پیش‌نمایی خشکسالی‌های کوتاه‌مدت در ایران: تحلیل جامع بر اساس سناریوهای اجتماعی و اقتصادی مشترک (SSP)

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 16 مهر 1404   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/geoeh.2025.94153.1586

نویسندگان

علیرضا کربلایی^{* 1}؛ فائزه شجاع²؛ سعیده اشرفی³؛ محمد کمانگر⁴

¹گروه آب و هواشناسی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران، تهران، ایران.

²محقق پسادکتری اقلیم‌شناسی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

³محقق پسادکتری اقلیم‌شناسی، دانشکده جغرافیای فیزیکی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.

⁴محقق پسادکتری در سنجش از دور و سیستم‌های اطلاعات جغرافیایی، گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

خشکسالی یکی از بزرگ‌ترین چالش‌های زیست‌محیطی واجتماعی درسطح جهانی است که پیامدهای جدی برامنیت غذایی ومدیریت منابع آبی کشورها دارد. این پژوهش به پیش‌بینی خشکسالی‌های کوتاه‌مدت در ایران با استفاده از سناریوهای اجتماعی و اقتصادی مشترک (SSP) می‌پردازد. داده‌های 95 ایستگاه همدیدی برای دوره 1985-2014 به عنوان دوره پایه استفاده شد. پنج مدل گردش عمومی شامل GFDL-ESM4، IPSL-CM6A-LR، MPI-ESM1-2-HR و UKESM1-0-LL برای پیش‌بینی بارش به کار گرفته شدند. داده‌ها با روش کریجینگ و تصحیح اریبی پردازش شدندبرای کاهش عدم قطعیت، از همادی چندمدلی استفاده شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهدکه داده‌های همادی‌شده همخوانی قابل توجهی با داده‌های واقعی دارند، با کاهش خطاوافزایش ضریب همبستگی. مدل Ensemble عملکرد بهتری نسبت به سایر مدل‌ها داشت. تحلیل بارش در دوره پایه نشان داد که الگوهای بارش به شدت تحت تأثیر عوامل جغرافیایی و اقلیمی قرار دارند، با بارش‌های بالا در ارتفاعات زاگرس و سواحل جنوب غربی دریای خزر در ماه‌های سرد. پیش‌بینی‌ها برای دوره 2021-2040 بر اساس سناریوی SSP5-8.5 نشان‌دهنده تغییرات قابل توجهی در الگوهای بارش است. افزایش بارش در نواحی مرتفع و کرانه‌های دریای خزر پیش‌بینی شده، اما افزایش دما ممکن است اثرات مثبت را خنثی کند. کاهش بارش در بخش‌های شمال غربی و مرکزی کشور، به‌ویژه در بهار و تابستان، پیش‌بینی شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

خشکسالی‌؛ سناریوهای اجتماعی و اقتصادی مشترک (SSP)؛ مدل‌سازی بارش؛ همادی؛ مدیریت منابع آبی

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