Zoning of Cities Level of Vulnerability toEarthquake Danger (Case Study: Tabriz

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

Article 2, Volume 2, Issue 1 - Serial Number 5, January 2013, Pages 21-36   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/geo.v2i1.15617

Authors

Abolfazl Ghanbari^* ; Mohamad Ali Salaki Maleki; Masomeh Ghasemi

University Of Tabriz

Abstract

Introduction
One of the important problems that most of the metropolitans encounter with is natural disasters. Earthquake is a main natural disaster. Annually 27 sever earthquakes are happened by nineteen thousands killed and twenty six homeless. In recent report of United Nations planning office in 2003, Iran has had the first position in number of earthquakes with severity higher than 5.5 Richter annually and resulted damages and number of killed people. According to the researches of the ministry of dwelling and urban building in national physical plan, fifty percent of the urban residents live in areas with high risks of earthquake. Tabriz is one of the metropolitans of Iran located on region with high probability of earthquake. Adjacency of Tabriz fault and population involving 1378935 individuals and significant industrial cultural and historical capitals introduce Tabriz as a risky zone. So Tabriz fault is the hazardous fault in Iran. Such conditions predict occurrence of human disaster in Tabriz in future. Tabriz earthquake zoning plan conducted by Tehran Padir Company has predicted four hundred twenty six thousands killed in maximum level. According to such earthquake potential, the main goal of this research is identification and zoning of vulnerability in Tabriz in earthquake.
Study Area
The study area involved Tabriz district. Tabriz is located in North West of Iran and it is Center of east Azerbaijan. This city is the biggest metropolitan of North West by area of 25231 hectare in geographical situation of 46,11,46,23 east longitude and 38, 1,38,9 north latitude by average length of 1340 meter in Tabriz plain. The geographical situation, settlement of city in alleys intersects and mild slopes and economic and human factors and especially political and cultural boundaries, domestic and transit communication roads and neighbourhood of Russia, Turkey and Iraq have been led to outstanding and strategic situation of Tabriz. The mentioned factors have created cross road position in this city. The population of the city was estimated 1378935 in 2006 according to census and dwelling statistics.
Material and Methods
This research is applied and development and it is descriptive and analytical research. The method is based on analysis and envelopment of information layers in ArcGIS and combination of scale weighting models like AHP and envelopment indicator. At first, by using opinions of experts concerning to earthquake issues like geomorphology, geology, earthquake engineering, urban planning and designing and also previous researches the effective criteria in city vulnerability against earthquake were obtained. According to the comprehensive and systemic approach of this research relative to earthquake, the natural and human made criteria were studied. Finally 15 criteria were selected and each criterion was divided into related criterion based on the analyses. In next step by using data and map provided by road and urban building organisation and municipality and also field study, information layers were prepared in software ARC GIS 9.3 based on the selected criteria. After data analysis they were converted into appropriate RASTER format. Finally by using combination of the layers based on the mentioned models, the final map indicating Tabriz vulnerable zones against earthquake was prepared.
Results and Discussion
In this research the city was divided into five zones of highest vulnerability, high vulnerability, middle vulnerability, low vulnerability and very low vulnerability. The results of AHP show that most of the north areas except limited areas in west and east with very low population density are in high risk zone. The north marginal quarters and new constructed towns adjacent to fault like Baghmisheh, Roshdiyeh and etc are in risky zone. By distance from north fault the vulnerability level is reduced. Middle parts and some parts of south west and north east are in high risk zone. At the end of south west and west and east part of city the vulnerability is average and by moving toward south east the level of vulnerability is reduced and these parts are in low and very low vulnerability zone.
The results of Overlay Index indicator model are similar to AHP by this difference that frequency of very high vulnerability is less that AHP and most part of the city is located in middle vulnerability zone and most of the city areas are in middle zone. In this model marginal quarters are located in high vulnerable zone and central, economical and historical centers are in high vulnerability zones.
Conclusion
In a general conclusion and comparison of two models of AHP and Overlay Index, it can be said that Tabriz is not in optimal conditions according to vulnerability against earthquake. Based on statistics of 2006, more than half of Tabriz population lives in very high and high vulnerable zones. In addition most of important land uses and establishments like airport, administrative, political canters, hospitals and historical and cultural monuments are in these zones. It can be referred to development of towns constructed on fault and surrounding areas

Keywords

Keywords: Earthquake; zoning; Vulnerability; AHP; OI

References

آژانس همکاری‌‌های بین‌‌المللی ژاپن؛ 1378. طرح ریز‌ پهنه بندی لرزه‌ای تهران بزرگ. گزارش نهایی. صص 1-390

حبیبی، کیومرث و همکاران؛ 1378. تعیین عوامل سازه ای/ساختمانی مؤثر در بافت کهن شهری زنجان با استفاده از FUZZYLOGIC & GIS. نشریه هنرهای زیبا. شماره 33. صص 27-36.

