ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر شرایط هیدرولوژیکی و اقتصادی زیر حوضه کرخه جنوبی

مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 5، دوره 34، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 47، فروردین 1399، صفحه 63-79   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead2.v33i4.84531

نویسندگان

سیامک نیک مهر^* ؛ منصور زیبایی

گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

چکیده

هدف از مطالعه حاضر، ارزیابی اثرات بالقوه تغییر اقلیم و سناریو تطبیقی بهبود راندمان آبیاری بر وضعیت کشاورزی زیر حوضه کرخه جنوبی با استفاده از یک مدل هیدرولوژیکی-اقتصادی می‌باشد. در بخش اقتصادی این مدل، از روش برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP) و در بخش هیدرولوژیکی از مدل WEAP و ماژول MABIA برای شبیه‌سازی اثرات تغییر اقلیم استفاده‌شده است. نتایج مدل WEAP نشان می‌دهد که تغییر اقلیم موجب کاهش آب در دسترس در مناطق مختلف زیر حوضه کرخه جنوبی می‌شود؛ اما اثر تغییر اقلیم در مناطق مختلف متفاوت است. آب در دسترس در مناطق پای پل و کرخه نور به ترتیب به میزان 29/8 و 76/32 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. همچنین نتایج ماژول MABIA نشان می دهد که تغییر اقلیم موجب تغییر عملکرد و نیاز آبی محصولات مختلف شده است. در میان محصولات مختلف، بیشترین و کمترین تغییر عملکرد مربوط به محصولات برنج و چغندر قند بوده است. به‌گونه‌ای که عملکرد این محصولات به میزان 34 و 5/1 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. این تغییرات با افزایش نیاز آبی تمامی محصولات همراه می‌باشد. در نهایت، نتایج مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی نشان داد که براثر تغییر اقلیم، سطح زیر کشت محصولات و سود کشاورزی در زیر حوضه کرخه جنوبی، نسبت به سناریو مرجع به ترتیب به میزان 93/17 و 44 درصد کاهش می‌یابد؛ اما اتخاذ راهبرد تطبیقی بهبود راندمان آبیاری در این زیر حوضه موجب افزایش سود فعالیت‌های کشاورزی به میزان 347 میلیارد ریال خواهد شد. بنابراین استفاده از روش‌های جدید آبیاری می‌تواند ریسک کشاورزی ناشی از تغییر اقلیم را در زیر حوضه آبریز کرخه جنوبی کاهش دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تغییر اقلیم؛ روش PMP؛ زیر حوضه کرخه جنوبی؛ سناریو تطبیقی؛ مدل WEAP

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