Presenting Probable Scenarios in the Formation of Electronic City of Mashhad in 1404

جغرافیاوتوسعه ناحیه ای

Article 7, Volume 17, Issue 1 - Serial Number 32, September 2019, Pages 193-222   

Document Type: scientific-research article

DOI: 10.22067/geography.v17i2.73997

Authors

Omid Ali Kharazmi^* ; Foruzan Taheri

Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

Abstract

Extended Abstract

Introduction

The formation of electronic city depends on technology development. The invention of telegraph paves the way for developing actual communications and reduces time and distances. Requirements to build related infrastructures for an electronic city in developing countries and the existence of uncertainty in the environment create a barrier for forecasting future; therefore applying the traditional planning method cannot respond to the needs of society anymore. Thus, it was necessary to use future study methods such as a scenario planning in order to forecast the future. Planning includes an inclination of human to the future in order to solve related problems and create an ability to see the future clearly. One of the approaches of future study is scenario planning. Scenarios do not claim to forecast the exact future but they use the descriptive technique to anticipate events.

Review of Literature

Driving forces behind cities and the ever increasing role of the cities in international economic context, need for transferring information, marketing and mobility leads to the commodity and the service exchange between cities. Based on this, IT is a new characteristics of planning and management of cities. The emergence of an electronic city makes urban institutions in the world aware of the importance of increasing the efficiency and accessibility of the service delivery which focuses on the opportunities provided with ICT in order to increase the investment. Researchers presented different factors which have an impact on implementing electronic cities. These factors can be categorized as political, social, technological, institutional, and individual.

Method

The aim of this research is to develop probable scenarios for the formation of electronic city in Mashhad and presenting strategies in order to achieve dynamic electronic city concept in 1404. The first stage is to identify focal issues that have an impact on decision making which can be considered as the research objective. In the second stage, key factors are identified which are categorized in five dimensions including political, social, technological, institutional, and individual. The third stage is identifying environmental key issues which are presented as a conceptual model showing the important factors for the implementation of an electronic city. Also, in the third stage, a questionnaire was designed (based on two dimensions of degree of impact and uncertainty) in order to collect idea of experts in this field. Results were analyzed based on descriptive and inferential statistics such as the use of Friedman test to rank the driving forces. In the fourth stage, the scenario logic was shaped based on the result of semi-structured interviews with experts. In order to develop scenarios, a sixth stage was considered for developing and interpreting scenarios. In order to develop and evaluate the consequences of scenarios and to design the related strategies, seven semi-structured interviews were conducted.

Results and Discussion

In order to reach the six stages of scenario planning, firstly, 60 people were selected from experts in the area of electronic city of Mashhad. Using descriptive and inferential statistics, influential factors were ranked and the driving forces were identified. In order to define the scenario logic, developing scenarios, predicting its consequences and also defining strategies, interviews were conducted with experts in this field. Results show that three scenarios can be considered for Mashhad as an electronic city including the golden status, non-integrated status, and also the static status. In the later stage, strategies were also identified for reaching the favorable scenario in the future.

Conclusion

Based on the research results and the six stages of scenario planning for the electronic city of Mashhad, three scenarios were described among which the best case was introduced. In the following, the summary of results and also strategies to reach the golden scenario is described. It should be noted that the current evaluation of Mashhad  shows a gap between the current status and the desired one using interview results as well as SWOT analysis. Based on the research objective and interviews, the golden scenario is the best for implementing the electronic city of Mashhad where all organizations interact with each other which can result in a formation of an electronic city with all infrastructures, services, and standard facilities in order to deliver services to citizens. In order to transit to the “Golden status”, it is necessary to provide strategies. These strategies should be considered at national, regional, and urban level consequently. Strategies include having accessibility to information at local, national, and international level 24 hours a day, disseminating the innovation culture, studying future to identify and utilize opportunities over time, promoting the status of innovation, integrating the urban management, utilizing the best processes and activities, providing transparency in operation and decision, allocating autonomy and budget for innovative planning and growing IT.

Keywords

Electronic City; Scenario Planning; strategies; Mashhad

References

1. جلالی، علی اکبر (1382). "سند راهبردی شهر الکترونیک با محوریت شهرداری".

2. جلالی، علی اکبر (1382)."شهر الکترونیک تهران" دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران

3. خوش دهان،علی. (1388)، "آینده پژوهی با تکنیک سناریو نویسی"ص63-50.

4. رهنما و همکاران. (1392)، طرح آمایش خراسان رضوی.

5. رهنما،محمد رحیم؛خوارزمی،امید علی؛کریمی ثانی،وجیهه. (1392). "بررسی چالشها و ارائه راهکار در جهت پیاده سازی شهر الکترونیک در ایران" ، اولین کنفرانس ملی خدمات شهری و محیط زیست مشهد.

