شناسایی رژیم بارش ناحیه خزری

آب و خاک

مقاله 10، دوره 35، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 77، مرداد و شهریور 1400، صفحه 445-459  

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.2021.67063.0

نویسندگان

حسین عساکره ¹؛ نسرین ورناصری قندعلی²

¹استاد اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

²دانشجوی دکتری تغییرات آب و هوایی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

چکیده

در پژوهش حاضر با استفاده از داده­های روزانه 385 ایستگاه ‌همدید، اقلیم‌شناسی و باران­سنجی سازمان هواشناسی کشور و ایستگاه‌های باران­سنجی وزارت­نیرو طی بازة زمانی 2016-1966 جنبه­های پنهان بارش و رژیم بارشی ناحیه خزری مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. در ابتدا نقشه‌های بارش روزانه با تفکیک مکانی 3 × 3 کیلومتر ایجاد شد و برای هر پیکسل ایجاد شده در نقشه، افت­و­خیز سینوسی بارش 12 ماه سال براساس روش همسازها بررسی گردید. به­منظور شناسایی الگوهای مکانی بارش براساس سهم تناوب­های مختلف و نیز پهنه­بندی آن از شگرد تحلیل خوشه­ای استفاده­شد. سپس نمایه یکنواختی و فصلی بارش برآورد شد. نتایج نشان می­دهد، بیش­ترین ضریب­تغییرپذیری ماه­به­ماه بارش در خط ساحلی دریای خزر می­باشد. این وضعیت گویای تغییرات فراوان ماه­به­ماه و عدم ثبات فصل بارشی در این مناطق است، با دور شدن از خط ساحلی ضریب تغییرات نیز به­تدریج کاسته می­شود به‌طوری­که، کمینه آن در بخش­هایی از ارتفاعات البرز می­باشد. این امر گویای فعالیت سامانه‌های متنوع باران­زایی و یا حداقل تداوم سامانه­های باران­زا در این نقاط و ثبات فصل بارشی است. نمایه یکنواختی نشانگر این است، در بخش­های ساحلی دریای خزر توزیع بارش متمرکزتر است و با پیشروی به‌سمت مناطق جنوبی ناحیه توزیع زمانی بارش یکنواخت­تر می­گردد. نمایه­فصلی بارش بیانگر وجود سه نوع رژیم بارش است. کم­ترین وسعت مکانی مربوط به رژیم بارش یکنواخت می­باشد، که در بخش­های کوچکی از ارتفاعات البرز دیده­می­شود. گسترده­ترین رژیم بارشی مربوط به رژیم یکنواخت با یک فصل مرطوب­تر است. این رژیم بارشی در شرق و غرب ناحیه و جنوب دریای خزر مشاهده می­شود. رژیم سوم که به رژیم عمدتاً فصلی با یک فصل خشک کوتاه مربوط می­باشد، خط ساحلی دریای خزر، بخش­هایی از ارتفاعات تالش و بخش کوچکی از شرق ناحیه را پوشش می­دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

رژیم بارش؛ ناحیه خزری؛ نمایه ضریب تغییرات؛ نمایه فصلی؛ نمایه یکنواختی

مراجع

1-       Abaje I.B., Ishaya S., and Usman S.U. 2010. An Analysis of Rainfall Trends in Kafanchan, Kaduna State, Nigeria. Research Journal of Environmental and Earth Sciences 2(2): 89-96.

2-       Albaurrea J., Asın J., Centelles A., and Gonz´alez B. 2003. Spatial-temporal analysis of the precipitation in the Ebro basin. Journal of Hydrology 210: 67–99.

3-       Alexandersson H. 1986. A Homogeneity Test Applied to precipitation data.Journal of Climatology, 6:661- 675.

4-       Alijani B. 2008. Climate of Iran. Payam Noor University Press, Tehran. (In Persian)

5-       Alijani B., Mohammadi H., and Bigdeli A. 2008. The Role of Pressure Patterns on the Precipitation of the South Coast of Caspian Sea. Territory 4(16): 37-52. (In Persian with English abstract)

6-       Asakareh H. 2010. An analysis of precipitation regime change in Zanjan province. NIVAR Journal of Meteorological Organization 34(70,71): 63-76. (In Persian with English abstract)

7-       Asakareh H., and Razmi R. 2011. Change of the Precipitation Regime in Northwest of Iran. Journal of Climate Research 2(7,8): 99-114. (In Persian with English abstract)

8-       Asakareh H., and Razmi R. 2014. Temporal Distribution and Regime of Precipitation of Northwest of Iran. Geographical Researches 29(1): 145-160. (In Persian with English abstract)

9-       Asakereh H. 2011. Fundamentals of Statistical Climatology. University of Zanjan Press, Zanjan. (In Persian)

10-   Asakereh H., and Varnaseri ghandali N. 2021. Decade changes in monthly mean of precipitation in recent five decades over the Caspian coast of Iran territory. Journal of Climate Research 11(42):31-46. (In Persian with English abstract)

11-   Clark S., Reeder M.J., and Jakob C. 2018. Rainfall regimes over northwestern Australia. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 144: 458–467.

