Simulation the Effect of Climate Change on Growth Period and Yield of three Hybrids of Maize (Zea mays) under Low Irrigation Conditions (Case study: Moghan Plain)

پژوهشهای زراعی ایران

Article 10, Volume 17, Issue 1 - Serial Number 53, April 2019, Pages 141-155   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/gsc.v17i1.72189

Authors

A. A Rostami Ajirloo^{* 1}; M. R Asgharipour²; A Ghanbari¹; M Joudi³; M Khoramivafa⁴

¹Zabol University

²University of Zabol

³University of Mohaghegh Ardabili

⁴Razi University of Kermanshah

Abstract

Introduction: According to the present state of climate science, the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations will result in changes of the climate parameters; particularly, an increase of the global temperature and changes in precipitation are expected. These changes in climate, which are likely to occur during future decades, may have significant consequences (positive or negative) on the development, growth, and crops yield. Climate change and its impacts on water recourses is known as one of the most important challenges which human would be faced with it in future century. Future climate change in each region can be predicted through the models of the Globa Circulation Model (GCM). It is also possible to investigate the effect of climate change on the yield and the water requirement of plants using performance predictive models as Aquacrop model. The main objective of this study is to assess the effect of climate change on the future climate of Moghan plain and also, simulation three corn hybrids parameters such as grain yield, biomass yield and growth period of corn, under different irrigation treatments.
Materials and Methods: In this study, AquaCrop model was used to simulate grain yield and biomass of different maize hybrids under the future climate in different irrigation treatments. For this purpose, rainfall data, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and sunshine model of the LARS-WG fine-scale model with using six general circulation models (ADCM3, HadCM3, IPCM4, GFCM2, NCCCSM INCM3), for which three scenarios the fourth report of the Climate Change Board (A1B, A2, and B1) was predicted and reviewed for the Moghan region during 1970-2010, 2011-2030 and 2046-2065. AquaCrop model was calibrated and validated by field data (2015 and 2016 year), corn plants collected in the area. Then, the grain and biomass yield values in the upcoming periods for different irrigation treatments (I1 = normal irrigation, I2 = irrigation cut off at vegetative growth stage, I3 = irrigation cut during flowering stage and I4 = irrigation cut off at the seed filling stage) different maize hybrids (C1 = SC704, C2 = SC703 and C3 = SC705).
Results and Discussion: According to the results, in the statistical period of 2011-2030 compared base periods (1970-1999), the average monthly temperature was 1.41, 1.35, and 1.66 ° C, respectively for scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. Also, the average monthly rainfall will be reduced to of 6, 11 and 15 mm, respectively, for scenarios A1B, A2 and B1, and during 2046-2065 periods, compared to period of 1979-2010. Furthermore, the monthly average of the temperature will be increased to 2.9, 2.69 and 2.32 ° C respectively, for scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. During this period, the amount of rain reduction was estimated at 18, 15 and 14 millimeters, respectively, in scenarios A1B, A2, and B1. The results of simulation of grain yield and total biomass of maize cultivars under the influence of irrigation administrations using AquaCrop model showed that the root mean square variables of seed and dry matter yield errors in years 2015 and 2016 were 413 and 891 kg.ha-1. The root mean square mean of normalized error of seed and dry matter yield was 11 and 10%, respectively. Also, with using future meteorological data under different scenarios was observed that growth period, grain yield and biomass yield during 2011-2030 and 2046-2065 periods for three scenarios A2, B1 A1B were decreased. Among the cultivars studied, Hybrid SC704 corn had more growth and yield than other corn hybrids, and this figure could be recommended for future climate change for Moghan area.
Conclusions: Future meteorological data under different scenarios of climate change will decrease growth period, grain yield and biomass yield during 2011-2030 for scenarios A1B, A2 and B1, respectively, 7 %, 16 % and 9%, and during period 2045-2065 for scenarios A1B, A2 and B1, respectively, 13 %, 14 % and 12 percent. Among the cultivars studied, the growth period of SC 704 hybrid was higher for all three scenarios than other hybrids and it has more growth and yield, therefore can recommended to change future climate for Moghan region.

Keywords

Aquacrop model; climate; corn; yield

References

1. Abkar, A., Habibnajad, M., Solaimani, K., and Naghavi, H. 2013. Investigation efficiency SDSM model to simulate temperature indexes in arid and semi-arid regions. Water and Irrigation Engineer Journal 4 (14): 1-17. (in Persian).

2. Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M. 1998."Crop evapotranspiration. Guidelines for computing crop water requirements", Irrigation and Drainage paper no. 56. FAO, Rome, 1998.

3. Ansari, H., Khadivi, M., Salehnia, N., and Babaeian, I. 2015. Evaluation of Uncertainty LARS Model under Scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 in Precipitation and Temperature Forecast (Case Study: Mashhad Synoptic Stations). Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage 4 (8): 664-672. (in Persian).

4. Ashraf, B., Alizadeh, A., Mousavi Baygi, M., and Bannayan Awal, M. 2014. Verification of Temperature and Precipitation Simulated Data by Individual and Ensemble Performance of Five AOGCM Models for North East of Iran. Journal of Water and Soil 28 (2): 253-266. (in Persian).

5. Babalola, O. S., and Akinsanola, A. A. 2016. Change Detection in Land Surface Temperature and Land Use Land Cover over Lagos Metropolis, Nigeria. Journal of Remote Sensing 5: 2-19.

6. Chen, G., Liu, H., Zhang, J., Liu, Peng, and Dong, S. 2012. Factors affecting summer maize yield under climate change in Shandong Province in the Huanghuaihai Region of China. International Journal of Biometeorology. 56: 621-629.

7. Daccache, A., Weatherhead, E. K., Stalham, M. A., and Knox, J. W. 2011. Impacts of climate change on irrigated potato production in a humid climate. Journal of Agriculture and Forest Meteorology 151(7):1641-1653.

8. Ding, D., Feng, H., Zhao, Y., Liu, W., Chen, H., and He, J. 2016. Impact assessment of climate change and later-maturing cultivars on winter wheat growth and soil water deficit on the Loess Plateau of China. Climate Change 138: 157-171.

9. Doorenbos, J., and Kassam, A. H. 1979. Yield response to water. Irrigation and Drainage paper no.33. FAO, Rome.

10. Hajarpour, A., Soltani, A., Zeinali, E., and Sayyedi, F. 2013. Simulating the impact of climate change on production of Chickpea in rainfed and irrigated condition of Kermanshah. Journal of Plant Production 20 (2): 235-252. (in Persian).

11. Hatfield, J. L., Boote, K. J., Kimball, B. A., Ziska, L. H., Izaurralde, R. C., Ort, D., Thomson A. M., and Wolfe, D. 2011. Climate Impacts on Agriculture: Implications for Crop Production. Agronomy Journal 103: 351-370.

12. Heydarinia, M., Nasery, A. A., and Borumand, S. 2012. Investigating the applicability of Aqua Crop model in plantation of sunflower irrigation in Ahvaz. Journal Mnagement System 5 (4): 37-50. (in Persian).

13. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Available online: http://ipcc.ch/publications and data/publications and data reports.shtml (accessed on 20 April 2016).

14. Jacovides, C. P., and Kontoyiannis, H. 1995. “Statistical procedures for the evaluation of Evapotranspiration computing models". Agricultural Water Management 27: 365-371.

15. Koocheki, A., and Nassiri Mahallati, M. 2016. Climate Change Effects on Agricultural Production of Iran: II. Predicting Productivity of Field Crops and Adaptation Strategies. Iranian Journal of Field Crops Research 14 (1): 1-20. (in Persian).

16. Koocheki, A., Nassiri, M. Soltani, A. Sharifi, H., and R. Ghorbani. 2006. Effects of climate change on growth criteria and yield of sunflower and chickpea crops in Iran. Journal of Climate Research 14: 247-253.

17. Lhomme, J. P., Mougou, R., and Mansour, M. 2009. Potential impact of climate change on durum wheat cropping in Tunisia. Climate Change 96 (4): 549-564.

18. Li, X., Takahashi, T., Suzuki, N., and Kaiser, H. M 2011. The impact of climate change on maize yields in the United States and China. Agricultural Systems 104: 348-353.

19. Ma, L., Ahujaa, L. R., Islamb, A. T. J., Troutc, S. A., Saseendrand, R., and Malonee, W. 2017. Modeling yield and biomass responses of maize cultivars to climate change under full and deficit irrigation. Agricultural Water Management Journal 180: 88-98.

20. Mesbahboani, A. R., and Morid, S. 2005. Climate change effects on water resources and agricultural production. Case study: Isfahan Zayandeh-Doud Basin. Iranian Water Resources Research Journal 1 (4): 40-47. (in Persian).

