پاندمی کرونا و آینده سیاسی اتحادیه اروپا

پژوهش نامه ایرانی سیاست بین الملل

مقاله 6، دوره 9، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 17، اسفند 1399، صفحه 139-170   

نوع مقاله: مقالات

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/irlip.2021.21458.0

نویسندگان

علیرضا سمیعی اصفهانی^{* 1}؛ سارا فرحمند²

¹دانشیار گروه علوم سیاسی دانشگاه یاسوج

²کارشناس ارشد علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه پیام نور قزوین

چکیده

      طی یک دهه گذشته، اتحادیه اروپا با چالش ­های بی­سابقه­ ای در جبهه­ های مختلف مانند بحران مالی، بحران مهاجرت، بحران سیاست خارجی(کریمه)، تجزیه و واگرایی (برگزیت) و بحران مشروعیت (پوپولیسم) روبرو بوده است. در این میان بحران پاندمی کرونا اگرچه در نگاه نخست بحرانی بهداشتی به نظر می‌رسد اما از تاثیرات ژئوپلیتیک آن نمی­توان چشم پوشید. پژوهش پیش­رو می­ کوشد تا بر پایه مناظره نئو- نئو و روش آینده ­پژوهی (تکنیک سناریوپردازی)، به این پرسش اصلی پاسخ دهد که با توجه به معضلاتی که بحران کرونا در سطح جهانی پدید آورده است، چه سناریوهایی پیش­روی اتحادیه اروپا قرار دارد؟ آیا این بحران باعث هم­گرایی بیشتر یا کمتر اروپا خواهد شد و یا آن را به مسیر متفاوتی رهنمون خواهد ساخت؟ در پاسخ به این سئوال، بر پایه روند رویدادها، اهداف بازیگران و بهره­ گیری از تکنیک «آشفتگی فکری»، پنج سناریو را در قالب سه دسته ­بندی می­توان مطرح نمود: الف) سناریوی مطلوب یا مرحج؛ تداوم همگرایی اتحادیه اروپا و حفظ قدرت بازیگری در سطح روابط بین­الملل و یا تداوم همگرایی اتحادیه اروپا با رهبری آلمان؛ ب) سناریوی محتمل؛ تبدیل اتحادیه اروپا به کنفدراسیون منطقه ­ای و یا خروج ایتالیا از اتحادیه اروپا؛ ج) سناریوی ممکن؛ واگرایی و فروپاشی اتحادیه اروپا. یافته ­های پژوهش نشان می­دهد که پیامدهای بحران «کووید 19»، اتحادیه اروپا را با مشکلات بی­شماری روبرو کرده است به نحوی که این اتحادیه در مدیریت این بحران دچار ضعف‌هایی شده، از این ­رو قدرت بازیگری اتحادیه اروپا را در سطح داخلی و بین‌المللی به شدت تحت تاثیر قرار داده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

پاندمی ویروس کرونا؛ اتحادیه اروپا؛ همگرایی؛ واگرایی؛ کنفدرالیسم؛ خروج ایتالیا؛ فروپاشی

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