حقیقی، همایون؛ 1348. امواج زلزله. نشریه دانشکده فنی دانشگاه تهران. دوره 106. صص 84-106.

خوب آیند، سعید؛ 1379. روش‌های تأمین مسکن گروه‌های کم درآمد در ایران (نمونه موردی: تبریز). رساله کارشناسی ارشد. دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی. گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری. دانشگاه تبریز.

روستائی، شهرام؛1390. پهنه بندی خطر گسل برای کاربری‌های مختلف اراضی شهری. جغرافیا و توسعه. شماره 21. صص 27-41.

روزنامه کیهان؛ 1391. دوره 11. شماره 20260.

زیاری، کرامت الله؛ 1378. اصول و روش‌های برنامه ریزی منطقه‌ای. چاپ پنجم. یزد: انتشارات دانشگاه یزد.

فرجی، امین و همکاران؛ 1389. زلزله و مدیریت بحران شهری (نمونه موردی شهر بابل). جغرافیا. دوره جدید. سال هشتم. شماره 25. صص 143-164.

فرید، یدالله؛ 1371. کاربرد جغرافیا در روش تحقیق شهر و روستا. تبریز: انتشارات دانشگاه تبریز.

قنواتی، عزت الله و همکاران؛ 1388. توانمندسازی مدیریت بحران شهری در جهت کاهش بلایای طبیعی (نمونه موردی: خرم آباد). فصلنامه جغرافیای طبیعی. سال اول. شماره 4. صص 15-24.

کرمی، محمدرضا؛ 1382. مکان‌یابی هنرستان‌های فنی و حرفه‌ای با استفاده از سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی (نمونه موردی: تبریز). رساله کارشناسی ارشد. دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی. رشته جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری. دانشگاه تبریز.

محمودزاده، حسن؛ 1385. ارزیابی و پهنه بندی درجه تناسب توسعه فیزیکی شهر تبریز با استفاده از GIS. مجموعه مقالات همایش ژئوماتیک 85. صص 1-9.

زارع، مهدی؛ 1380. خطر زمین لرزه و ساخت و ساز در حریم گسل شمال تبریز و حریم گسلش گسل‌های زمین لرزه‌ای ایران. پژوهشگاه مؤسسه بین‌المللی زلزله شناسی و مهندسی زلزله ایران. سال چهارم. شماره دوم و سوم. صص 46-57.

مهندسین مشاور تهران پادیر؛ 1389. طرح ریز پهنه بندی خطر زمین لرزه‌ای شهر تبریز. جلد پنجم شهرسازی. صص 1-98.

مهندسین مشاور نقش محیط؛ 1391. طرح جامع شهر تبریز. گزارش وضع موجود. صص 1-397

میثمی، علی؛ 1353. زلزله در ایران. نشریه دانشکده فنی دانشگاه تهران. دوره 29. صص 158-164.

نتایج تفضیلی سرشماری عمومی نفوس و مسکن سال 1385.

نوروزی ، علی اصغر و همکاران؛ 1359. ضرایب زلزله خیزی و حوزه‌های شدت نسبی زلزله ایران، نشریه دانشکده فنی دانشگاه تهران. شماره 42. صص 93-105 .

ولیزاده کامران، خلیل؛ 1380. پهنه بندی خطر زلزله در شهرستان تبریز با استفاده از GIS & RS. نشریه فضای جغرافیایی. شماره 4.

Alecxander, D.,1999. Earthquakes and Volcanism, Applied Geography, PP: 66-82.

Cuny.F. C.,1983. Disasters & development, Oxford University Press.

