Analysis and Identification of the Public and Private Market Share of Insurance Chargeable and Payable Premiums and Forecasting of this Financial Market

اقتصاد پولی مالی

Article 8, Volume 25, Issue 16, October 2018, Pages 275-295   

Document Type: پژوهشی

DOI: 10.22067/pm.v25i15.47869

Author

hamidreza izadi izadi^*

Chabahar Maritime University

Abstract

By delivering service to establishing reasonable relationships with other industrial, manufactural, agricultural and service sectors through collecting small insurance premiums from insureds and indemnifying them timely. the insurance industry as a non-banking financial institution can raise public and private capitals, and direct and invest on such financial resources efficiently, secure production by entrepreneurs, business owners, and professionals, reduce imports from and dependence upon global markets, and hence lead to economic development. Therefore, identification of the public and private shares of this financial market can have a substantial effect on saving financial resources. Moreover, forecasting of this financial market in respect to insurance premiums chargeable and payable, controlling, and directing such financial resources can help different economic sectors make investments and implement their monetary and financial policies in order to reach their long term economic goals. Therefore, this study has attempted to analyze in addition, forecast insurance market.
With regard to the analysis and identification of the public and private market share of insurance, also the forecasting of this financial market, policy maker can conduct the monetary and financial policies in order to achieve their long-term economic goals. In fact the survey of the chargeable and payable premiums of insurance and then controlling and directing it financial resources, can help different economics sectors.
Introduction
Insurance market, which is an important part of financial markets in every country, plays an important role in policy making and applying macro-economic policies. Controlling availability of this financial market and conducting liquidity of insurance market towards different parts of national economics, this market leads to the investigation and transmission of investment to economic institutions and thereby providing future perspectives of economic firms. Given the fact that during a short period of time, shock and the intensity of the movement of liquidity and capital of both the private sector and people of society in transferring from economic parts to non-economic ones are high, the recognition and introduction of information, structure and prediction of short-term market for determining appropriate policies is vital.
Methodology
In this work, having looked at monthly statistics data, the researchers tried to investigate factors affecting the market. It is done by using ARDL and ARMA models. In addition, their relationship will be described and estimated based on the ARDL method. On the other hand, since the prediction of financial market is efficient and stable, we can provide a framework for achieving economic growth and development. Thus, this paper will examine the structural stability of insurance market and forecast its market based on auto regression moving average process. Finally, based on these results, applicable policies will be suggested.
Results and Discussion
The primary duty of this market is providing liquidity for the government, the private, and industry sectors in the form of collecting stagnant savings and the liquidity of private sector in order to finance the long-term investment projects.
Forecasting of this financial market in respect to insurance premiums chargeable and payable and controlling and directing such financial resources can help different economic sectors make investments and implement their monetary and financial policies in order to reach their long-term economic goals.
In other words, the analysis and identification of the public and private market share of insurance premiums chargeable and payable and forecasting them play a dual function in the structure of a free economy. On the one hand, it helps to increase the capital of the government and the private sector, and on the other hand, it helps the secondary market to meet the potential and actual investors. Investigation, controlling and conducting the market can lead to the financial resources of the capital market and investment for development and growth and the policies are planned based on the goals of macroeconomic. Economists believe one of the reasons for the lack of the development of developing countries is the low level of investment. In this regard, the insurance market is the main and important center to attract these savings. Accordingly, we should identify its influential factors in the market, and thus use appropriate policies for the progression and growth of the market.
Achieving the optimal growth and development of economy without mobilization of financial resources in long term is impossible. In this regard, the position and the role of financial market are of high importance.
The insurance market, which is the market of demand and supply of financial resources, can play a vital role when the process of supply and demand of its financial sources is the optimal allocations. The main prerequisite for the optimal allocations of resources in the capital market is the efficiency in their performance.
Conclusions and Suggestions
Thus, policy makers should pay attention to the public and private market share of insurance premiums chargeable and payable, its flourishing growth and to government policies, and control the market, prevent the uncontrolled growth of liquidity, eliminate the cumbersome investment regulations and incentives tax, and finally draw a plan for implementation of economic policies.
In this regard, it is essential that the country's economic managers identify macro-economic variables affecting the market, especially government-controlled variables and how their influence can lead to appropriate policies for the stimulation of the market and growth of economy.

Keywords

Public and Private Market Share of Insurance; Premium Chargeable and Payable; forecasting

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