بررسی پیش‌نشانگر ناهنجاری حرارتی در زمین‌لرزة ۱۳۹۶ ازگلة کرمانشاه

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

مقاله 5، دوره 13، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 50، تیر 1403، صفحه 92-114   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/geoeh.2023.83439.1397

نویسندگان

مصطفی حیدری¹؛ احمد مزیدی^{* 2}؛ ایمان روستا²

¹کارشناس ارشد سنجش‌ازدور، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

²دانشیار اقلیم‌شناسی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

چکیده

گرم شدن هوا و زمین پیش از رخداد زلزله‌ها، پیش‌نشانگری است که از دوران باستان شناخته شده است. امروزه درستی این افسانه، با عنوان علمی ناهنجاری حرارتی، در زلزله‌های بسیاری به اثبات رسیده است. هدف این پژوهش، بررسی بروز این ناهنجاری در دورة بلندمدت سه سالة پیش از زلزلة ۱۳۹۶ ازگلة کرمانشاه با روش ساده انحراف از میانگین متحرک است. نتایج نشان داد که در یکی دو هفته پیش از رخداد این زلزله، هم در پارامتر‌های هواشناسی دمای هوا، دمای خاک و رطوبت هوا در ایستگاه همدید تازه‌آباد و هم در پارامتر ماهواره‌ای دمای سطح زمین، ناهنجاری روزانة کم‌سابقه یا بی‌سابقه‌ای رخ داده است. این ناهنجاری‌ها حرارتی می‌تواند با رخداد زلزله در پیوند باشد. بررسی مکانی ناهنجاری در دمای سطح زمین که ۱۵ روز پیش از زلزله رخ داده بود، روشن ساخت که در آن روز، مرز خشکی دو صفحه عربستان و اوراسیا در غرب ایران، گرم بوده و ناحیه‌ای داغ در مرکز عراق با کشیدگی به سمت رومرکز زلزله پدیدار شده است. دیگر آزمون‌ها نشان داد این روش ساده کشف ناهنجاری، قادر به شناسایی ناهنجاری حرارتی پیش از زلزله‌های ۱۳۸۲ بم و ۱۳۸۹ محمدآباد ریگان، هر دو در استان کرمان نیز هست. زلزله ازگله، شاخصی برای زلزله‌های منطقة فعال و پرجمعیت زاگرس است. امید این دست پژوهش‌ها، شناخت بهتر پیش‌نشانگر‌های زلزله در هر منطقه با هدف تحقق رؤیای پیش‌بینی زلزله است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ناهنجاری حرارتی؛ پیش‌بینی زلزله؛ پیش‌نشانگرهای زلزله؛ دمای سطح زمین؛ روش انحراف از میانگین متحرک؛ زاگرس ایران

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