ارزیابی مخاطره خشکسالی و اثرات آن بر ناپایداری روستاهای مقصد گردشگری مورد مطالعه: روستاهای مقصد گردشگری منطقه ترشیز

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

دوره 14، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 54، تیر 1404، صفحه 173-198   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/geoeh.2025.87795.1479

نویسندگان

فهیمه جعفری¹؛ خدیجه بوزرجمهری^{* 1}؛ حسنعلی فرجی سبکبار²؛ حمدالله سجاسی قیداری¹

¹گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

²دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

صنعت گردشگری در مناطق روستایی نقش مهمی در کاهش بیکاری، افزایش درآمد و ماندگاری و پایداری روستاها دارد. اما این صنعت نسبت به مخاطرات آب و هوایی به خصوص مخاطره خشکسالی بسیار حساس بوده و بروز مخاطرات می‌تواند اثرات منفی و جبران ناپذیری در روستاهای مقصد گردشگری برجای گذارد. از این رو پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی اثرات مخاطره خشکسالی بر پایداری روستاهای مقصد گردشگری منطقه ترشیز انجام گرفته است. برای بررسی وضعیت خشکسالی منطقه از داده‌های بارندگی 8 ایستگاه سینوپتیک در طی دوره آماری 2000 تا 2020 در مقیاس ماهانه استفاده شد. ابتدا با استفاده از نرم‌افزار DRINC مقادیر شاخص SPI محاسبه شد. سپس جهت بررسی روند خشکسالی در سال‌های موردنظر، نقشه‌های پهنه بندی سالانه تهیه شد مقادیر بدست آمده از شاخص SPI نشان داد منطقه مورد مطالعه در طی دوره آماری (2000 تا 2020) در محدوده خشکسالی قرار گرفته است. براین اساس در ادامه جهت بررسی اثرات خشکسالی بر روستاهای مقصد گردشگری از ابزار پرسشنامه محقق ساخته استفاده شد. بدین ترتیب از نظرات 30 نفر از کارشناسان، اساتید و دانشجویان دکتری فعال در حوزه گردشگری روستایی و مخاطرات جهت ارزیابی میزان اثر هریک از مولفه‌های تحقیق بهره گرفته شد. سپس جهت اولویت‌بندی مولفه‌های تحقیق از روش وزن‌دهی MEREC استفاده شد. نتایج حاصل از محاسبه شاخص SPI نشان داد در طی دوره آماری 2000 تا 2020 منطقه موردمطالعه با خشکسالی خفیف مواجه بوده است و نتایج حاصل از مدل MEREC نشان داد از میان عوامل اثرات خشکسالی، عامل‌های اقتصادی و محیطی بیشترین تأثیر را بر پایداری روستاهای مقصد گردشگری دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

پایداری گردشگری روستایی؛ ارزیابی ریسک خشکسالی؛ شاخص استاندارد بارش(SPI)؛ تحلیل آسیب پذیری گردشگری؛ منطقه ترشیز

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