تعیین مهمترین عوامل موثر بر عملکرد باغات زیتون شمال ایران

علوم باغبانی

مقاله 14، دوره 33، شماره 4، زمستان 1398، صفحه 743-755  

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jhorts4.v33i4.82069

نویسندگان

علی آجیلی لاهیجی¹؛ علی محمدی ترکاشوند ²؛ عبدالمحمد محنت کش³؛ میرناصر نویدی³

¹مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گیلان، سازمان تحقیقات،آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی،رشت

²واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران

³.

چکیده

یکی از روش­های نوین در ارزیابی اراضی نسبت به کاربری­های مختلف، مدل­سازی یا شبیه­سازی کاربری مورد نظر است. با توجه به اهمیت عوامل موثر بر عملکرد باغات زیتون کشور، این ارزیابی در شمال ایران در بیش از 80 باغ زیتون شهرستان رودبار استان گیلان که مهمترین باغات زیتون کشور واقع شده است با استفاده از مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی انجام شد. عملکرد محصول باغات زیتون تحت تاثیر عوامل مختلف خاکی، آبی، توپوگرافی و اقلیمی می­باشند، که در مجموع بیست و هشت عامل موثر بر عملکرد زیتون انتخاب و به عنوان متغیرهای ورودی مدل انتخاب شدند. این متغیرها عبارت بودند از خصوصیات خاک شامل EC، میزان مواد خنثی شونده (TNV)، درصد کربن آلی، فسفر قابل جذب، پتاسیم قابل جذب، درصد رس و درصد سیلت، خصوصیات آب آبیاری شامل EC و میزان آب آبیاری، خصوصیات توپوگرافی شامل ارتفاع و شیب، غلظت عناصر غذایی در برگ شامل نیتروژن، فسفر، پتاسیم، آهن و روی، عوامل اقلیمی شامل ساعات آفتابی، میزان تبخیر، میزان متوسط دما به عنوان متغیرهای ورودی و عملکرد محصول به عنوان خروجی مدل­­های شبکه عصبی مصنوعی در نظر گرفته شد. نمونه­­های خاک، آب و برگ از باغات به طور همزمان در مرداد ماه جمع آوری شده و عوامل توپوگرافی از طریق میان­یابی در محیط GIS و با استفاده از نرم­افزار  ArcGisبدست آمد و اطلاعات مربوط به عوامل اقلیمی نیز از ایستگاه‌های هواشناسی منطقه و روش میان­یابی بدست آمد. پس از تعیین بهترین ساختار شبکه عصبی با میزان R آزمون 80 درصد، به کمک آنالیز حساسیت به روش Hill، عکس­العمل مدل به هر یک از متغیرهای ورودی بررسی و مهمترین فاکتورهای تأثیرگذار بر عملکرد محصول زیتون به دست آمد. بر اساس نتایج آنالیز حساسیت، مهم­ترین پارامترهای مؤثر در عملکرد محصول زیتون، به ترتیب نیتروژن برگ، فسفر خاک، تبخیر زمستان، تبخیر تابستان، میانگین دمای پاییز، ساعات آفتابی تابستان، میزان پتاسیم برگ، شوری خاک، شوری آب و شیب می­باشند. که به طور خلاصه می­توان به الویت تامین عناصر غذایی ماکرو المنت مانند نیتروژن و فسفر و تامین رطوبت مورد نیاز با توجه به تبخیر منطقه حتی در فصل زمستان برای باغداران تاکید نمود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

آنالیز حساسیت؛ زیتون؛ شبکه عصبی مصنوعی؛ گیلان؛ مدل سازی

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