بررسی نقش عوامل طبیعی و انسانی بر تشدید وقوع سیل و آبگرفتگی در شهر کلات

آب و خاک

مقاله 1، دوره 36، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 84، مهر و آبان 1401، صفحه 421-438   

نوع مقاله: مقالات پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.22067/jsw.2022.77163.1173

نویسندگان

سارا عطاران¹؛ ابوالفضل مساعدی^{* 2}؛ حمدالله سجاسی قیداری³

¹گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

²دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

³جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

چکیده

علی‌رغم توسعه علم و فن‌آوری، شواهد نشان می‌دهند که آسیب‌پذیری نسبت به سیل در مقایسه با گذشته افزایش یافته‌است. فعالیت‌های انسانی، تاثیر به‌سزایی در وقوع سیل و خسارات ناشی از آن دارد. به این منظور نیاز است تاثیرات متقابل سیستم انسانی و هیدرولوژیک به دقت بررسی شود. پژوهش حاضر باهدف بررسی تاثیر عوامل طبیعی و انسانی بر تشدید وقوع سیل و آبگرفتگی در شهر کلات (واقع در استان خراسان رضوی) انجام شده‌است. این شهر هرساله شاهد سیل‌هایی است که خسارات زیادی به ساختمان‎های مسکونی، اداری و بناهای تاریخی شهر وارد می‌کند. برای این منظور تاثیر تغییر شدت بارش و تغییر کاربری اراضی بر دبی اوج رواناب بررسی شد، به‌طوری که تغییرات دبی اوج نسبت به افزایش و کاهش 20 درصدی شدت بارندگی و همچنین افزایش و یا کاهش عدد منحنی (CN) براورد شد. همچنین با ارائه چند سناریو، تاثیر تغییر در رویکردهای مدیریتی به منظور کاهش ضریب‌زبری با مدل‌سازی پهنه سیل و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار HEC-RAS مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. از‌ طرفی به منظور تعیین مهم‌ترین عوامل تاثیرگذار در تشدید وقوع سیل و آبگرفتگی، پرسشنامه‌هایی تهیه و نظرات کارشناسی و فنی متخصصین و کارشناسان اجرایی مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. پرسشنامه‌های مذکور بر اساس طیف لیکرت پنج امتیازی طراحی شد، به‌گونه‌ای که عدد 5 نشان‌دهنده بیش‌ترین تاثیر و عدد 1 بیان‌گر کم‌ترین تاثیر می‌باشد. نتایج نشان داد که تاثیر تغییرات عدد منحنی بر میزان دبی اوج حدود 37 برابر بیشتر از تاثیر تغییرات بارش است. همچنین بررسی سناریوهای مختلف به منظور اصلاح ضریب‌زبری نشان می‌دهد که با انجام برنامه‌های مدیریتی مساحت پهنه سیل در بعضی از زیر حوضه‌ها تا 15درصد می‌تواند کاهش یابد. تحلیل نتایج پرسشنامه‌ها نشان می‌دهد که مهم‌ترین عوامل درون‌شهری در تشدید وقوع سیل در داخل شهر کلات عوامل "فعالیت‌های مردم محلی" با میانگین امتیاز 59/3، و در خارج از شهر عوامل "مدیریتی" با میانگین امتیاز 79/3 هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ضریب‌زبری؛ کلات؛ مدیریت سیل؛ هیدرولوژی اجتماعی؛ هیدرولوژی شهری

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