Contribution of Genetic and Agronomic Measures to Yield Gain of Wheat in Iran

بوم شناسی کشاورزی

Article 9, Volume 11, Issue 1 - Serial Number 39, March 2019, Pages 137-153   

Document Type: Scientific - Research

DOI: 10.22067/jag.v11i1.48702

Authors

Alireza Koocheki^* ; Mehdi Nassiri Mahallati; Afsaneh Amin Ghafoori; Mansooreh Mahlouji Rad

Department of Agrotechnology, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

Introduction
World population will be increased up to 9 billion and food demand up to 50 percent by 2050. This exponential increase in population, without an associated increase in arable land, in recent years, significantly threaten crop production. Therefore, engineering crop plants in order to achieve greater yields has been a major focus of plant biologists and breeders with a view to ensuring food availability for an increasing world population under changing environmental conditions. Plant performance is strongly associated with, and dependent on, plant development and growth. Several developmental features of plants, such as overall plant architecture, leaf features and vasculature architecture, are major traits that determine the overall performance of crop plants. The importance of plant developmental features in increasing crop yield potential became evident during the ‘green revolution’, when an unprecedented increase in yield was achieved by breeding for semi-dwarf varieties of rice and wheat. Furthermore, due to rapid global environmental changes, restricted land and water resources,  increasing food production particularly for wheat should be achieved mainly by increased crop yield (Koning & van Ittersum, 2009). Yield could be increased by genetic or agronomic measures and understanding the share of each component is of great importance for designing future cropping systems. However, these issues are not fully studied and quantified. Therefore, in this research yield trend of irrigated wheat at national level is analyzed for 1971-2011 period and contribution of cultivar improvement and agronomic management to yield increment have been estimated.
 
Material and Methods
Trends of total production, cultivated area and yield of irrigated wheat were analyzed for the country for 40 years (1971-2011) using linear regression with slope as annual increment rate of each variable. Weather-adjusted yield trend was also estimated based on residuals of regression as described by Nassiri Mahallati & Koocheki (2014a). Share of cultivated area and yield in total production was calculated by using component analysis. Annual changes in yield of irrigated wheat (dY, kg ha-1 yr-1 i.e. the slope of yield trend model) described by Equ.(1):
                                                                dY = dG + dN + dP + dO                                  (1)
where dG, dN, dP and dO (all in kg ha-1 yr-1) are annual yield increment due to genetic, N-fertilizers, P-fertilizers and Other agronomic factors. Contribution of genetic factors (dG) was estimated based on the cultivar improvement index (Silvey, 1981). Share of chemical fertilizers (dN and dP) in remaining yield increase (dY - dG) was calculated for each year during the study period. Finally, contribution of other agronomic measures (dO) to yield was estimated by subtracting right hand terms of Equ. (1) from dY.
 
Results and Discussion
Wheat production and yield was increased by 3.2 and 1.4 times over the studied period, respectively. However, cultivated area after a sharp increase at 2.8% per year until 2000 was decreased in the last decade by 1% per year. Annual weather variation showed significant effect on irrigated wheat yield so that averaged over the 40 years, estimated rate of yield increment was 24% lower than weather adjusted yield. During the 4 decades mean contribution of cultivated area and yield on total wheat production were 44 and 56%, respectively and it was estimated that share of yield will be increased up to 70% in the present decade. Genetic yield potential of irrigated wheat cultivars has increased at 57 kg ha-1 yr-1 (1.18% per year) for  the period 1968-2011. During the studied period wheat cultivar improvement contributed to annual rate of yield increment by 34.8% while in the same period average contribution of N and P fertilizers were estimated as 25.4 and 8.8%, respectively leaving 31% for the other agronomic measures.

Keywords

Trend analysis; Genetic potential; Genetic gain; Cultivar improvement index

References

Austin, R.B., Bingham, J., Blackwell, R.D., Evans, L.T., Ford, M.A., Morgan, C.L., and Taylor, M. 1980. Genetic improvements in winter wheat yield since 1900 and associated physiological changes. Journal of Agricultural Science Cambridge Core 94: 675-689.

Bell, M.A., and Fischer, R.A. 1994. Using yield prediction models to assess yield gains: a case study for wheat. Journal Field Crop Research 36: 161-166.

Bell, M.A., Fischer, R.A., Byerlee, D., and Sayre, K. 1995. Genetic and agronomic contributions to yield gains: a case study for wheat. Field Crops Research 44: 55–65.

