مطالعه نقش شاخص های هزینه ای ثبات بودجه ای بر رابطه علّی توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی در ایران

اقتصاد پولی مالی

مقاله 5، دوره 28، بهار و تابستان 1400 - شماره پیاپی 21، شهریور 1400، صفحه 105-136   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/mfe.2021.70314.1069

نویسندگان

علی رسولی زاده ئی¹؛ علیرضا دقیقی اصلی^{* 2}؛ مرجان دامن کشیده³؛ غلامرضا گرایی نژاد⁴؛ مجید افشاری راد⁵

¹دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران،

²استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

³استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

⁴استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران،

⁵دانشیار گروه اقتصاد امور عمومی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران،

چکیده

چکیده
توسعه سیستم مالی، پیش‌شرط رشد و توسعه اقتصادی است. در این میان عملکرد سیستم مالی در گرو برقراری ستون­های توسعه مالی است و یکی از مهم­ترین آن‌ها ثبات مالی است. ثبات مالی وضعیتی است که در آن، وقوع بحران­های سیستمی نتواند ثبات اقتصاد کلان را از بین ببرد. برقراری ثبات مالی در گرو وجود یک دولت ضابطه­مند با ساختار بودجه با ثبات است. با توجه به اهمیت این موضوع، در این مقاله اثرگذاری شاخص­های بودجه­ای ثبات اقتصاد کلان (در بخش هزینه­ها) بر رابطه علّی توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی ایران طی دوره 1396-1357 با بهره­گیری از آزمون علیّت سه متغیره بر مبنای الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری (VECM) موردبررسی قرار گرفته است. پیش از برآورد الگو، شاخص چند بعدی توسعه مالی که معرف 7 شاخص توسعه مالی در بخش بانکی هستند با استفاده از تکنیک تجزیه مؤلفه­های اصلی (PCA) محاسبه شده است. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از برآورد الگو، یک رابطه علی یک‌طرفه از سمت توسعه مالی به رشد اقتصادی وجود دارد. همچنین عملکرد دولت‌ها به‌جز در مورد شاخص­های نسبت بدهی دولت و مخارج جاری دولت به GDP، موجب از بین رفتن ثبات مالی شده و بر هم زننده رابطه علی میان توسعه مالی و رشد اقتصادی، هم در کوتاه­مدت و هم در بلندمدت بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

توسعه مالی؛ رشد اقتصادی؛ شاخص‌های ثبات بودجه‌ای؛ الگوی علیت سه متغیره VECM

سایر فایل های مرتبط با مقاله

Extended abstract 21.pdf

مراجع

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