استفاده از مدل SSM-iCropبرای پیش‏بینی فنولوژی، عملکرد و بهره‏وری آب کلزا (Brassica napus L.) در شرایط ایران

بوم شناسی کشاورزی

مقاله 10، دوره 13، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 47، فروردین 1400، صفحه 157-177   

نوع مقاله: علمی - پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jag.v13i2.84057

نویسندگان

سمانه رهبان¹؛ بنیامین ترابی^{* 1}؛ افشین سلطانی¹؛ ابراهیم زینلی²

¹گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، ایران.

²گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، ایران

چکیده

 
تغییرات اقلیمی، کاهش تنوع زیستی در منطقه و نگرانی در مورد امنیت غذایی به‌عنوان مشکلاتی مهم مطرح هستند؛ در این راستا بررسی شرایط جهت دستیابی به افزایش تولید محصولات کشاورزی ضروری به نظر می‌رسد. برای بررسی راه‌کارهای افزایش عملکرد، ابتدا بایستی پتانسیل عملکرد و عوامل محدود‌کننده عملکرد تعیین و مورد ارزیابی قرار گیرند. از مدل‌های شبیه‌سازی می‌توان به‌عنوان طرح توسعه‌یافته‌ای از آزمایش‌های مزرعه‌ای برای غلبه بر محدودیت‌هایی مانند زمان و هزینه استفاده نمود. این بررسی با هدف استفاده از مدل SSM-iCrop برای شبیه­سازی فنولوژی، عملکرد و بهره‌وری آب گیاه کلزادر سطح کشور انجام گرفت. در نتیجه پارامتریابی مدل، سه رقم زودرس، متوسط رس و دیرس برای کلزا تعیین شد، که درجه حرارت تجمعی برای کامل شدن دوره رشد آن‌ها به‌ترتیب 2000، 2500 و 2700 درجه سانتی‌گراد روز برآورد گردید. پس از تعیین پارامترهای مورد نیاز، به‌منظور ارزیابی مستقل مدل، با استفاده از داده­های مقالاتی که از آن‌ها برای برآورد پارامترها استفاده نشده بود، بر اساس تاریخ کاشت و مدیریت منطقه مورد نظر و همچنین آمار هواشناسی آن مناطق، مدل اجرا گردید تا درستی و صحت‌سنجی مدل صورت گیرد. با توجه نمودار 1:1 و آماره‏های 87/0r=، (درصد) 18CV= و (g.m-²) 04/67 RMSE= برای عملکرد دانه و 97/0r=، (درصد) 5CV=، (روز) 68/10RMSE= برای روز تا رسیدگی و 83/0r=، (mm.ha^-1) 9/91RMSE=، 35/19CV= برای نیاز آبی می‍توان نتیجه گرفت که شبیه‍سازی رشد کلزا با استفاده از مدل SSM-iCrop رضایت‌بخش بوده است و نتایج حاکی از برآورد صحیح پارامترهای مدل و تصدیق‌کننده کارایی مدل در پیش‍بینی عملکرد کلزا در ایران می‍باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ارزیابی؛ پارامتریابی؛ شبیهسازی؛ مدل‏های گیاهی

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