Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Zagros Oak Forest Cover (Northeaster Khuzestan)

جغرافیاوتوسعه ناحیه ای

Article 9, Volume 23, Issue 1 - Serial Number 50, May 2025, Pages 257-291   

Document Type: Research

DOI: 10.22067/jgrd.2025.93010.1548

Authors

Mossa Molaye¹; Dariush Rahimi^{* 2}; Reza Zakerinezhad³

¹Ph.D. Student in Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

²Associate Professor in Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

³Assistant Professor in Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Department of Physical Geography, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

Abstract

Forests are considered one of the main chains of life due to their important role in the oxygen, water and carbon cycles. Zagros oak forests are the dominant species of Zagros forests. In this study, the forest cover of ​​the northeastern Khuzestan in the counties of Dezpart, Izeh and Baghmalek was investigated. MODIS satellite images from 2000 to 2020 were used to investigate the effect of climate change on forest cover in the region, data on precipitation, temperature, annual mean temperature and land surface temperature from meteorological stations, as well as NDVI, LST, TCI, and VCI indices. The trend of the variables was examined using the Pettitt test. The results of the P-test confirmed an increase in air and land surface temperature by 1 ◦C, a decline in water levels and medium and dense vegetation cover, a surge in the VCI and a reduction in the TCI. In addition, it was found that the year 2007 marked the data trend change. The results of the non-parametric test of turning points (Pettitt’s Test) of the mean annual temperature and precipitation (1975-2020) in the region revealed that the air temperature had a significant trend at a 95% CI (P-value = 0.011). The spring temperature has increased by about 1.8 ◦C since 2009. The results of this test were not significant for annual precipitation (P-value = 0.175). The findings suggested that the range of changes in the water condition of the region dropped from 3.08 to 0.08 in the 2007-2020 period. The anomaly of the annual precipitation in the region confirms a long-term drought period from 2007 to 2017. Changes in vegetation and humidity in the region denote rising humidity fluctuations during this time period. These two indicators suggest a fall in forest cover in the region from 2000 to 2020. These changes, along with rising temperatures and continuing droughts, serve as positive feedback. The continuity of the current climate trend will decrease carbon sequestration and base flow, and change river water regime. The cybernetic effects of these actions will wreak havoc on economic and social structure and fuel climate migration.

Keywords

Climate Change; Oak Forest; Vegetation Condition Index (VCI); Thermal Condition Index (TCI); Zagros Mountain

References