بررسی تاثیر بدهی های خارجی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای درحال توسعه

اقتصاد و توسعه منطقه ای

مقاله 6، دوره 22، شماره 10، اسفند 1394، صفحه 191-224   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/erd.v22i10.44740

نویسندگان

غلامرضا زمانیان¹؛ جواد هراتی²؛ حجت تقی زاده^{* 3}

¹دانشگاه سیستان وبلوچستان

²دانشگاه بجنورد

³دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

چکیده

یکی از چالش های اساسی پیش روی اغلب کشورهای درحال توسعه شیوه های تامین مالی کسری بودجه و اثرات آن بر رشد اقتصادی این کشوها می باشد. انتخاب ابزارهای تامین مالی مخصوصا بدهی ها برای توسعه سریع اقتصادی و آگاهی از تاثیر این سیاست ها بر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی از اهمیت به سزایی برخوردار است. نحوه تامین مالی کسری بودجه، کلید اصلی اصلاحات بخش مالی است. هدف از این مطالعه برآورد کمی اثرات بدهی های خارجی و کسری بودجه و صادرات بر رشد اقتصادی ایران و مجموعه ای از کشورهای در حال توسعه می باشد. برای این منظور از داده های پانلی دوره ی 2013-2003 و روش تخمین گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته (GMM) استفاده شده است. نتایج بیانگر آن است که، بدهی های خارجی بلندمدت و کسری بودجه دارای اثر منفی معنی دار بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای در حال توسعه است. اما صادرات و بدهی های خارجی کوتاه مدت دارای تاثیر مثبتی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای درحال توسعه دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

بدهی های خارجی؛ کسری بودجه؛ صادرات؛ رشد اقتصادی؛ داده های پانل؛ کشورهای در حال توسعه

مراجع

Abrishami H., Mehrara, M. & Mohseni, R. (2006). The effect of trade liberalization on export and import growth, Journal of Business Research, No. 40, pp. 95-126. (In persian)

Afshari, Z., (2001). macroeconomic policies and foreign debt in developing countries and Iran, Al Zahra University Press (In persian)

Ansari. A., (1996). external debt and economic growth in developing countries, Master's thesis. Allameh Tabatabai University (In persian)

Arellano, M., & Bond, S., (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. Review of Economic Studies 58: 277–297.

Arellano, M., & Bover, O, (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics 68: 29–51.

Bacha, Edmar L., (1990). A Three-Gap Model of Foreign Transfers and the GDP Growth Rate in Developing Countries, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 32, 1990, pp.279-296

Baltagi, B. H., (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third Edition, New York: John Wiley and Sons.

Baltagi, Badi H., (1995). Editor's Introduction Panel Data, Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1). pages 1-4, July.

Barro, R.. (1974). Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?, Journal of Political Economy, 86(6). pp.1095-1117.

Bowles, P., (1987). Foreign aid and domestic savings in less developed countries: Some tests for causality, World Development, 15, pp789-796.

Chenery, H. B. & Bruno, M., (1962). Development alternatives in an open economy: The case of Israel, Economic Journal 72, 79-103.

Choi, I., (2001). Unit Root Tests for Panel Data, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, p. 249–272.

Coleman , D. & Nixon, F., (1986). Economics of change in Less Developed Countries, 3rd ed, New York and London, Harvester Wheatsheaf.

Dacy, D.C., (1975). Foreign Aid, Government Consumption, Saving and Growth in Less-Developed Countries, The Economic Journal, 85, pp548-561.

Delavari, M. & Basir, S. (2011). The effect of economic instability and budget deficit (surplus) of the on economic growth, Journal of Political and Economic Information, No. 286. (In persian)

Doğana, I., Bilgilib, F., (2014). The non-linear impact of high and growing government external debt on economic growth: A Markov Regime-switching approach, Economic Modelling, Volume 39, April 2014, Pages 213–220

Dowling, J.M., & Hiemenz, U., (1982). Aid, Savings and Growth in the Asian. Region, Asian Development Bank Economic Office Report Series No. 3.