12-   Dalezios N.R., and Bartzokas A. 1995. Daily precipitation variability in semiarid agricultural regions in Macedonia, Greece. Hydrological Sciences Journal 40(5): 569-585.

13-   Domroes M., Kaviani M., and Schaefer D. 1998. An analysis of regional and intra-annual precipitation variability over Iran using multivariate statistical methods. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 61: 151-159.

14-   Farshadfar E. 2010. Principles and Methods of Multivariate Statistics. Sadaf Publications, Kermanshah. (In Persian)

15-   Fetene Z.A., Weldegerima T.M., Zeleke T.T., and Nigussie M. 2018. Harmonic Analysis of Precipitation Time Series in Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. Advances in Meteorology 3: 1-9.

16-   Ghashghaei Gh. 1996. Investigation of the effect of Siberian high pressure on the autumn Precipitation of the southern coast of the Caspian Sea. Master's thesis of natural geography. Tarbiat Moallem University. (In Persian with English abstract)

17-   Ghayoor H.A., and Masoudian S.A. 1998. Spatial study of the uniformity index of temporal distribution of precipitation in Iran. Geographical Researches 13(2,3): 19-28. (In Persian)

18-   Ghayoor H.A., Masoodiyan S.A., Azadi M., and Noori H. 2011. Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Precipitation Events in the Southern Coasts of Caspian Sea. Geographical Researches 26(100): 1-30. (In Persian with English abstract)

19-   Halabian A.H., Dehghanpour A.R., and Ashori Ghaleroodkhany Z. 2016. Synoptic Analysis of Extreme and Widespread Precipitations in Caspian Eastern Coasts. Geography and Environmental Hazards 5(19): 37-57. (In Persian with English abstract)

20-   Hosseini M., Masoodian S.A., and Movahedi S. 2015. Analysis of the Concurrence of Black Sea High Pressure System and Daily Precipitation in IRAN. Geographical Researches 30(1): 1-16. (In Persian with English abstract)

21-   Jackson I.J., and Weinand H. 1995. Classification of tropical rainfall stations: a comparison of clustering techniques. International Journal Climatology 15(9): 985–994.

22-   Jahanbakhsh S., Abtahi V., Ghorbani M.A., Tadaiyoni M., and Valaei A. 2015. Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Rainfall in Tabriz County Using Hierarchical Cluster Analysis. Geographic Space 15(50): 59-81. (In Persian with English abstract)

23-   Jahanbakhsh S., and Karami F. 1999. Synoptic analysis of the effect of Siberian high-pressure on precipitation on the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea. Geographical Researches 54,55: 107-131. (In Persian)

24-   Janbaz Ghobadi Gh.R., Mofidi A., and Zarrin A. 2011. Recognizing the Synoptic Patterns of Wintertime Heavy Precipitation in the Southern Coast of the Caspian Sea. Geography and Environmental Planning 22(2): 23-40. (In Persian with English abstract)

25-   Justino F., Setzer A., Bracegirdle T.J., Mendes D., Grimm A., Dechiche G., and Schaefer C.E.G.R. 2010. Harmonic analysis of climatological temperature over Antarctica: present day and greenhouse warming perspectives. International Journal Climatology 31(4): 1-17.

26-   Kadioglu M., Ozturk N., Erdun H., and Sen Z. 1999. on the precipitation climatology of Turkey by harmonic analysis. International Journal Climatology 19: 1717-1728.

27-   Kansakar S.R., and Hannah D.M., Gerrard J., and Rees G. 2004. spatial pattern in the precipitation regime of Nepal. International Journal Climatology 24(13): 1645–1659.

28-   Karagianndis A., Bloutsos A., Mahers P., and Sachsamanoglou Ch. 2008. Some statistical characteristics of precipitation in Europe. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 91: 193-204.

29-   Khalili A. 1973. Precipitation patterns of Central Elburz. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 21(2): 215–232.

