Morphology and effective processes on Sefidroud flow changes to predict horizon 2030

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

Article 5, Volume 10, Issue 1 - Serial Number 37, March 2021, Pages 81-97   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/geoeh.2021.68445.1012

Authors

Hamidreza Masoumi^{* 1}; Alireza Habibi²; Alireza Ghodrati³

¹Department of Geology, Bandar Abbas Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bandar Abbas, Iran

²Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute, Tehran, Iran

³Guilan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center, Rasht, Iran

Abstract

The study area is located in the Sefidroud coastal plain in Guilan province. The required theoretical foundations and basic information have been collected based on library studies and reviews of similar researches. Landsat 5, 7, 8 satellite images with similar imaging seasons from 1987, 2002, and 2018 are the basis for remote sensing studies. The trend of land-use change in 2018 was predicted in the Idrisi TerrSet software based on the maps of 1987 and 2002, using the CA-Markov model. To determine the classification and modeling accuracy, 120 ground control random points were determined and validated by field measurement spatial reality in the study area. The river change forecast map has been obtained with fitting the model output of 2030 and the land use map of 2018. This fitting, the Sefidroud canal was divided into 4 sections in the study area, and predicted changes were examined. The integrated CA-Markov model has a good capability in terms of accuracy in predicting land use and morphology of Sefidroud. The probable changes are in the river, coastal lands, and man-made facilities and plains units in the study area. The process of these changes will be such that will undergo erosion, change in the meandering, and flooding of areas around the river. The river canal cross-sections has exhibited a decreasing trend of canal width until 2018. This is due to the reduction of Sefidroud discharge and the Caspian Sea level fall, increasing the channel width trend will occur according to the results of the CA-Markov model, until 2030. This indicates the possibility of increasing the average annual discharge of Sefidroud to about 100 (m3/s) and rising the Caspian Sea level above -27 (m) until 2030.

Keywords

River channel; Markov chain; Automation cell model; Remote sensing

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