Systems Dynamics Modelling of Gasoline Consumption in Iran

Journal of Systems Thinking in Practice

دوره 4، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 14، آذر 2025، صفحه 1-21   

نوع مقاله: Research Article

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jstinp.2025.91024.1129

نویسندگان

Mahsa Khalilabadi؛ Mohammad Mirbagherijam^* ؛ Hamideh Moharrami

Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran.

چکیده

This study presents a dynamic analysis of gasoline demand in Iran from 1978 to 2021, employing a system dynamics approach. A comprehensive model was developed to forecast gasoline consumption, incorporating key variables such as population, trip frequency, the number of gasoline-only vehicles, dual-fuel (gasoline-CNG) vehicles, the number of CNG stations, and the consumer price index (CPI). The model explicitly captures the complex and dynamic interrelationships among these variables, providing a nuanced understanding of the factors influencing gasoline consumption. Model validation was performed by comparing model predictions with actual gasoline consumption data from 2006 to 2021. The results demonstrate a satisfactory level of accuracy in simulating past gasoline consumption patterns. Following validation, the model was used to project gasoline demand from 2022 to 2031. In addition to a base scenario, three alternative scenarios were explored to assess the impact of different policy interventions aimed at reducing gasoline consumption. These scenarios involved increasing the number of dual-fuel vehicles, increasing the number of CNG stations, and a combined scenario incorporating both interventions. The projection results indicate that all three alternative scenarios lead to significant reductions in gasoline consumption compared to the base scenario. Notably, the scenario focusing on increasing the number of dual-fuel vehicles had the most substantial impact on reducing gasoline consumption. These findings underscore the importance of developing CNG infrastructure and promoting the adoption of dual-fuel vehicles as effective strategies for reducing gasoline dependence and managing fuel consumption in Iran. This research provides policymakers with a robust dynamic model for informed decision-making in fuel consumption management. Furthermore, the findings and methodology can be broadly applied to similar studies in other countries and related fields of energy and environmental research.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Gasoline Consumption؛ Iran؛ Systems Dynamics؛ Energy Policy؛ CNG؛ Forecasting

مراجع

Abediasl, H., Ansari, A., Hosseini, V., Koch, C.R. and Shahbakhti, M., 2024. Real-time vehicular fuel consumption estimation using machine learning and on-board diagnostics data. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part D: Journal of Automobile Engineering, 238(12), pp.3779-3793. https://doi.org/10.1177/09544070231185609.

Akbari, F., Mahpour, A. and Ahadi, M.R., 2020. Evaluation of energy consumption and CO2 emission reduction policies for urban transport with system dynamics approach. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 25(4), pp.505-520. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-020-09695-w.

Al-Ghandoor, A., Jaber, J., Al-Hinti, I. and Abdallat, Y., 2013. Statistical assessment and analyses of the determinants of transportation sector gasoline demand in Jordan. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 50, pp.129-138. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2013.01.022.

Allen, T. and Arkolakis, C., 2022. The welfare effects of transportation infrastructure improvements. The Review of Economic Studies, 89(6), pp.2911-2957. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac001.

An-loh, L., Botsas, E.N. and Monroe, S.A., 1985. State gasoline consumption in the USA: an econometric analysis. Energy Economics, 7(1), pp.29-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-9883(85)90036-2.

Ansarinasab, M. and Manzari Tavakoli, Z., 2020. Modeling Gasoline Consumption Behaviors in Iran Based on Long Memory and Regime Change. Quarterly Energy Economics Review, 16(64), pp.125-149. URL: http://iiesj.ir/article-1-1145-en.html. [in Persian].

Ayyıldız, E. and Murat, M., 2024. A lasso regression-based forecasting model for daily gasoline consumption: Türkiye Case. Turkish Journal of Engineering, 8(1), pp.162-174. https://doi.org/10.31127/tuje.1354501.

Bates, M. and Kim, S., 2024. Estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand in correlated random coefficient models with endogeneity. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 39(4), pp.679-696. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3042.

Bayat, N., Davoodi, M.M. and Rezaei, A., 2023. Forecasting Gasoline Consumption in Iran using Deep Learning Approaches. Iranian Economic Review, 27(2), pp.347-376. 10.22059/ier.2023.317681.1007087.

Ceylan, Z., Akbulut, D. and Baytürk, E., 2024. Forecasting gasoline consumption using machine learning algorithms during COVID-19 pandemic. Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects, 46(1), pp.16623-16641. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567036.2021.2024919

Chang, C.C., 2016. Causal analysis of carbon emissions, deadweight tonnage of global shipping fleet, fuel oil consumption, and economic activities in marine transportation. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 11(4), pp.303-308. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2011.607884.

Ford, A., 2018. System dynamics models of environment, energy, and climate change. In Encyclopedia of complexity and systems science (pp. 1-25). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.

Ghoddusi, H., Morovati, M. and Rafizadeh, N., 2019. Foreign exchange shocks and gasoline consumption. Energy Economics, 84, p.104472. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.08.005.

Goetzke, F. and Vance, C., 2021. An increasing gasoline price elasticity in the United States?. Energy economics, 95, p.104982. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104982.

Heidari, E., Bikdeli, S. and Daneshvar, M.R.M., 2023. A dynamic model for CO2 emissions induced by urban transportation during 2005–2030, a case study of Mashhad, Iran. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 25(5), pp.4217-4236. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02240-7.

Iran Chamber Newsroom, 2024. Iran’s average daily gasoline consumption reaches 113m liters. Available at: https://en.otaghiranonline.ir/news/45254.

Jafari, H.H. and Baratimalayeri, A., 2008. The crisis of gasoline consumption in the Iran's transportation sector. Energy Policy, 36(7), pp.2536-2543. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.03.014.

