تحلیل روابط ایران و عربستان از منظر تئوری سیگنالینگ (1402-1390)

پژوهش نامه ایرانی سیاست بین الملل

دوره 13، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 25، دی 1403، صفحه 73-51   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/irlip.2024.83741.1422

نویسندگان

فرشته بهرامی پور^{* 1}؛ کامران کرمی²

¹دانشگاه اصفهان

²دانش آموخته دکتری روابط بین الملل دانشگاه گیلان و پژوهشگر مهمان مرکز مطالعات استراتژیک خاورمیانه

چکیده

روابط جمهوری اسلامی ایران و پادشاهی عربستان سعودی در طول چند دهه گذشته تا به امروز بین منازعه، رقابت و همکاری محدود در نوسان بوده است. اغلب، رقابت و منازعه این دو بازیگر براساس رویکردهای ایدئولوژیکی و یا ژئوپلیتیکی و همکاری آن‌ها براساس نظریات منطقه‌گرایی و مبتنی بر ساختار نظام بین‌الملل تحلیل می‌شود اما بررسی فهم و ادراک نخبگان سیاسی و نظامی آنان عمدتاً موردتوجه قرار نمی‌گیرد. این پژوهش به دنبال آن است با بررسی اظهارات و رفتار نخبگان سیاسی- نظامی دو کشور، تأثیر این سیگنال‌ها را بر منازعه، تطویل مذاکرات، سرعت توافقات اخیر و آینده روابط دو بازیگر مورد بررسی قرار دهد. سؤال اصلی که مطرح می‌شود این است که: سیگنال‌های ارسالی نخبگان سیاسی-نظامی ایران و عربستان چه تأثیری بر روابط آن‌ها داشته است؟ در پاسخ به سؤال فوق در چارچوب تئوری سیگنالینگ و با روش تحلیل محتوای کیفی این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که: سیگنال‌های ارسالی نخبگان سیاسی- نظامی و رفتار ایران و عربستان نسبت به یکدیگر باعث شده است نخبگان دو کشور در مقاطعی ادراک مبتنی بر تهدید از یکدیگر داشته باشند و این امر به طولانی شدن مذاکرات و درنتیجه تشدید رقابت و منازعه میان آن‌ها منجر شده است و در مقاطع دیگر این سیگنا-ل‌ها مبتنی بر همکاری و بازی با حاصل جمع غیرصفر بوده که دو بازیگر را به یکدیگر نزدیک کرده و توافقاتی میان آن‌ها شکل گرفته است. با توجه به تجربه چنین فرازوفرود‌هایی در ارسال سیگنال‌ها پیش‌بینی می‌شود روابط ایران و عربستان در یک دوره میان مدت با گذار از منازعه بین رقابت و همکاری محدود در نوسان باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ایران؛ عربستان؛ سیگنالینگ؛ منازعه؛ همکاری

مراجع

 

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