Prioritization and Spatial Analysis of Flood Potential based on FUZZY-AHP Approach (Case Study: Ghamsar Watershed)

جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی

Article 7, Volume 12, Issue 4 - Serial Number 48, February 2024, Pages 139-159   

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: 10.22067/geoeh.2022.76678.1226

Authors

Daniyal sayyad¹; Hoda Ghasemieh^{* 2}; Zahra Naserianasl¹

¹PhD Candidate in Watershed Management Sciences and Engineering, University of kashan, Kashan, Iran

²Associate Professor in Watershed Management Sciences and Engineering, University of kashan, Kashan, Iran

Abstract

Flood is one of the natural disasters that can threaten economic, social and environmental sustainability activities. Therefore, identifying flood-prone areas in the basins is essential. The aim of this research was to prioritize and analyze flooding potential in Ghamsar watershed using multi-criteria decision making models and fuzzy logic. For this purpose, first, 14 effective criteria on basin flooding (including precipitation, elevation, land use, soil texture, lithology, distance to river, slope, drainage density, stream order, Topographic Wetness Index, Stream Power Index, flow accumulation, plan curvature, profile curvature) were identified. Rhen, pairwise comparisons were made between the criteria using the AHP method in Expert choice 11 software and the final weight of each criterion was obtained. Moreover, the criteria were fuzzified using linear and large fuzzy functions, and finally, the final weights obtained for each criterion were applied in the respective layers and the final flood risk map of the basin was prepared. The results of prioritizing quantitative and qualitative criteria based on the opinion of watershed management experts using the AHP method showed that among the 14 proposed criteria, the precipitation criterion with a final weight of 0.229 has the most impact on the flood risk of the basin. Moreover, the criteria of heavy to very heavy soil texture (0.499), Plvav stone unit (0.252), water areas and bare lands with final weights of 0.345 and 0.225, respectively, have a stronger role in the flood risk of the basin. The results of the final flood risk map of the basin showed that about 30.841, 27.056 and 12.406 percent of the total area of the basin are in the medium, high and very high flood risk categories, respectively, and these areas are located mostly in the central part and along the southeast of the basin. Therefore, knowing flood potential of the basin can be effective in formulating crisis management plans when faced with floods.

Keywords

Fuzzy Function; Flood-Prone Areas; Semi-Arid Areas; Expert Choice Software

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