ارزیابی عملکرد مدل‌های هیدرولوژیکی نیمه‌توزیعی(SWAT) و یکپارچه(SMAR) در برآورد و شبیه‌سازی بارش-رواناب، مطالعه موردی:حوضه‌آبریز اوجان‌چای

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

مقاله 7، دوره 14، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 53، فروردین 1404، صفحه 123-150   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/geoeh.2024.85638.1436

نویسندگان

محمدحسین رضائی مقدم^{* 1}؛ فریبا کرمی¹؛ کلثوم اباذری²

¹استاد ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

²دانش‌آموخته مقطع دکترای ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

یکی از راهکارهای مهم مدیریت اصولی و صحیح آب و خاک در حوضه‌های آبریز، استفاده از مدل‌های هیدرولوژیکی در شبیه‌سازی فرآیند‌های بارش-رواناب است که تخمین و پیش‌بینی مولفه‌های بیلان آبی از جمله رواناب، تبخیر و تعرق و نفوذ را خصوصا در حوضه‌های فاقد آمار یا دارای آمار ناقص امکان‌پذیر می‌کند. در این پژوهش بیلان آبی حوضه‌آبریز اوجان‌چای در طی دوره 20 ساله (2002- 2021) با استفاده از مدل نیمه‌توزیعیSWAT   و مدل یکپارچه SMAR  شبیه‌سازی شد. در مدل SWAT از الگوریتم SUFI-2 و در مدل SMAR  از بهینه‌ساز الگوریتم ژنتیک، جهت واسنجی (2005 تا 2016) و اعتبار‌سنجی (2017تا 2021) بهره گرفته‌ شد. نتایج شبیه‌سازیSWAT در مرحله واسنجی با توابع هدف ضرایب نش‌ساتکلیف (NSE)،   و RSR به‌ترتیب برابر با 80/0، 81/0 و 45/0 و برای اعتبار‌سنجی به ترتیب‌74/0، 75/0 و 51/ 0 به دست آمد که نشان‌دهنده کارایی بالای مدل در شبیه‌سازی بیلان آبی حوضه‌آبریز است و در روش SMAR ضرایب نش‌ساتکلیف (NSE)،   در واسنجی 60/0 ، 56/0 و در اعتبارسنجی 625/0، 67/0 بدست آمد. هر دوی این روش‌ها در شبیه‌سازی دبی‌های پایه و متوسط  نسبت به دبی‌های حداکثری عملکرد بهتری دارند ولی با این حال تطابق دبی شبیه‌سازی شده با دبی مشاهداتی در مدل SWAT نسبت به SMAR برتری دارد که علت آن درنظر گرفتن تغییرات مکانی در این نوع از مدل‌ها است. لذا با توجه به نتایج خیلی خوب کارایی مدلها، پیشنهاد می‌شود از آن دراقدامات حفاظتی حوضه‌ها و  مدیریت آب و خاک استفاده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

شبیه‌سازی رواناب؛ مدل SWAT؛ مدلSMAR؛ الگوریتم SUFI-2؛ کارایی نش-ساتکلیف؛ ضریب تعیین (R²)؛ حوضه آبریز اوجان چای؛ مدل‌سازی هیدرولوژیکی

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