Climate Change Assessment in Khorasan-e Razavi Province from 2010 to 2039 Using Statistical Downscaling of GCM Output

جغرافیاوتوسعه ناحیه ای

Article 1, Volume 8, Issue 2 - Serial Number 15, August 2010   

Document Type: scientific-research article

DOI: 10.22067/geography.v8i15.9506

Authors

Iman Babaeian^* ; Zahra Najafi

Abstract

Because of low Spatial resolution and simplifications in meteorological processes in Global Circulation Models, they cannot sufficiently simulate the weather, comparing to the regional models; then, spatial and temporal downscaling of the GCM outputs are needed for decreasing errors of the Global Circulation Models. There are two methods of downscaling: statistical and dynamic. Weather Generator technique is one of popular methods of statistical downscaling. In this study, meteorological parameters of ECHO-G General Circulation Models including maximum and minimum temperature, radiation and precipitation were downscaled by a weather Generator model of LARS-WG in the period of 2010-2039. Results show the mean of precipitation will decrease by 9.5 percent; mean temperature will be decreased by 1.5-3.3 degrees in the period under study (2010-2039). Thresholds of heavy and extreme rainfalls will increase by 45 and 60 percent respectively. It is calculated that precipitations of cold season will increase by 13 percent with a shift toward the end of cold season. Finally, it was found that summer rainfall increases by the amount of 50 percent.

Key words: Climate change; Climate change assessment; Khorasan-Razavi; Downscaling.