21. Moradi, R, Koocheki, A., and Nassiri Mahallati, M. 2013. Effect of Climate Change on Maize Production and Shifting of Planting Date as Adaptation Strategy in Mashhad. Journal of Agricultural Science and Sustainable Production 3 (4):111-131. (in Persian).

22. Nasiry, Sh., Shamsnia, A., and Aflatuni, M. 2014. Simulation of yield in wheat field using Aqua Crop model (Case study: Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari: Shahrekord, Borujen areas). 2sd National Conference on Water Crisis, Shahrekord University. April 8-9, 2014.

23. Raymond, C. L., Peterson, D. L., and Rochefort, R. M. 2014. Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the North Cascades Region, Washington; General Technical Report-Pacific Northwest Research Station; USDA Forest Service: Washington, DC, USA, 2014; pp. 1-279.

24. Richard, C., Sicher, K., and James, A. 2015. The Impact of Enhanced Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations on the Responses of Maize and Soybean to Elevated Growth Temperatures. Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015. Food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environment Change 14:

53-67.

25. Rootaei, M., Sohrabi, T., Massah Bavani, A., and Ahadi, M. S. 2012, “Risk Evaluation of Biomass Yield of Corn Affected by Climate Change”, Journal of Water Research in Agriculture 26 (4): 425-438. (in Persian).

26. Roustaie, M., Sohraby, T., Mesbah Boani, A., and Ahadi, M. S. 2011. Risk assessment of maize biomass yield under the influence of climate change (Case study: Pakdasht, Iran). 1st National Conference on Meteorology and Water Management. Novomber 5-6, 2011. 11 pages. (in Persian).

27. Roustaie, M., Sohraby, T., Mesbah Boani, A., and Ahadi, M. S. 2012. Risk assessment of maize biomass yield under the influence of climate change. Journal of Water Research in Agriculture 4 (26): 425-438. (in Persian).

28. Sayari, N., Alizadeh, A., Banayan, M., Farid Hoseiny, A., and Hesami Kermani, M. R. 2011. Investigation of drought trend under climate change conditions in Kashfrud basin in future periods using model of HadCM3 and two scenarios of A2 and B2. Journal of Climatology 2 (7-8): 22-42. (in Persian).

29. Soleymani Nanadegani, M., Parsinejad, M., Araghinejad, Sh., and Massah Bavani, A. 2011. Study on Climate Change Effect on Net Irrigation Requirement and Yield for Rainfed Wheat (Case Study: Behshahr). Journal of Water and Soil 25 (2): 389-397. (in Persian).

30. Soltani, A., and Gholipoor, M. 2006. Simulating the impact of climate change on growth, yield and water use of chiclpea. Journal of Agriculture Science and Nature Resources 13 (2): 1-11. (in Persian).

31. Steduto, P., Raes, D., Hsiao, T. C., Fereres, E., Heng, L., Izzi, G., and Hoogeveen, J. 2005. "AquaCrop: a new model for crop prediction under water deficit conditions". Options Mediterraneennes. 80: 202-214.

32. Steduto, P., Raes, D., Hsiao, T. C., Fereres, E., Heng, L., Izzi, G. and Hoogeveen, J. 2015. "AquaCrop: a new model for crop prediction under water deficit conditions". Options Mediterraneennes 80: 220-230.

33. Steduto, P., Raes, T., Hsiao, T. C. Fereres, E., Heng, L., Izzi, G., and Hoogeveen, J. 2009. AquaCrop: a new model for crop prediction under water deficit conditions. Options Mediterranennes 80: 285-292.

34. Tacarindua, C. R., Shiraiwa, T., Homma, K., Kumagai, E., and Sameshima, R. 2013. The effects of increased temperature on crop growth and yield of soybean grown in a temperature gradient chamber. Field Crops Research 154 (1):74-81.

35. Vatankhah Sadat, A. 2009. Feasibility regions cultivation of citrus in Prsabad Moghan. M.Sc., Thesis. Azad University, Ahar branch, 95 p.

36. Wilcox, J., and Makowski, D. 2014. A meta-analysis of the predicted effects of climate change on wheat yield using simulation studies. Field Crops Research 156 (2): 180-190.

37. Zarghami, M., Abdi, A., Babaeian, I., Hasanzadeh, Y., and Kanani, R. 2011. Impacts of climate change on runoffs in East Azerbaijan, Iran. Global and Planetary Change 78: 137-146.