30-   Khorshiddoust A.M., and  Shirzad A.A. 2014. The Study of Precipitation in North of Iran Using Cluster and Discriminative Function Analyses. Journal of Geography and Planning 18(49): 101-118. (In Persian with English abstract)

31-   Khoshhaldastjerdi J. 1997. Analysis and presentation of synoptic climatological models for precipitation of more than one hundred millimeters on the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea. Ph.D Thesis in Natural Geography. Trabiat Modares University. (In Persian with English abstract)

32-   Kirkyla K.I., and Hameed S. 1989. Harmonic analysis of the seasonal cycle in precipitation over the united state: Acomparison between observations and a general circulation model. Journal of Climate 2(12): 1463-1475.

33-   Lana A., Campins J., Genov´es A., and Jans A. 2007. Atmospheric Patterns for Heavy Rain Events in The Balearic Islands. Advances in Geosciences 12: 27-32.

34-   Livada I., and Asimakopoulos D.N. 2005 . Individual seasonality index of rainfall regimes in Greece. Climate Research 28(2): 155–161.

35-   Livada I., Chralambous G., and Assimakopoulos M.N. 2008. Spatial and temporal study of precipitation characteristics over Greece. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 93: 45-55.

36-   Lyra G.B., Oliveira-J ´ unior J.F., and Zeri M. 2014. Cluster analysis applied to the spatial and temporal variability of monthly rainfall in Alagoas state, Northeast of Brazil. International Journal Climatology 34: 3546–3558.

37-   Martinez M.D., Lana X., Burgueno A., and Serra C. 2007. Spatial and temporal daily rainfall regime in Catalonia (NE Spain) derived from four precipitation indices, years1950–2000. International Journal Climatology 27(1): 123–138.

38-   Masoodiyan S.A. 2003. Investigation of Precipitation Geographical Dispersion In Iran through Rotated Factor Analysis. Geography And Development Iranian Journal 1(1): 79-87. (In Persian with English abstract)

39-   Masoodiyan S.A. 2005. Identification of precipitation regimes in Iran by cluster analysis. Geographical Research Quarterly 37(1): 47-59. (In Persian)

40-   Masoodiyan S.A. 2011. Climate of Iran. Sharia Toos Press, Mashhad. (In Persian)

41-   Masoodiyan S.A., and Ataei H. 2005. A Cluster Analysis of Prcipitation Seasons of Iran. Research Bulletin of Isfahan University (Humanities) 18(1): 1-12. (In Persian with English abstract)

42-   Mohammadi H., Azizi Gh., Taghavi F., and Yousefi Y. 2011. Temporal and Spatial Variability of Maximum Monthly Precipitation over Southern Parts of The Caspian Sea. Physical Geography Research Quarterly 43(75): 1-18. (In Persian with English abstract)

43-   Nastos P.T., and Zerefos C.S. 2010. Cyclic Modes of the Intra-annual Variability of Precipitation in Greece. Advances In Geosciences 25: 45–50.

44-   Oliveira-Júnior J.F., Góis G., and Coll Delgado R. 2017. Cluster analysis identified rainfall homogeneous regions in Tocantins state, Brazil. Bioscience Journal 33(2): 333-340.

45-   Pohl E., Gloaguen R., and Seiler R. 2015. Remote Sensing-Based Assessment of the Variability of Winter and Summer Precipitation in the Pamirs and Their Effects on Hydrology and Hazards Using Harmonic Time Series Analysis. Remote Sensing 7: 9727-9752.

46-   Pourasghar F., Jahanbakhsh S., Sari saraf B., Ghaemi H., and Tadayoni M. 2013. Precipitation Regime in South Part of Iran Studying of Iran. Journal of Geography and Planning 17(44): 27-46. (In Persian with English abstract)

47-   Razmi R. 2010. Precipitation regime change in Azerbaijan of Iran. M.A physical Geography (climatology) thesis. Zanjan University. Faculty of Human Science. (In Persian with English abstract)

48-   Reiser H., and Kutiel H. 2007. The rainfall regime and its uncertainty in Valencia and Larnaca. Advances in Geosciences 12: 101–106.

49-   Saligheh M., Nasserzadeh M.H., and Chehreara Ziabari T. 2016. Study of the relation between NCPI and CACO indices with autumn precipitation of Southern Coast of Caspian Sea. Journal of Applied Researches in Geographical Sciences 16(43): 217-238. (In Persian with English abstract)

50-   Scott C.M., and Shulman M.D. 1979. An Areal and Temporal Analysis of Precipitation in the Northeastern United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology 18: 627-633.

51-   Tarawneh Q. 2016. Harmonic analysis of precipitation climatology in Saudi Arabia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 124: 205-217.

52-   Tarawneh Q., and Kadoglu M. 2003. An analysis of precipitation climatology in Jordan. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 74: 123-126.

53-   Walsh R.P.D., and Lawler D.M. 1981. Rainfall seasonality spatial patterns and change through time. Weather 36(7): 201–208.