اثر تغییرات اقلیمی بر رواناب و تبخیر و تعرق حوزه آبخیز مهرگرد

آب و خاک

مقاله 17، دوره 34، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 69، فروردین 1399، صفحه 225-239   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.v34i1.82329

نویسندگان

زهرا نوری¹؛ علی طالبی^{* 1}؛ بابک ابراهیمی²

¹دانشگاه یزد

²شرکت آب منطقه‌ای اصفهان

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم اثرات قابل توجهی بر چرخه آبی دارد، به گونه‌ای که می‌تواند تهدیدی بزرگ برای سامانه‌های آبی در جهان قلمداد شود. هدف از این مطالعه بررسی اثر احتمالی تغییر متغیر‌های اقلیمی بر رواناب و تبخیر و تعرق حوزه آبخیز مهرگرد است. برای این منظور با استفاده از مدل SDSM5.2 و سناریویRCP8.5  خروجی مدل تغییر اقلیم CanESM2 ریزمقیاس‌نمایی و برای دوره 2017 تا 2030 شبیه‌سازی شد. از داده‌های روزانه حداقل و حداکثر دما در ایستگاه بروجن و بارش ایستگاه تنگ زردآلو برای دوره پایه 2005-1984 به عنوان ورودی‌های مدل اقلیمی استفاده شد. هم‌چنین برای شبیه‌سازی شرایط هیدرولوژیکی حوزه آبخیز از مدل SWAT2012 استفاده شد. عملیات واسنجی برای دوره 2012-2004 و اعتبارسنجی برای دوره 2016-2013 با استفاده از الگوریتم SUFI-2 انجام شد. نتایج حاصل از ارزیابی مدلSDSM5.2  براساس معیارهای آماری NS،  R2و RMSE نشان داد که مدل در شبیه‌سازی متغیر دما نسبت به بارش از دقت بالاتری برخوردار بوده است. بر این اساس برای آینده کاهش 48/53 درصدی بارش و افزایش 84/0 و 99/3 درجه سانتی‌گراد به‌ترتیب برای حداقل و حداکثر دما پیش‌بینی شد. ضریب نش-ساتکلیف و ضریب تعیین برای رواناب در مرحله واسنجی به‌ترتیب 69/0 و 73/0 و برای مرحله اعتبارسنجی به‌ترتیب 58/0 و 71/0 به‌ دست آمدند. هم‌چنین تغییراقلیم باعث کاهش 82/23 درصدی رواناب، کاهش 03/26 درصدی تبخیر و تعرق واقعی و افزایش 20/10 درصدی تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

بیلان آب؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ ریزمقیاس‌نمایی؛ سناریوهای اقلیمی؛ مدل SWAT

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