6. زالی، نادر. (1390)،آینده‌نگاری راهبردی و سیاست‌گذاری منطقه‌ای با رویکرد سناریونویسی. مطالعات راهبردی، 14(4)، 33- 53.

7. عبدالشاه،محمد؛خانجانی،بیژن. (1391) "آینده پژوهی در صنعت خودرو به روش سناریو نویسی" ، نخستین همایش ملی علوم مدیریت نوین، استان گلستان، گرگان، صص35-20.

8. غفاری گیلانده،عطا؛ یزدانی،محمد حسن؛کاظمی،فرشید؛پادروندی،بهزاد. (1392) "بسترهای استفاده از دولت الکترونیک در نظام یکپارچه مدیریت شهر(مطالعه مردی کلانشهر تهران)" ،پنجمین کنفرانس برنامه ریزی و مدیریت شهری،صص15-1.

9. کرمی،موسی. (1376). "آینده شناسی و آینده نگاری" ،نشریه رهیافت، ش16،تهران،صص24-10.

10. محمودی،مهدی؛عباسی،عطا. (1384). "آ ینده پژوهی و نقش آن در سیاستگذاری علم و فناوری " ،مرکز آینده پژوهی علوم و فنون رفتاری، صص35-20.

11. مرادی پور،حجت الله؛ نوروزیان، مهدی. (1384). "آینده پژوهی،مفاهیم و روشها"، فصلنامه رهیافت،ش36،تهران، صص52-45.

12. ویسی،اکبر؛ قیسوندی، آرمان. (1390). "شهر هوشمند،تکوین انقلاب شهر نوین،شهر الکترونیک واقعیت شهرهای فردا" ، کتاب ماه هنر،ش 155، صص45-36.

13. Asgharizadeh, E., Ajalli Geshlajoghi, M., & Safavi Mirmahalleh, S. R. (2008). Identification of the electronic city application obstacles in Iran. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology (Iteratioal Journal of Innformatio and Communication Egieering), 2(5), 650-655.

14. Bell, W. (1987). Is the futures field an art form or can it become a science?. Futures Research Quarterly, 3(1), 27-44.

15. Bendinger, A., & Jung I. (2004). Virtual city model, now approaches in urban simulation and city planning. Heidelberg: Wichma Velarg.

16. Fahey, L., & Randall, R. M. (1998). Learning from the future: Competitive foresight scenarios. United States: Wiley Publications.

17. Faludi, A. (1970). The planning environment and the meaning of planning. Regional Studies, 4, 1-9.

18. Gordon, T. G. (1992). The methods of the future research. Annals of American of Political and Social Science, 522, 25-35.

19. Jaizuluddin, M. (2011). City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bulungan development plan. Futures, 43(7), 697-706.

20. James, P., Fernando, T., Hamilton. A., & Curwell. S. (2004). Enhancing the decision-making process in urban spatial planning using advanced ICT. Retrieved 5 April, 2015, from https:// www. seek. salford. Ac. uk/ data/ projects/ viewDetails.do?pid=1217&version=1

21. Lennart Nordfors. L., Ericson, B., Lindel, H., & Lapidus. J. (2009). E-government of tomorrow future scenarios for 2020. Seweden: VINNOVA – Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems.

22. Mosleh Kiya. A. (2002). Examination of urban planning and management in virtual city (Ph.D. dissertation), Tehran, Iran.

23. Navabakhsh, M., & Motlaq, M. (2009). Effects of urban information and communication technology on sustainable development. International journal of food, agriculture and environment, 7(3-4), 891-897.

24. Odendaal, N.)2003(. Information and communication technology and local governance: Understanding the difference between cities in developed and emerging economies. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 27(6), 585-607.

25. Porter, M. (1985). Competitive advantage. Free Press: New York.

26. Ratcliffe, J., & Krawczyk, E. (2011). Imagineering city futures: The use of prospective through scenarios in urban planning. Futures, 43, 642-653.

27. Ringland, G. (2006). Scenario planning: Managing for the future (Second Ed.). Chichester: John Wiley and Sons.

28. Slaughter, R. A. (1993). Future concepts. Future, 25(3), 289-314.

29. Slaughter, R. A. (2005). Glossary of future terms. Illinois, IL: Foresight International.

30. Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10-22.

31. Weerakkody, V., El-Haddadeh, R., Al-Shafi, S. )2011(. Exploring the complexities of e-government implementation and diffusion in a developing country: Some lessons from the State of Qatar. Journal of Enterprise Information Management, 24, 172- 196.

32. Zergas, C., & Rayle, L. (2011). Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning’s role as a catalyst for urban policy integration. Futures, 44(4), 303-318.