Economic Research and Policy Department, (2014/15). Key Economic Indicators, Public Relations Department, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, No. 79

Enders W., (2004). Applied Econometric Time Series, New York: Wiley Press.

Engle, R. & Granger, C., (1987). Cointegration and Error-Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing, Econometrica 55 (March). pp. 251-276

Farahbakhsh, N. & Frzynvsh, A. (2009). The effect of deficit on the current account deficit and economic growth, Journal of Economic Research, No. 88. (In persian)

Feder, G. (1983). On Exports and Economic Growth. Journal of Development Economics, 12: 59-73.

Firouzi, S., (2011). External debt and economic growth in developing countries (with an emphasis on Iran). master's thesis, Allame Mohaddes Nouri University. (In persian)

Fry, Maxwell J., (1984). Domestic Resource Mobilization through Financial Development: Appendixes, ADB, Economics Office, February.

Gharabaghi, M. (1993) Economic growth and development. Nashre ney press. Tehran. (In persian)

Griffin, K., (1970). Foreign Capital, Domestic Savings and Economics Development. Bulletin of the Oxford University Institute of Economics and Statistics 32 (2):99-112.

Griffin, K.B., & Enos, J.L.,(1970). Foreign assistance: Objectives andconsequences, Economic Development and Cultural Change 18, 313-327.

Grossman, G. M. & Helpman, E.. (1991). Quality Ladders and Product Cycles. Quarterlv Journal of Economics, 106 (forthcoming).

Gujarati, N., (2002). Basic Econometrics, 4th ed. New York: University of New York Press.

Hameed, A., Ashraf, H., & Chaudhary, M. A. (2008). External debt and its impact on economic and business growth in Pakistan. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 20, 132-140.

Helpman, E. & Krugman, P.. (1986). Foreign Trade and Market Structure. Cambridge: MIT Press.

Hepp, R., (2005). Can Debt Relief Buy Growth?‟ Mimeo. University of California, Santa Cruz.

Im, K.S., Pesaran M. H. & Shin, Y., (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels, Journal of Econometrics 115(1): 53–74.

Im, K-S., Pesaran M.H & Shin Y., (1997). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels, WP 9526, DAE, University of Cambridge. Revised June 1997.

Jafari Samimi, A., Alizadeh, M. & Azizi, KH., (2007). The long-run relationship between budget deficit and macroeconomic performance in Iran: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, Journal of Economic Studies, No. 4, pp. 25-46. (In persian)

Jayaraman, T.K. & Lau, Evan, (2009). Does external debt lead to economic growth in Pacific island countries,Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2). pages 272-288.

Kaji, F., (2007). Methods of Dynamic Panel GMM in models, MSc thesis, Department of Statistics, University of Isfahan. (In persian)

Kao, C. & Min-Hsien Ch., (2000). On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data, Advances in Econometrics 15: 179–222.

Keho, Y., (2010). Budget Deficits and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence and Policy Implications for WEAMU Countries, European Journal of Economics, Issue 18.

Krugman, P., (1988). Financing Versus Forgiving a Debt Overhang. Journal of Development Economics 29 (November): 253-268.

Levin, A., Chien, F.L. & Chia, Sh. J. Ch., (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties, Journal of Econometrics 108(1): 1–24.

Levy, V., (1988). Aid and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: The recent experience,European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9). pages 1777-1795, November

lyoha, M.A., (1999). External debt and economic growth in sub-Saharan African countries: An econometric study. AERC Research Paper 90, African Economic Research Consortium, Nairobi.

Maddala, G. S. & Wu, Sh., (1999). A Comparative Study of Unit Roots with Panel Data and A New Simple Test, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 61(4): 631–651.

Makki, S. & A. Somwaru. (2004). Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Trade on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries. AJAE, 86: 795-801.

Mankiw, G.. (2004). Macroeconomics, translated by Baradaran Shorakay, H. R. and Parsayyan, A., Allameh Tabatabai University Press, second edition. (In persian)

Mosley, P., Hudson, J & Horrell, S., (1987). Aid, the Public Sector and the Market in Less Developed Countries, Economic Journal 97(387): 616–41.