FOURNIER DALE, E., 1982. An Approach to Earthquake Risk, Management, Engineering Structures,Volume 4, issue 3, PP:147-152.

Kreimer, A; Arnold, A and Carlin, A., 2003. Building Safer Cities, The Future of Disaster Risk, Disaster Risk Management Series, Vol. 3, The World Bank, PP:1-299.

Lantada Nieves, Pujades Luis, Barbat, Alex., 2008. Vulnerability Index and Capacity Spectrum Based Method for Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation, Journal of Nathazards, DOI 10. 007/s11069-007-9212-4.

UNDP ., 2004. Reducing Disaster Risk, A Challenge for Development. A Global Report, PP: 1-146.

Alecxander, D , (1999), Earthquakes and Volcanism, Applied Geography, PP: 66-82.

Cuny.F. C (1983), Disasters & development, Oxford University Press.

Faraji, Amin et al (1389), Earthquake and Urban risk Management (Case Babol) Geography, New Era, Year eighth, No. 25, pp. 143-164.

Farid, Yadu'llah (1371), Applications of geography in methodology of urban and rural, Tabriz: Tabriz University.

FOURNIER DALE, E (1982), An Approach to Earthquake Risk, Management, Engineering Structures,Volume 4, issue 3, PP:147-152.

Ghanavati, Ezzatollah et al (1388), enabling city risk management to reduce disaster (Case Study: Khorram Abad), Journal of Physical Geography First Year, No. 4, pp. 15-24.

Habibi, Qumars et al (1378), The determining factors the structure / building in the context of the ancient city of Zanjan FUZZYLOGIC & GIS, Fine Art Magazine, No. 33, pp. 27-36.

Haghighi, Humayun (1348), seismic waves, Journal of Faculty of Engineering, Tehran University, Vol 106, pp 84-106.

Japan International Cooperation Agency (1378), Seismic micro-zoning plan of Tehran, Final Report, pp. 1-390.

Karami, Mohammad Reza (1382), The locational of vocational and technical schools by using of GIS (Case Tabriz), Master's thesis, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Geography and Urban Planning, University of Tabriz.

Kayhan newspaper (1391), Volume 11, Issue 20260.

Khobayand, S. (1379), The methods of providing housing for low-income groups in Iran (Case Study: Tabriz), MSc thesis, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Tabriz.

Kreimer, A; Arnold, A and Carlin, A (2003), Building Safer Cities, The Future of Disaster Risk, Disaster Risk Management Series, Vol. 3, The World Bank, PP:1-299.

Lantada Nieves, Pujades Luis, Barbat, Alex (2008), Vulnerability Index and Capacity Spectrum Based Method for Urban Seismic Risk Evaluation, Journal of Nathazards, DOI 10. 007/s11069-007-9212-4.

Mahmoodzadeh, H. (1385), An assessment and zoning degree of appropriate and physical development Tabriz by using of GIS, Articles Collections in Geomatics 85, pp. 1-9.

Meysami, A. (1353), Earthquake in Iran, Tehran University Faculty of Engineering Journal, Volume 29, pp. 158-164.

Nagsh Mohit Consulting Engineers (1391), Tabriz comprehensive plan, existing status report, pp. 1-397.

Norouzi, AA et al (1359), The seismicity coefficients and relative intensity of earthquake in Iran, Journal of Faculty of Engineering, Tehran University, No. 42, pp. 93-105.

Padir Tehran Consulting Engineers (1389), Seismic hazard zoning plan of Tabriz, Urban Volume V, pp. 1-98.

Rostaei, Shahram (1390), Fault hazard zoning of land for urban land uses, Geography and Development, No. 21, pp. 27-41.

The results of detail Census Population and Housing in 1385.

UNDP (2004), Reducing Disaster Risk, A Challenge for Development. A Global Report, PP: 1-146.

Valizadeh K., Khalil (1380), The zoning of earthquake risk in the city of Tabriz by using of GIS & RS, Journal of geographical space, number 4.

Zare, M. (1380), The earthquake hazard and construction in the boundary the fault zone north and of Tabriz and faulting earthquake faults, the research Institute International Institute of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering of Iran, fourth, second and third numbers, pp. 46-57.

Ziyari, Karamat Ullah (1378), Principles and Methods of Regional Planning, Fifth Edition, Yazd Yazd: University Press