (Water in Agriculture, Industry and Urban). Tehran Univercity Publications 392 pp. (In Persian)

22- Koocheki, A., and Nassiri Mahallati, M. 2009. Impacts of climate change and CO2 concentration on wheat yield in Iran and adaptation strategies. Journal of Iranian Field Crop Research 6(1): 139-154. (In Persian with English Summary)

23- Koocheki, A., Nassiri Mahallati, M., Sharifi, H.R., Zand, E., and Kamali, G. 2001. A simulation study for growth, phenology and yield of wheat cultivars under the doubled CO2 concentration in Mashhad conditions. Desert 6(2): 117-127. (In Persian with English Summary)

24- Koocheki, A., Nassiri, M., Sharifi, H.R., Soltani, A., Kamali, G.A., and Rezvani Moghaddam, P. 2003. Simulation of changes in climatic parameters of Iran under doubled CO‌2 concentration using general circulation models. Desert 8 (2): 178-191 (In Persian with English Summary)

25- Lal, M., Singh, K.K., Rathore, L., Srinivasan, G., and Saseendran, S.A. 1998. Vulnerability of rice and wheat yields in NW India to future changes in climate. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 89: 101-114.

26- Malekinejhad, H., and Poormohammadi, S. 2008. Determination of main important climatic factors on evaporation of arid zones using rotated factor analysis procedure. Water resource. Conference. Tabriz, Iran p. 215.

27- Mansouri, E. 2012. Predict of wheat cultivars yield impact of climate change in Southern Khorasan province by using DSSAT model. MSc thesis in water resources engineering. Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand. (In Persian with English Summary)

28- Mohajerani, H., Mosaedi, A., Kholghi, M., Maftah Halghi, M., and Saad Aldin, A. 2011. Estimating crop water requirement of wheat by Cropwat model in Kordkouy-Golestan province. National Conference on Water Scarcity and Drought Management in Agronomy. 23-24 Feb. Islamic Azad University of Arsanjan, Iran.

29- Nassiri Mahallati, M., and Koocheki, A. 2005. Effects of climate change on agroclimatic indices in rainfed wheat production areas of Iran. Journal of Iranian Field Crop Research 3(2): 291-303. (In Persian with English Summary)

30- Nassiri Mahallati, M., and Koocheki, A. 2006. Analysis of agroclimatic indices of Iran under future climate change scenarios. Journal of Iranian Field Crop Research 4(1): 169-182. (In Persian with English Summary)

31- Niazi, J., Fooladmand, H.R., Ahmadi, S.H., and Vaziri, J. 2005. Water requirement and crop coefficient of wheat in Zarghan area, Fars province. Journal of Water and Soil Science Isfahan University of Technology 9(1): 1-8. (In Persian with English Summary)

32- Nikbakht, J., Mohammadi, K., and Ehteshami, M. 2007. Estimation of crop evapotranspiration in different probability levels: Case study in Maragheh, East AzarBaijan. Journal of Agricultural Sciences (Islamic Azad University) 13(1): 95-106. (In Persian with English Summary)

33- Osamu, T., Yoshida, K., Hiroaki, S., Katsuhiro, H., and Hajime Tangi, H. 2005. Estimation of irrigation water using cropwat model at KM35 project site, in Savannakhet, LAO, PDR. Proceedings of the International Symposium on Role of Water Sciences in Transbounday River Basin Management. 10-12 March. Ratchathani, Thailand.

34- Rahimzadeh, F., and Asgari, A. 2005. A look at difference of increase rates of minimum with maximum temperature and at decrease rates of Diurnal temperature range (DTR) in Iran. Iranian Quarterly Geographical Research Journal 73: 153-171. (In Persian)

35- Semenov, M.A., and Barrow, E.M. 2002. LARS-WG: A Stochastic Weather Generator for Use in Climate Impact Studies. User’s manual, Version 3.0. Rothamsted Research Station 28 pp.

36- South Khorasan government. 2007. The geographical and natural situation of Birjand County. Available at Web site http://www.sk-portal.ir/index.php?id=164&option=com_content&task=view (verified 3 September 2013).

37- Tomar, V.S., and Otoole, J.C. 1980. Water use in lowland rice cultivation in Asia. A review of evapotranspiration. Agricultural Water Management 3: 83-106.