مقایسه روش‌های مختلف تصمیم‌گیری چند معیاره در اولویت‌بندی سیل‌خیزی زیرحوضه‌های آبخیز کشف‌رود

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

مقاله 7، دوره 13، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 52، دی 1403، صفحه 159-196   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/geoeh.2024.88777.1498

نویسندگان

مریم زارع¹؛ محمود آذری^{* 2}؛ محسن رضائی عارفی³

¹دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد علوم و مهندسی آبخیز، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

²دانشیار گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

³گروه آموزش جغرافیا، دانشگاه فرهنگیان، تهران، ایران

چکیده

سیل یکی از رایج­ترین خطرات طبیعی است که هم زندگی و هم دارایی­ های مردم را تحت تأثیر قرار می­ دهد. تغییرات آب و هوایی اخیر باعث افزایش فراوانی و شدت سیل شده است. در چنین شرایطی شناسایی مناطق بالقوه خطر سیل برای کاهش خسارات ناشی از سیل بسیار مهم است. ازاین‌رو، این مطالعه با استفاده از شاخص ­های مورفومتری و روش ­های تصمیم‌گیری چند معیاره به دنبال شناسایی مناطق آسیب‌پذیر سیلاب در زیرحوضه ­های حوضه آبخیز کشف رود است. بدین منظور 16 شاخص مورفومتری از DEM منطقه استخراج شد و سیل‌خیزی زیرحوضه ­های مختلف با استفاده از 5 روش تصمیم ­گیری چندمعیاره شامل AHP، ANP، VIKOR، TOPSIS و ELECTRE تعیین گردید و در پنج طبقه سیل ­خیزی خیلی ­­زیاد، زیاد، متوسط، کم و خیلی ­­کم طبقه ­بندی شد. نتایج روش ­های مختلف تصمیم ­گیری چندمعیاره با استفاده از همبستگی اسپیرمن و بررسی درصد تغییرات مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. درنهایت مشخص گردید روش ANP در تهیه نقشه سیل­ خیزی حوضه دارای دقت بیشتری است و اختلاف معنی‌داری بین روش ANP،AHP و VIKOR با نقشه سیل­ خیزی حوضه بر اساس داده ­های مشاهداتی وجود ندارد. در بررسی درصد تغییرات نیز مشخص شد کمترین درصد تغییرات مربوط به روش ANP است. بر اساس نتایج این روش 3/24 درصد حوضه در طبقه سیل­ خیزی خیلی زیاد و 7/25 درصد در طبقه زیاد قرار دارند و درمجموع بیش از 50 درصد حوضه در طبقه سیل ­خیزی زیاد و خیلی زیاد قرار می­ گیرند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ارزیابی خطر سیل؛ تحلیل ریخت‌سنجی؛ تحلیل چندمعیاره؛ حوضه آبخیز کشف‌رود؛ خراسان رضوی؛ مدیریت و اولویت‌بندی حوضه آبخیز

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