ارزیابی پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم و راهبردهای سازگاری با آن در دشت بوشکان استان بوشهر

مجله اقتصاد و توسعه کشاورزی

مقاله 5، دوره 35، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 51، فروردین 1400، صفحه 63-78   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jead.2021.17812.0

نویسندگان

حمیده دانشگر¹؛ مهرداد باقری^{* 1}؛ مصطفی مردانی نجف آبادی²

¹گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

²گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ،خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران

چکیده

دشت بوشکان به عنوان یکی از قطب‌های کشاورزی استان بوشهر به شمار می‌رود. هدف مطالعه حاضر ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر الگوی کشت محصولات کشاورزی دشت بوشکان می‌باشد. در این راستا مدل­های اقتصادی و هیدرولوژیکی بکار گرفته شد. متغیرهای بارندگی و دما در افق 2050 با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG تحت سناریو‌های انتشار گزارش چهارم هیات بین‌الدول تغییر اقلیم (A2 و A1B) شبیه‌سازی شد. برای بخش هیدرولوژیکی، مدلWEAP و ماژول اقتصادی-زراعی MABIA، بکار گرفته شد. در بخش اقتصادی با استفاده از برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP)، اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر الگوی کشت محصولات در مناطق مختلف دشت بوشکان مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که با تغییر اقلیم میزان آب در دسترس در سناریوهای A2 و A1B به میزان 56/18 و 44/14 کاهش می‌یابد. همچنین نتایج مدل MABIA حاکی از کاهش شدیدتر عملکرد محصولات گندم و هندوانه نسبت به سایر محصولات است. با اعمال این نتایج در مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت مشخص شد که سطح زیر کشت و سود کشاورزان در سناریو خوشبینانه به‌ترتیب به میزان 5/25 و 45/42 و در سناریو بدبینانه 6/38 و 26/55 درصد نسبت به مرجع کاهش خواهد یافت. اما نتایج ارزیابی راهبردهای بهبود راندمان آبیاری و روش کم‌آبیاری حکایت از اثرگذاری این راهبردها در کاهش اثرات منفی تغییر اقلیم دارد. راهبرد کم‌آبیاری نسبت به افزایش راندمان آبیاری به دلیل نداشتن هزینه‌های مرتبط با تغییر شیوه آبیاری سود بیشتری عاید کشاورزان می‌نماید. این راهبرد می‌تواند سود کشاورزان را تا 11 درصد در حالت خوشبینانه افزایش دهد. لذا استفاده از این دو راهبرد توسط کشاورزان توصیه می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ دشت بوشکان؛ مدل ویپ

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