Modeling and Prediction of Monthly Max & MinTemperatures of Mashhad Plain Using Time Series Models

آب و خاک

Article 4, Volume 27, Issue 5, November 2014, Pages 896-906   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/jsw.v0i0.31183

Authors

B. Shabani^* ; M. Mousavi Baygi; Mehdi Jabbari Nooghabi; B. Ghareman

Department of Statistics,, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

Abstract

Nowadays, modeling and prediction of climatic parameters due to climate change, global warming and the recent droughts is inevitable. Maximum and minimum temperatures are including climatic parameters that are important in water resources management and agriculture. In order to model the maximum and minimum monthly temperatures of Mashhad plain, the long- term data of Mashhad and Golmakan were used for the joint period from 1987 to 2008. The SARIMA(0,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model for maximum monthly temperature and the SARIMA(0,0,0)(2,1,1)12 model for minimum monthly temperature were determined as the final models using time series. High correlation coefficientsindicate acceptable adaptation of modeling and actual values in the calibration and validation of models. Finlay, predictions were performed based on models fitted for the next 10 years (2009-2018). Comparison of results for future period (2009-2018) and the base period (1987-2008) represents maximum temperature mean 1 °c increase and minimum temperature mean 1.4 °cincrease.

Keywords

Maximum monthly temperature; Minimum monthly temperature; Time Series; Modeling; prediction