The Determinants of Migration from Developed and Developing Countries to the U.S.

علوم اجتماعی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

Article 7, Volume 12, Issue 1 - Serial Number 25, September 2015, Pages 167-196   

Document Type: Scientific-Research

DOI: 10.22067/jss.v12i1.18743

Authors

Elahe Jantan^{* 1}; Mohammad Ali Falahi¹; Ahmad Seifi²

¹Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

²Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

Abstract

Extended Abstract


1- Introduction
Today, one of the most important social subjects, which has an extensive economic and cultural impact on different countries, is migration and it, as a population phenomenon, is noticed by human and social sciences. The U.S. Census Bureau has announced that this country in 2012 was the greatest attractor of immigrants from developing and developed countries in the world and, at that time, 40 million immigrants (13 percent of its population) lived in this country. In this study, 15 developed countries among OECD and 14 developed countries which have the highest number of immigrants to the USA (including Iran) are selected. Based on these two groups, two panel data models are estimated and analyzed.

2-Theoretical Framework
There are different theories for explaining the causes of migration based on which various models can be designed. In the present study, the push-pull theory is applied to investigate the factors which have impacts on migration in both the origin and destination countries. This theory is based on 5 propositions: distance, process of stage migration, differences in people's propensities to migration in rural and urban areas, progress of technology, and modes of transportation and rationality. The composition of economic factors in the destination as pull factors such as higher wages, employment, better welfare systems and push factors in the origin such as low wages, slow economic growth or economic recession and poverty well explain the migration process.

3- Methodology
According to the push-pull model, two groups of variables including economic and social characteristics related to push factors in the origin and pull factors in the destination (USA) are considered. These variables are per capita GDP of the U.S. to per capita GDP of the origin, technology gap between the origin and the U.S., labor supply in the origin, geographical distance between the origin and the U.S., physical investment rate in the origin, raw birth rate in the origin, human capital in the origin, total legal migration from the origin to the U.S. during the past 2 years, total population of the origin, and the inside flow of direct investment in the origin. The collected data are related to 15 developed (OECD) and 14 developing countries. These countries have the highest number of immigrants to the U.S. from 1991to 2008. The empirical model is based on panel data regression.

4- Results
The results show that distance has a significant and negative effect related to both group of the countries. Labor supply is not significant for the developed countries but it has shown positive and significant effect for the developing countries. Both the developed and developing countries respond to per capita GDP differences. Technology gap decreases the amount of migration from the developed countries but the developing countries respond positively. Both the developed and developing countries respond to investment rate negatively. Population and foreign direct investment have shown positive and significant effects in both groups of the countries, but have shown relatively small effect on migration. Birth rate in either group of the countries has a positive and significant effect. Both the developed and developing countries respond to human capital positively, meanwhile this factor has stronger effect in the developing countries. At last, the migrants who had settled in the U.S. during the past two years, have positive and significant effect on migration from the developed and developing countries.

5- Conclusion
The most important factors in migrating to developed countries such as the U.S. are: previous migration, having family relationships in the destination and the higher level of per capita GDP in the U.S. than the origin place. But, for developing countries, the most important factors include increasing people's education or consciousness and also their dissatisfaction with the scientific and research conditions in order to continue education and conduct research. Then, the financial cost of transportation is an important factor for migration from the origin to the destination. The investment rate and technology gap which can indicate the people's income level are the other important factors for migration.

Keywords

Migration; Developed countries; developing countries; Panel Data

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