Predicting Land Use Changes Using CLUE_S Software Package: The Case of Zanjan

جغرافیاوتوسعه ناحیه ای

Article 3, Volume 8, Issue 2 - Serial Number 15, August 2010   

Document Type: scientific-research article

DOI: 10.22067/geography.v8i15.9508

Authors

Akbar Asghari Zamani^* ; Saeed Maleki; Ali Movahhed

Abstract

The present paper aims to examine one of the technically-based approaches in the field of urban planning and urban management which started about two decades ago, and has been tested in Iran over the past decade with some scientific and executive prudence. In this paper, the CLUE_S model, one of the models for land use changes process simulation, is used to examine its efficiency in urbanization of Iranian cities and simulating their structure. Since the researchers had suitable data about Zanjan, this city was used as an appropriate case. For geo-statistical analysis, are SPSS, ArcGIS and CLUE_S are used. The results show that if there are sufficient and suitable databases for several time series, it is possible to use the new technologies in simulation and prediction of future events of urban planning and management. In this study, three scenarios are proposed for the future of the Zanjan growth, which, among the rate of 4.8% from 1956 to 2006 Seems to be rather logical and acceptable and shows the physical growth of Zanjan in 2021.

Key words: GIS; CLUE_S; Geo-statistical analysis; Land use; Spatial-physical Growth; Zanjan.