Systems Thinking in Investigating the Youth Unemployment Problem in Iran

Journal of Systems Thinking in Practice

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 12 آبان 1404

نوع مقاله: Research Article

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jstinp.2025.94882.1170

نویسندگان

Ramezan khosravi^{* 1}؛ Akram Esmaeili Avval²

¹Department of Engineering, Industrial Engineering group, Gonabad, Iran.

²Faculty of Engineering, University of Gonabad, Gonabad, Iran

چکیده

Youth unemployment in Iran is a long-standing and complex issue. It results from the interaction of structural barriers, behavioral patterns, and economic shocks, which reinforce each other over time. This study employs a qualitative system dynamics (SD) model to examine how these mechanisms sustain high unemployment among young people. The model is presented through a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). It draws on evidence from research, policy reports, and theory to map key feedback loops in the labor market. The analysis identifies several reinforcing loops. These include educational inflation, skill mismatch, informal employment traps, and economic contraction due to sanctions. Each loop intensifies unemployment. In contrast, balancing loops, such as public-sector hiring and vocational training, offer only short-term relief. These feedbacks explain why isolated policies often fail to produce lasting change. The findings highlight key leverage points. These include better alignment between education and employment, stronger labor-demand policies, and improved labor-market information systems. While qualitative, the model offers a solid foundation for future simulations and for designing feedback-aware strategies to reduce youth unemployment in Iran and similar contexts.

کلیدواژه‌ها

Youth Unemployment؛ System Dynamics؛ Causal Loop Diagram؛ Labor Market Policy؛ Skill Mismatch