Trend Analysis of Monthly and Annual Mean Temperature of the Northern Half of Iran Over the Last 50 Years

آب و خاک

Article 11, Volume 28, Issue 4, September 2013, Pages 855-865   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/jsw.v0i0.29721

Authors

F. Ahmadi^* ; F. Radmanesh

Shahid Chamran University, Ahvaz, Iran

Abstract

The temperature is one of the essential elements in formation of climate and its changes can alter the climate of each region, Therefore study of temperature changes at different spatial and temporal scales is devoted a large part of research to climatology. The mean temperature changes of the northern half area of Iran (18 Synoptic stations) in monthly or annual scales (1961-2010) are tested with using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and elimination of all auto-correlation coefficients. To determine the slope of temperature gradient, the Sen’s slope estimation method was used. The results showed that 61% of the stations have experienced a significant increase in annual scale, in expect of Urmia, Zanjan, Qazvin and Gorgan stations. Arak is also a significant decrease, Torbate Heydarie and Saghez have experienced non-significant negative trend in annual scale. In monthly scale, number of months with increasing trend was greater than decreasing trend. April, September and October have significant increasing trend in most stations. December has lowest changing in compare with others. In conclusion, the studied temperature area in past half century 1.15 C is increased

Keywords

Mann-Kendall test; Auto-Correlation; Trend; Sen’s Slope

References

اسمعیل پور م.، و دین پژوه ی. 1391. تحلیل بلند مدت تبخیر تعرق پتانسیل در حوضه جنوبی ارس. مجله جغرافیا وبرنامه ریزی محیطی، جلد 47، شماره 3، صفحات 210-193.

2- دودانگه ا.، عابدی کوپایی ج.، و گوهری ع. 1391. کاربرد مدل های سری زمانی به منظور تعیین روند پارامتر های اقلیمی در آینده در راستای مدیریت منابع آب. مجله علوم و فنون کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی (علوم آب و خاک). 16(59): 74-59.

3- علیجانی ب.، محمودی پ.، سلیقه م.، ریگی جاهی ا. 1390. بررسی تغییرات کمینه ها و بیشینه های سالانه دما در ایران. فصلنامه تحقیقات جغرافیایی، جلد 26، شماره 3، صفحات 122-101.

4- میرعباسی ر. و دین پژوه ی. 1389. تحلیل روند تغییرات آبدهی رودخانه های شمال غرب ایران در سه دهه اخیر. نشریه آب و خاک، جلد 24، شماره 4، صفحات 768-757.

5- میرعباسی ر. و دین پژوه، ی. 1391. تحلیل بارش های شمال غرب ایران در نیم قرن گذشته. مجله علوم و مهندسی آبیاری، جلد 35، شماره 4، صفحات 73-59.

6- Boccolari M., and Malmusi. S. 2013. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena, Italy. Atmospheric Research. 122:16-31.

7- Dinpashoh Y., Jhajharia D., Fakheri-Fard A., Singh VP. and Kahya E. 2011. Trends in reference crop evapotranspiration over Iran, Journal of Hydrology. 399: 422–433.

8- Gocic M. and Trajkovic S. 2013. Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Global and Planetary Change. 100:172-182.

9- Hamed K.H. and Rao A.R. 1998. A modified Mann–Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. Journal of Hydrology. 204: 182–196.

10-Kousari M.R., Ahani H. and Hendi-Zadeh R. 2013. Temporal and spatial trend detection of maximum air temperature in Iran during 1960–2005. Global and Planetary Change. 111:97-110.

11- Kumar S., Merwade V., Kam J. and Thurner K. 2009. Streamflow trends in Indiana: Effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. Journal of Hydrology. 374: 171-183.

12- Lane M., Kirshen P. and Vogel R. 1999. Indicators of impact of global climate change on U.S. water resources. ASCE, J. Water Resour. Planning and Manag. 125(4): 194-204.

13- Martinez C., Maleski J. and Miller F. 2012. Trends in precipitation and temperature in Florida, USA. Journal of Hydrology. 453: 259-281.

14- Rio S.D., Herrero L., Pinto-Gomes C. and Peras A. 2011. Spatial analysis of mean temperature trends in Spain over the period 1961-2006. Global and Planetary change. 78: 65-75.

15- Saboohi R., Soltani S., khodagholi M. 2012. Trend analysis of temperature parameters in Iran. Theor Appl Climatol. 109:529–547.

16- Tabari H. and Hosseinzadeh-Talaee P. 2011. Recent trends of mean maximum and minimum air temperatures in the western half of Iran, Journal of Meteorological Atmosphere Physics. 111: 121–131.

17- Tabari H. and Hosseinzadeh-Talaee. 2011. Analysis trends in temperature data in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Atmospheric Research. 79:1-10.

18- Turkes M., Ut Ku M.S. and Kolic G. 1995. Variations and trends in annual mean air temperature in Turkey with respect to climatic variability, International Journal of Climatology. 15: 557-569.

19- Turkes M. 1996. Spatial and temporal analysis of annual rainfall variations in Turkey, International Journal of Climatology. 16: 1057-1076.

20- Yang X.L., Xu L.R., Li C.h., Hu J. and Xia X.H. 2012. Trends in temperature and precipitation in the Zhangweinan River basin during last 53 years. Procedia Environmental Sciences. 13: 1966-1774.

21- Zarenistanak M., Dhorde A.G. and Kripalani R. H. 2013. Temperature analysis over southwest Iran: trends and projections. Theor Appl Climatol. DOI 10.1007/s00704-013-0913-1.

22- Wang Q., Fan X., Qin Z. and Wang M. 2012. Change trends of temperature and precipitation in the Loess Plateau Region of China, 1961–2010. Global and Planetary Change. 93:138-147.