Kilian, L. and Zhou, X., 2024. Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand. Journal of Public Economics, 232, p.105099. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105099.

Lee, C.C. and Olasehinde-Williams, G., 2021. Gasoline demand elasticities in the world’s energy gluttons: a time-varying coefficient approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(45), pp.64830-64847. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-15615-6.

Maleki, A., Ashrafi, M.H. and Raei, H., 2024. Overview of energy policy in Iran: the proper path to clean energy. Academia Green Energy, 1(2). https://doi.org/10.20935/AcadEnergy7316.

Mikayilov, J.I., Joutz, F.L. and Hasanov, F.J., 2020a. Gasoline demand in Saudi Arabia: are the price and income elasticities constant?. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 15(4), pp.211-229. https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2020.1775325.

Mikayilov, J.I., Mukhtarov, S. and Mammadov, J., 2020b. Gasoline demand elasticities at the backdrop of lower oil prices: Fuel-subsidizing country case. Energies, 13(24), p.6752. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13246752.

Moshiri, S. and Aliyev, K., 2017. Rebound effect of efficiency improvement in passenger cars on gasoline consumption in Canada. Ecological economics, 131, pp.330-341. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.09.018.

Moshiri, S., 2020. Consumer responses to gasoline price and non-price policies. Energy Policy, 137, p.111078. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111078.

Mosleh Shirazi, A.N. and Sotodeh, F., 2015. Simulating the role of subsidies reform in fuel consumption by system dynamics approach. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 4(13), pp.107-125. URL:https://aes.basu.ac.ir/article_1036_en.html. [in Persian].

Newman, P. and Kenworthy, J., 2021. Gasoline consumption and cities revisited: what have we learnt?. Current Urban Studies, 9(3), pp.532-553. https://doi.org/10.4236/cus.2021.93032.

Nitoiu, C., Cofaru, C. & Popescu, M., 2025. Influence of road and traffic conditions on emissions and fuel consumption of light vehicles in a real urban driving cycle. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 32, pp. 15050–15065. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-025-36573-3.

Norouzi, N., Majedi, S. and Abbasi, V., 2022. Dynamic modeling of the effect of Vehicle Hybridization policy on carbon emission and energy consumption. Journal of Chemistry Letters, 3(2), pp.99-107. https://doi.org/10.22034/jchemlett.2022.352806.1078.

Pourmatin, M., Moeini-Aghtaie, M., Hassannayebi, E. and Hewitt, E., 2024. Transition to Low-Carbon Vehicle Market: Characterization, System Dynamics Modeling, and Forecasting. Energies, 17(14), p.3525. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17143525.

Raei, H., Maleki, A. and Farajzadeh, Z., 2024. Analysis of energy policy reform in Iran: Energy and emission intensity changes. Economic Analysis and Policy, 81, pp.1535-1557. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2024.02.023.

Rogat, J. and Sterner, T., 1998. The determinants of gasoline demand in some Latin American countries. International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 11(1-4), pp.162-170. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJGEI.1998.071441.

Romero, C.A., Correa, P., Ariza Echeverri, E.A. and Vergara, D., 2024. Strategies for reducing automobile fuel consumption. Applied Sciences, 14(2), p.910. https://doi.org/10.3390/app14020910.

Roudbaraki, M., Valipour, M.S., Khorasani, A.F. and Salehi, G.R., 2025. Integrating Data Mining and System Dynamics to Model Energy Policy Development and Sustainability Assessment. Petroleum Business Review (PBR), 9(1). https://doi.org/10.22050/pbr.2025.475979.1348.

Salimi, M., Moradi, M.A. and Amidpour, M., 2022. Modeling and outlook analysis of gasoline supply and demand and sensitivity analysis of main economic and social drivers. Energy, 256, p.124686. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124686.

Samavi, M., Panahi, M., Abedi, Z. and Ahmadian, M., 2024. Assessing the Economic Impact of Using ITSs (Intelligent Transportation Systems) on Gasoline Consumption in Iran (Case Study of Karaj-Chalous Axis). Road, 32(120), pp.331-348. https://doi.org/10.22034/road.2023.367900.2107. [in Persian].

Sapnken, E.F., Tamba, J.G., Essiane, S.N., Koffi, F.D. and Njomo, D., 2018. Modeling and forecasting gasoline consumption in Cameroon using linear regression models. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 8(2), pp.111-120. URL: https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/5985.

Saryazdi, A.H.G. and Tavangar, L., 2023. Dynamics of Gasoline Price Changes; The Effects of Pricing Policies in Iran. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3394892/v1.

Shamsapour, N., Hajinezhad, A. and Noorollahi, Y., 2021. Developing a system dynamics approach for CNG vehicles for low-carbon urban transport: a case study. International journal of low-carbon technologies, 16(2), pp.577-591. https://doi.org/10.1093/ijlct/ctaa085.

Vafa-Arani, H., Jahani, S., Dashti, H., Heydari, J. and Moazen, S., 2014. A system dynamics modeling for urban air pollution: A case study of Tehran, Iran. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 31, pp.21-36. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2014.05.016.

Yang, Y., Gong, N., Xie, K. and Liu, Q., 2022. Predicting gasoline vehicle fuel consumption in energy and environmental impact based on machine learning and multidimensional big data. Energies, 15(5), p.1602. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15051602.

Yu, L., Ma, Y. and Ma, M., 2021. An effective rolling decomposition-ensemble model for gasoline consumption forecasting. Energy, 222, p.119869. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.119869.

Zareayan Mazrae Khosro, R. and Shakouri Ganjavi, H., 2016. System Analysis Gasoline Demand and Estimating the Price Elasticity in the Province of Tehran, Iranian Energy Economics, 5(18), pp. 61–98. https://doi.org/10.22054/jiee.2016.7193. [in Persian]