Brancourt-Hulmel, M., Doussinault, G., Lecomte, C., Be´rard, P., Le Buanec, B., and Trottet, M. 2003. Genetic improvement of agronomic traits of winter wheat cultivars released in France from 1946 to 1992. Crop Science 43: 37–45.

Brennan, J.P., and Byerlee, D. 1991. The rate of crop varietal replacement on farms: measures and empirical results for wheat. Plant Varieties Seeds 4: 99-106.

Brisson, N., Gate, P., Couache, D., Charmet, G., Oury, F.-X., and Huard, F. 2010. Why are wheat yields stagnating in Europe? A comprehensive data analysis for France. Field Crops Research 119: 201–212.

Bruinsma, J. 2009. The resource outlook to 2050: by how much do land, water, and crop yields need to increase by 2050? In: Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in 2050, FAO, Rome, Available at www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/expert paper/05-Bruinsma ResourceOutlookto2050.pdf (verified 19.10.09) [Online]

Calderini, D.F., and Slafer, G.A. 1998. Changes in yield and yield stability in wheat during the 20th century. Field Crops Research 57: 335–347.

Cassman, K.G., Dobermann, A., Walters, D.T., and Yang, H. 2003. Meeting cereal demand while protecting natural resources and improving environmental quality. Annual Reviews Journal of Environmental Resource Economics 28 10.1–10.44.

CAWMA (Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture). 2007. Water for Food, Water for Life: A Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. Earthscan/International Water Management Institute, London/Colombo.

Esmaeilzadeh Moghaddam, M., Jalal Kamali, M.R., Anet, Z., Roshani M., and Ghodsi, M. 2014. Temporal variation in phenological characteristics, grain yield, and yield components of spring bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars released in Iran between 1952 and 2009. Crop Breeding Journal 4(1): 57-64.

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization), 2011. FAOSTAT. FAO, Rome, Available at http://faostat.fao.org/ (verified 16.07.11) [Online].

FAO.2009. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/Issues_papers/HLEF2050_Global_Agriculture.pdf.

Feyerherm, A.M. and Paulsen, G.M., 1981. An analysis of temporal and regional variation in wheat yields. Agronomy Journal 73: 863-867.

Feyerherm, A.M., Kemp, K.E., and Paulsen, G.M. 1988. Wheat yield analysis in relation to advancing technology in the Midwest United States. Agronomy Journal 80: 998-1001.

Firozjaee, A. 2015. Designing wheat ideotype for low input cropping systems: radiation, nitrogen and water use efficiency and the related traits in Iranian wheat cultivars released during 1948-2012. PhD thesis, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran. (In Persian with English Summary)

Fischer, R.A., Byerlee, D., and Edmeades, G.O. 2009. Can technology deliver on the yield challenge to 2050? In: Expert Meeting on How to Feed the World in 2050, FAO, Rome, Available at www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/wsfs/docs/expertpaper/11-Fischer-etalTechnology-Challenge.pdf (verified 13.10.09) [Online].

Fischer, R.A., and Edmeades, G.O. 2010. Breeding and cereal yield progress. Crop Science 50: 85–98.

Gooding, M.J., Ellis, R.H., Shewry, P.R., and Schafield, J.D. 2003. Effects of restricted water availability and increased temperature on the grain filling, drying and quality of winter wheat. Journal of Cereal Science 37: 295–309.

Graybosch, R.A., and Peterson, C.J. 2010. Genetic improvement in winter wheat yields in the Great Plains of North America, 1959–2008. Crop Science, 50: 1882–1890.

Hafner, S. 2003. Trends in maize, rice and wheat yields for 188 nations over the past 40 years: a prevalence of linear growth. Agric. Ecosyst. Journal Environmental Science 97: 275–283.

Hall, A.J., and Richards, R.A. 2014. Prognosis for genetic improvement of yield potential and water-limited yield of major grain crops. Field Crops Research 143: 18-33.

Jaggard, K.W., Qi, A., and Ober, E.S. 2010. Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050. Philosophical. Transaetions.of the Royal Society Biolological Sceince, 365: 2835–2851.

Jensen, N.F. 1978. Limits to growth in world food production. Ceilings for wheat yields are coming in developed countries. Science 201: 317-320.