Mouliyae, M & Golkhndan, A., (2014). the effects of foreign debt on economic growth, Economic Journal, Volume 14, Issue 2, Pages 83-108. (In persian)

Nawaz, M., Qureshi, M., Awan, N. W., (2012). Does External Debt Causes Economic Growth; A Case Study of Pakistan, The Romanian Economic Journal, No. 43.

Newlyn, W. T., (1973). The effects of aid and other resource transfers on savings and growth in less developed countries: A comment, EJ, vol. 83.

Ogunmuyiwa, M.S., (2011). Does External Debt Promote Economic Growth in Nigeria?, Current Research Journal of Economic Theory, 3(1).

Papanek, Gustav F., (1973). Aid, Foreign Private Investment, Savings andGrowth in Less Developed Countries, Journal of Political Economy 81:120-130.

Pedroni P., (1995). Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests, with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis, Indiana University Working Papers in Economics 1995; No. 95-013.

Pedroni, P., (2004). Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to PPP Hypothesis: New Results, Econometric Theory 20(3): 597–627.

Pham, T. & Nguyen, D., (2010). ''Does exchange rate policy matter for economic growth? Vietnam evidence from a co-integration approach '', Economics Bulletin, Vol. 30 no.1 pp. 169-181.

Phillips, P.C.B. & Perron, P., (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika 75/2, 335 - 346.

Presbitero, A, (2005). The Debt-Growth Nexus: a Dynamic Panel Data Estimation, Working papers 243, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I). Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

Quli Begloo,M., (1999). Effect of financing government expenditure on major macroeconomic variables in Iran (1340-1375). master's thesis. Shiraz University. (In persian)

Ramamurthi, R., (1992). Exports and growth: Additional evidence. Journal of Development Studies, 28(4). 730-4.

Ramzana, M., Ahmadb, E., (2014). External debt growth nexus: Role of macroeconomic policies, Economic Modelling, Volume 38, Pages 204–210

Reppas, P.A & chirstopoulos, D.K., (2005). The export-output growth nexus: Evidence from African and Asian countries. Journal of Policy Modeling, v(27): 929-940.

Sachs, J., (1989). The Debt Overhang of Developing Countries. in Debt Stabilization and Development, edited by Guillermo A. Calvo, Ronald Findlay, Pentti Kouri, and Jorge Braga de Macedo. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.

Safdari, M. & Mehrizi, M. A., (2011). External Debt and Economic Growth in Iran, Journal of Economic and International Finance, 3(5).

Safia, Sh., (2008). Does External Debt Affect Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, pp. 1450-2887.

Schclarek, A., (2004). Debt and Economic Growth in Developing and Industrial Countries, Working Papers 2005:34, Lund University, Department of Economics.

Singh, Ram D., (1985). State Intervention, Foreign Economic Aid, Savings and Growth in. LDCs: Some Recent Evidence, Kyklos, 38:216-32.

Stoneman, C., (1975). Foreign Capital and Economic Growth, World Development 3: 11-26.

Thranchyan. A., (1997). the impact of external debt on economic growth in developing countries, MS Thesis, University of Mazandaran(In persian)

Voivodas, Constantin S., (1974). Exports, Foreign Capital Inflow, and South Korean Growth, Economic Growth and Cultural Change 22: 480-484.

Were, M. (2001). The Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Kenya, Discussion Paper 2001/116, United Nations University/World Institute for Development Economics Research.

World Bank, (2014). World Bank World Tables 2014, Washington, DC: World Bank.

World Bank Group. 2015. International Debt Statistics 2015. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Yavari, K., Rezagholizadeh, M., Aghaei, M., Mostafavi, S. M. H., (2010). the impact of tourism spending and economic growth of member countries of the Islamic Conference Organization, Journal of Economic Research, No (89) 91, pp219 -242. (In persian)

Zeinalzadeh, R., (1998). Effects of foreign finance on economic growth (the Iran). Master's thesis, Ferdowsi Mashhad University, (In persian)

)