مدل‌سازی پویایی سیستم اثرات بلندمدت مکانیزاسیون کشاورزی بر سطح زیر کشت و عملکرد گندم

ماشین های کشاورزی

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده، انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 20 آبان 1404   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی انگلیسی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jam.2025.95519.1432

نویسندگان

آتنا کشوری¹؛ افشین مرزبان^{* 1}؛ محمدامین آسودار¹؛ عباس عبدشاهی²؛ میر سامان پیشوایی³

¹گروه مهندسی ماشین‌های کشاورزی و مکانیزاسیون، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستائی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران

²گروه مهندسی اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی و عمران روستائی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران

³گروه مهندسی سیستم‌های هوشمند، دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

با تشدید فشارهای ناشی از محدودیت منابع، تغییرات اقلیمی و کمبود نیروی کار روستایی، مکانیزاسیون کشاورزی به اهرمی استراتژیک برای ارتقای بهره‌وری تبدیل شده است. این مطالعه یک مدل پویایی سیستم را برای بررسی اثرات بلندمدت مکانیزاسیون بر سطح زیرکشت و عملکرد گندم در نظام‌های خرده‌مالکی توسعه داد. پژوهش با ترسیم نمودار حلقه علی (CLD) برای مفهوم‌سازی ساختارهای بازخورد کلیدی آغاز شد. سپس یک مدل شبیه‌سازی موجودی و جریان، با استفاده از داده‌های استان خوزستان (2022-2011) تدوین و اعتبارسنجی شد. نتایج، همخوانی قوی بین روندهای شبیه‌سازی شده و مشاهداتی را در شاخص‌های اصلی نشان داد. از مدل برای شبیه‌سازی سناریوهای سیاستی مختلف شامل نوسازی ناوگان ماشین‌ها، دسترسی به آب و تغییرپذیری بارندگی استفاده شد. افزایش 30 درصدی نرخ جایگزینی ماشین‌آلات منجر به افزایش 7 درصدی عملکرد و 1 درصدی سطح زیرکشت نسبت به پایه شد. هنگامی که بهبود مکانیزاسیون با دسترسی بهتر آب ترکیب شد، اثر نهایی آن بر استفاده از زمین کاهش یافت که نشان‌دهنده تمایل کشاورزان به کشت محصولات باارزش در شرایط هیدرولوژیک مطلوب است. در مقابل، در شرایط کم‌آبی، کشت گندم به‌دلیل سازگاری و کارایی ناشی از مکانیزاسیون، گسترش یافت. این یافته‌ها بر اهمیت توجه به تعامل آب و مکانیزاسیون در طراحی سیاست‌ها، به‌ویژه در مناطق خشک تأکید می‌کنند. مدل ارائه‌شده، ابزار انعطاف‌پذیر و مبتنی بر تجربه برای پشتیبانی از تصمیم‌گیری در راستای بهبود تاب‌آوری اقلیمی و استفاده بهینه از منابع فراهم می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

پویایی سیستم؛ سناریوسازی؛ گندم؛ مدیریت منابع آب؛ مکانیزاسیون کشاورزی

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