پارامتر‌یابی و ارزیابی مدل SSM-iCrop برای پیش‌بینی رشد، نمو فنولوژیک و عملکرد ذرت (Zea mays L.) دانه‌ای در ایران

پژوهشهای زراعی ایران

مقاله 2، دوره 23، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 80، دی 1404، صفحه 399-415   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jcesc.2025.90531.1362

نویسندگان

نعیمه بیاتیان^* ؛ افشین سلطانی^* ؛ ابراهیم زینلی

گروه زراعت، دانشکده تولید گیاهی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران

چکیده

بخش عمده نیاز کشور به ذرت (Zea mays L.) از طریق وارادات تأمین می‌شود. با توجه به کمبود اراضی قابل کشت و محدودیت منابع آب قابل دسترس، افزایش عملکرد در واحد سطح تنها راه‌حل موجود برای افزایش تولید است. کاهش خلأ عملکرد از طریق بهینه‌سازی مدیریت تولید، رویکردی مؤثر برای حصول این هدف است. استفاده از یک مدل شبیه‌سازی قابل اعتماد می‌تواند با ارزیابی شیوه‌های مدیریتی، نقش قابل توجهی در کاهش خلأ عملکرد و دستیابی به عملکرد بهینه ایفا نماید. یکی از منابع عدم قطعیت در پیش‌بینی مدل‌های گیاهی، تخمین مقادیر پارامترهای ورودی مدل است. این مطالعه با هدف پارامتر‌یابی و ارزیابی مدل SSM-iCrop برای ذرت دانه‌ای در ایران انجام شد. به این ‌منظور، ابتدا پارامتر‌‌های گیاهی مدل با استفاده از نتایج مطالعاتی که در بازه سال‌های 1380 تا 1401 در کشور انجام گرفته بود، تخمین زده ‌شد، به‌طوری‌که اختلاف بین نتایج مشاهده‌شده در آزمایشات مزرعه‌ای و نتایج پیش‌بینی‌شده توسط مدل به حداقل رسید. سپس مدل با استفاده از بخش دیگری از مطالعات ارزیابی گردید. براساس نتایج، مدل به‌خوبی توانست مراحل نمو فنولوژیک شامل روز بیولوژیک تا سبز شدن، تاسل‌دهی، ابریشم‌دهی و رسیدگی فیزیولوژیک (RMSE =13.22, CV= 17.4, r= 0.97)، شاخص سطح برگ (RMSE =0.4, CV= 6.2, r= 0.98)، عملکرد بیولوژیک (RMSE =431.3, CV= 23.9, r= 0.66) و عملکرد دانه (RMSE= 161.9, CV= 16.9, r= 0.81) را پیش‌بینی نماید. براساس نتایج به‌دست‌آمده، مدل SSM-iCrop می‌تواند به‌عنوان یک ابزار قابل اعتماد در ارزیابی و بهینه‌سازی شیوه‌های مدیریت تولید ذرت در شرایط کشور مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

شبیه‌سازی؛ عملکرد دانه؛ مدل‌سازی گیاهی

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