Corona pandemic and the political future of the European Union

پژوهش نامه ایرانی سیاست بین الملل

Article 6, Volume 9, Issue 1 - Serial Number 17, June 2021, Pages 139-170   

Document Type: مقالات

DOI: 10.22067/irlip.2021.21458.0

Authors

alireza Samiee Esfahani^{* 1}; Sara Farahmand²

¹Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Yasouj

²M.A Graduated in Political Science, PNU Qazvin

Abstract

Abstract
Over the past decade, the European Union has faced unprecedented challenges on various fronts, such as the financial crisis, the migration crisis, the foreign policy crisis (Crimea), the disintegration, and the populism crisis. Meanwhile, the Corona Pandemic Crisis, although seemingly a health crisis at first glance, cannot be ignored for its geopolitical effects. The present study seeks to answer the main question based on the Neo-Neo debate and the future research method (scenario-making technique), what scenarios are ahead of the European Union in the face of the problems posed by the Corona crisis worldwide? Will this crisis lead to more or less European integration or will it lead in a different direction? In answer to this question, based on the course of events, the goals of the actors and the use of the technique of "Brainstorming", five scenarios can be proposed in the form of three categories: a) the Preferable scenario or the best; Continuing the EU's convergence and maintaining the power of acting at the level of international relations or the EU's continued convergence with the German leadership; B) Probable scenario; Transformation of the European Union into a regional confederation or the withdrawal of Italy from the European Union; C) Possible scenario; The divergence and collapse of the European Union. The findings show that the aftermath of the Quaid 19 crisis has left the EU with countless problems, with the EU failing to manage the crisis, thus undermining the EU's acting power. Internal and international levels are strongly affected.

Keywords

Corona Virus Pandemic; EU; Convergence; Divergence; Confederalism; Italy exit; Collapse

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