شناخت الگوهای مکانی مخاطرات دمایی استان قزوین

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

مقاله 11، دوره 13، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 51، آبان 1403، صفحه 280-309   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/geoeh.2023.83713.1401

نویسندگان

منصوره کوهی؛ ابراهیم اسعدی اسکویی^*

استادیار، پژوهشگاه هواشناسی و علوم جو، پژوهشکده اقلیم شناسی، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

مخاطرات اقلیمی به‌ویژه انواع دمایی آن، دارای اثرات منفی بر بخش­ های مختلف فعالیت‌های بشر هستند. از آنجایی‌که انتظار می ­رود تغییرات اقلیمی منجر به تشدید فراوانی، شدت و مدت مخاطرات اقلیمی شود؛ لذا ضروری است استراتژی­ هایی همچون استخراج الگوهای مخاطرات اقلیمی به‌منظور افزایش تاب­ آوری مراکز جمعیتی، صنعتی و کشاورزی در برابر تغییر اقلیم و افزایش رخدادهای فرین و سازگاری با این رویدادها، مدنظر تصمیم­ گیران، برنامه­ ریزان و سیاست­ گذاران قرار گیرد. استان قزوین با توجه به موقعیت جغرافیایی، وسعت کم، توپوگرافی خاص و شرایط اقلیمی متنوع، هرساله شاهد وقوع پدیده­ های مخرب جوی در فصول مختلف می­ باشد که خسارات جانی و مالی زیادی را در بخش ­های مختلف همچون کشاورزی به همراه داشته است.
 در این پژوهش، داده­ های شبکه ­ای دمای بازتحلیل ERA5-Land با قدرت تفکیک مکانی 9 کیلومتر طی دوره 2020-1991 برای بررسی توزیع مکانی نمایه ­های مرتبط با مخاطرات اقلیمی دمایی سرد و گرم شامل روزهای یخبندان (FD)، روزهای یخی (ID) ، شب­های حاره ­ای  (TR)، نمایه طول دوره گرما  (WSDI)و سرما (CSDI) و روزهایی با دمای بیشینه بیش از C° 35 (TXge35) استفاده و نقشه مخاطرات چندگانه تهیه شد.
بررسی­ ها نشان داد منطقه مرکزی استان قزوین در معرض چندین نوع خطر (TXge35،CSDI،FD و TR) به­ طور هم‌زمان قرار دارد که با توجه به تراکم جمعیت شهری و روستایی و تمرکز فعالیت ­های اقتصادی در این ناحیه، انتظار می­ رود ریسک­ های اقتصادی-اجتماعی مرتبط با مخاطرات اقلیمی در این ناحیه شدت یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تأثیرات تغییر اقلیم؛ ارزیابی مخاطرات اقلیمی؛ کاهش خطر بلایا؛ راهبردهای سازگاری با اقلیم؛ نقشه‌برداری چندمخاطره‌ای؛ آسیب‌پذیری اجتماعی-اقتصادی

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