شناخت عامل‌های مؤثر بر مخاطرات طبیعی تولیدکنندگان زرشک و عناب در خراسان جنوبی با رهیافت GFA

مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 3، دوره 33، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 46، دی 1398، صفحه 351-361   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.v33i4.79473

نویسندگان

محمد حسین کریم^{* 1}؛ امیر دادرس مقدم²؛ سید مهدی حسینی³؛ سید محسن سیدان⁴

¹دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران

²دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

³اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران

⁴بخش تحقیقات اقتصادی، اجتماعی و ترویج کشاورزی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان همدان، ایران

چکیده

عمده اقتصاد در نواحی روستایی استان خراسان جنوبی بر کاشت و فروش سه محصول مقاوم به کم‌آبی و خشکی و در عین حال با ارزش اقتصادی بالا یعنی زرشک، زعفران و عناب استوار می‌باشد. در حدود ۹۸ و 96 درصد تولید زرشک و عناب کشور در این استان انجام می‌گیرد و مخاطرات طبیعی بی‌شماری این محصولات استراتژیک را تهدید می‌کند. این پژوهش به بررسی عوامل تأثیرگذار بر مدیریت ریسک تولید این دو محصول در استان خراسان جنوبی می‌پردازد. جامعه آماری تحقیق حاضر شامل کشاورزان استان خراسان جنوبی می‌باشند. برای جمع آوری داده‌ها از ابزار پرسشنامه استفاده شده است. داده‌ها و اطلاعات با روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی از 145 و 130 تولیدکننده زرشک و عناب در سال 1397 جمع­آوری شده است. روایی پرسشنامه با استفاده از نظرات اساتید و کارشناسان مورد تائید قرار گرفت و پایایی آن نیز از طریق آزمون آلفای کرونباخ محاسبه گردید که مقدار آن برای بخش‌های مختلف پرسشنامه بالاتر از 71/0 به دست آمد که نشان از قابلیت پایایی پرسشنامه دارد. در تحقیق حاضر با استفاده از توابع خطی و با ضرایب بدست آمده از الگوریتم تقریب تابع ژنتیک به پیش‌بینی سهم عوامل مؤثر بر آگاهی از مخاطرات تولیدکنندگان زرشک و عناب پرداخته شده است. نتایج نشان داد کمترین اثر بر شاخص مخاطرات تولیدکنندگان زرشک مربوط به خطر سرمازدگی محصول است. بیشترین درجه تأثیرگذاری را آگاهی از خطر تگرگ بر شاخص مخاطرات تولیدکنندگان عناب در منطقه خراسان جنوبی داشته است. لذا پیشنهاد می‌شود نظام ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی و هواشناسی کشاورزی برای بهبود دانش مدیریت ریسک و مهارت­های کشاورزان منطقه خراسان جنوبی، با ارائه برنامه‌های آموزشی مناسب پیش آگاهی‌های لازم را در مواجه با خطرات (خشکسالی، سرمازدگی، سیل، طوفان، بارندگی‌های ناگهانی و...) برای باغداران ترسیم نمایند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

الگوریتم تقریب تابع ژنتیک؛ خراسان جنوبی؛ زرشک؛ عناب؛ مدیریت ریسک

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