Kalra, N., Chakraborty, D., Sharma, A., Rai, H.K., Jolly, M., Chander, S., Ramesh Kumar, P., Bhadraray, S., Barman, D., Mittal, R.B., Lal, M., and Sehgal, M. 2008. Effect of increasing temperature on yield of some winter crops in northwest India. Current Science 94: 82–88.

Khodarahmi, M., and Vazan, S. 2010. Trends in morphological and quantitative traits in bread wheat using introduced varieties during the last six decades in Iran. Journal of Agronomy and Plant Breeding 6(1): 29-42.

Koning, N., and Van Ittersum, M.K. 2009. Will the world have enough to eat? Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 1: 77–82.

Lobell, D.B., Cassman, K.G., and Field, C.B. 2009. Crop yield gaps: their importance, magnitudes, and causes. Annual Review Environmental Journal Resource Economics 34: 179–204.

Mackay, I.A., Horwell, J., Garner, J., White J., McKee and Philpott, H. 2011. Reanalyses of the historical series of UK variety trials to quantify the contributions of genetic and environmental factors to trends and variability in yield over time. Theoretical and Applied Genetics 122: 225–238.

MAJ. 2013. Ministry of Jehad-e-Keshavarzi of Iran, statistical database. Crop production statistics, available at: www.maj.ir/portal/Home/Default.aspx (In Persian)

Moll, R.H., Kamprath, E.J., and Jackson, W.A. 1982. Analysis and interpretation of factors which contribute to efficiency of nitrogen utilization. Agronomy Journal 74: 562-564.

Nassiri Mahallati, M., and Koocheki, A. 2014a. Long term evaluation of yield stability trend for cereal crops in Iran. Journal of Agroecology 6(3): 607-621. (In Persian with English Summary)

Nassiri Mahallati, M., and Koocheki, A. 2014b. Trend analysis of nitrogen use and productivity in cereal production systems of Iran. Journal of Agroecology, In Press. (In Persian)

O' Brien, L. 1982. Victorian wheat yield trends, 1898-1977. The Journal of.the Australian. Institute.of Agricultural. Science., 48: 163-167.

Sadras, V.O., and Lawson, C. 2011. Genetic gain in yield and associated changes in phenotype, trait plasticity and competitive ability of South Australian wheat varieties released between 1958 and 2007. Crop and Pasture Sci., 62: 533-549.

Sanchez-Garcia, M., Royo, C., Aparicio, N.J.A., and Álvaro, F. 2012. Genetic improvement of bread wheat yield and associated traits in Spain during the 20th century. Journal of Agricultural Science 151(1): 105–118.

Silvey, V. 1981. The contribution of new wheat, barley and oat varieties to increasing yield in England and Wales 1947-1978. Journal of the National Institute of Agricultural Botany 15: 399-412.

Sinclair, T.R., and Jamieson, P.D. 2006. Grain number, wheat yield and bottling beer: an analysis. Field Crops Research 98: 60–67.

Slafer, G.A., Satorre, E.H., and Andrade, F.H. 1993. Increases in grain yield in bread wheat from breeding and associated physiological changes. In: G.A. Slafer (Editor), Genetic Improvement of Field Crops. Marcel Dekker, New York, pp. 1-8.

Smil, V. 2005. Do we need higher farm yields during the first half of the 21st century? In Yields of farmed species. (eds R. Sylvester-Bradley and J. Wiseman), pp. 1–14. Nottingham, UK: Nottingham University Press.

Wang, F., He, Z., Sayre, K., Li, S., Si, J., Feng, B., and Kong, L. 2009. Wheat cropping systems and technologies in China. Field Crops Research 111: 181-188.

Zhang, X., Wang, S., Sun, H., Chen, S., Shao, L., and Liu, X. 2013. Contribution of cultivar, fertilizer and weather to yield variation of winter wheat over three decades: A case study in the North China Plain. European Journal of Agronomy 50: 52–59.

Zhou, Y., He, Z.H., Sui, X.X., Xia, X.C., Zhang, K., and Zhang, G.S. 2007. Genetic improve-ment of grain yield and associated traits in the Northern China winter wheat region from 1960 to 2000. Crop Science 47: 245–253.

Zare, A., Koocheki, A., and Nassiri, M. 2006. Trend analysis of yield, production and cultivated area of cereal in Iran during the last 50 years and prediction of future situation. Iranian Journal of Field Crops Research 4(1): 49-71. (In Persian with English Summary)