سنجش کارایی صادرات پسته ایران با استفاده از الگوی جاذبه مرزی تصادفی

مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 3، دوره 34، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 47، فروردین 1399، صفحه 29-45   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.vi0.83705

نویسندگان

حسین محمدی^* ؛ میلاد امینی زاده؛ حنانه آقاصفری

گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

امروزه، اندازه‌گیری و تحلیل کارایی صادرات به عنوان یکی از مهم­ترین مباحث در حوزه‌ی تجارت مطرح است. به عبارتی، یک صادرکننده در همه‌ی بازارها عملکرد یکسانی نداشته و نیاز است که عملکرد بازارها مورد تحلیل و بررسی قرار گیرد. هدف پژوهش حاضر، بررسی کارایی صادرات پسته ایران به بازارهای هدف در دوره زمانی 2016-2001 است. به منظور دستیابی به اهداف از الگوی جاذبه مرزی تصادفی استفاده شده است. نتایج کارایی بیانگر این است که کارایی صادرات پسته‌ی ایران در کل بازارها و بازارهای اروپایی روند کاهشی داشته است. در حالی‌که، این روند برای بازارهای آسیایی افزایشی بوده و از 412/0 به 567/0 رسیده است. بر اساس نتایج میانگین کارایی صادرات در دوره زمانی 2016-2011، از 10 کشوری که صادرات پسته‌ی ایران به آ‌ن‌ها بیش­ترین کارایی را داشته، 9 کشور آسیایی بوده و تنها کشور فرانسه از میان کشورهای اروپایی در این گروه قرار گرفته است. لذا پیشنهاد می‌شود بر اساس متغیرهای اثرگذار بر افزایش صادرات پسته ایران همانند موافقت‌نامه‌های تجاری، مرز مشترک و درآمد بالا، برنامه‌ریزی و سیاست‌گذاری مناسبی در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت جهت دستیابی به ظرفیت بالقوه و در دسترس بازارهای هدف صورت پذیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

الگوی جاذبه؛ ایران؛ صادرات پسته؛ کارایی صادرات

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